Dynamical evolution and dissolution timescale of young stellar clusters in the Orion star-forming complex

We present a comprehensive analysis of the Orion star-forming complex (OSFC), combining structural, kinematic, and dynamical information to constrain the present-day state and future evolution of its stellar substructures. Using \textit{Gaia} DR3 astrometry and complementary radial velocities from high-resolution spectroscopic surveys, we derived three-dimensional velocity distributions and structural parameters for 13 young clusters. For the stellar component, we estimated a correction of the present-day mass function for observational incompleteness and calculated the virial state, $\alpha_{\rm vir}$, finding that all clusters are supervirial. Direct $N$-body simulations initialized from the present-day global parameters and evolved for 300~Myr in a Galactic potential suggest a separation of the OSFC clusters into two regimes: seven clusters with $\alpha_{\rm vir}\lesssim 7$ evolve in a Galactic-potential-regulated regime that retains a bound core for $\gtrsim 170$ Myr as long-lived open clusters, whereas six clusters with $\alpha_{\rm vir}\gtrsim 7$ enter an internal-dynamics--dominated regime, dissolving before 120 Myr and rapidly populating the Galactic stellar field. For both regimes, a control test indicates negligible cluster--cluster interactions under current OSFC conditions. Finally, long-lived clusters show low-amplitude modulations in the bound fraction correlated with the Galactic vertical motion, consistent with disk-crossing tidal heating and the temporary recapture of marginal members. These results highlight the OSFC as a natural laboratory where heterogeneous initial conditions give rise to persistent open clusters and dispersing groups.