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arxiv: 2606.12798 · v1 · pith:CJSHECP2new · submitted 2026-06-11 · 📡 eess.SY · cs.SY

Pushing the Frontiers for Floating Solar Photovoltaics -- The Case for South America

Soham Ghosh , Anik Goswami , Krishna Kumba This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-06-27 06:17 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 📡 eess.SY cs.SY
keywords floating solar photovoltaicsSouth Americaenergy accesscapacity factorhydropower co-locationwater securitytechno-economic analysis
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The pith

Floating solar photovoltaics in South America can deliver 1500 to 2000 kWh per kW annually with capacity factors above 20 percent.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper introduces a techno-socio-economic framework to evaluate floating solar photovoltaic systems as a land-efficient way to expand clean electricity access in energy-poor regions of South America. It applies the framework through case studies in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana, estimating high energy yields for systems sized 50 to 398 MW and showing competitive costs when avoided land use, shared hydropower infrastructure, and water benefits are included. A sympathetic reader would care because the results point to a pathway for increasing energy access, water security, and grid flexibility without major competition for land in regions with high water-surface potential.

Core claim

Floating solar photovoltaic systems provide a land-efficient pathway to expand clean electricity access in energy-poor regions. South America has among the highest global FSPV potential at approximately 38.26 TWh per million acres of water surface. The techno-socio-economic framework applied to case studies in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana shows estimated yields for 50 to 398 MW systems exceeding 1500 to 2000 kWh per kW annually with capacity factors above 20 percent, and competitive costs with land-based PV when accounting for avoided land use, shared hydropower infrastructure, and water benefits.

What carries the argument

The techno-socio-economic framework that integrates technical yield estimates with socio-economic factors, avoided land use, shared hydropower infrastructure, and water benefits to assess FSPV deployment.

Load-bearing premise

The techno-socio-economic framework and its input data accurately represent real-world conditions, costs, and benefits in the three case-study countries without major unmodeled barriers such as permitting or local water-use conflicts.

What would settle it

Measured annual energy yield from an installed floating solar system of 50 MW or larger in Nicaragua, Honduras, or Guyana falls below 1500 kWh per kW or shows capacity factors under 20 percent.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.12798 by Anik Goswami, Krishna Kumba, Soham Ghosh.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Share of the population with access to electricity. Continents with 90% or less share of the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Share of the population with access to electricity for Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana (2020). [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Comparison of electricity generation sources in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana for 2023 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Waterbodies of interest for FSPV in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: 138/34.5 kV collector and lower level electrical architecture. (a) The collector substation with [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Monthly power generation of the 50 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p025_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Life time energy generation of the 50 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p026_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Monthly power generation of the 50 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p028_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Life time energy generation of the 50 MW FSPV system at Lake Cocibolca. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p029_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Monthly power generation of the 50 MW FSPV system al Lake Yojoa. [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p032_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Life time energy generation of the 50 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p033_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Monthly power generation of the 398 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p034_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Life time energy generation of the 398 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p035_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Monthly power generation of the 95 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p037_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Life time energy generation of the 95 MW, size as established in Table [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p038_15.png] view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Hybrid plant architecture with synchronous machine and DC-coupled FSPV + battery power [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p046_16.png] view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: (a) Application proof of sketch of FSPV over El Cajón dam in Cortés, Honduras, (b) Proof of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p048_17.png] view at source ↗
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: Analysis of cumulative variation of (a) share of electricity generated by low-carbon sources [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p053_18.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Floating solar photovoltaic (FSPV) systems provide a land-efficient pathway to expand clean electricity access in energy-poor regions. South America has among the highest global FSPV potential (approx 38.26 TWh per million acres of water surface), yet deployment remains limited. This study presents a techno-socio-economic framework to assess FSPV for energy access, water security, and grid flexibility, with case studies in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana. Estimated yields for 50 to 398 MW systems exceed 1,500 to 2,000 kWh per kW annually with capacity factors above 20 percent. At El Cajon, FSPV could significantly reduce emissions relative to fossil generation. Results show competitive costs with land-based PV when accounting for avoided land use, shared hydropower infrastructure, and water benefits. The framework also highlights co-location with hydropower and AI data centers, offering a scalable model for deployment in underserved regions.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

1 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript develops a techno-socio-economic framework to evaluate floating solar photovoltaic (FSPV) systems in South America, with case studies in Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guyana. It reports estimated annual yields of 1,500–2,000 kWh/kW and capacity factors >20% for 50–398 MW installations, competitive levelized costs of energy when including co-benefits such as avoided land use and hydropower integration, and a regional potential of approximately 38.26 TWh per million acres of water surface.

Significance. The study addresses an important topic of expanding renewable energy in energy-poor regions through land-efficient FSPV technology. If the underlying framework and data are sound, the results could provide useful insights for policymakers on deployment strategies, co-location opportunities with hydropower, and integration with data centers. The inclusion of socio-economic aspects alongside technical yields is a strength.

major comments (1)
  1. [Abstract and Methods] The abstract states specific quantitative results on yields (1,500–2,000 kWh/kW annually), capacity factors (>20%), and competitive costs but provides no equations, input data sources, assumptions for the 38.26 TWh per million acres figure, capacity factor calculations, or error analysis. The full techno-socio-economic framework is not detailed, making it impossible to assess or reproduce the central claims about performance and competitiveness.
minor comments (1)
  1. The manuscript could clarify the specific locations of the case studies within the three countries and provide references for the external data sources used in the framework.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive review and for recognizing the importance of the topic. We address the major comment on methodological transparency and reproducibility below.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract and Methods] The abstract states specific quantitative results on yields (1,500–2,000 kWh/kW annually), capacity factors (>20%), and competitive costs but provides no equations, input data sources, assumptions for the 38.26 TWh per million acres figure, capacity factor calculations, or error analysis. The full techno-socio-economic framework is not detailed, making it impossible to assess or reproduce the central claims about performance and competitiveness.

    Authors: We agree that the abstract, as a concise summary, does not include equations, data sources, or assumptions. These elements are intended to appear in the Methods section. However, we acknowledge that the current description of the techno-socio-economic framework may lack sufficient explicit detail for full reproducibility and assessment. We will revise the manuscript by expanding the Methods section to include the specific equations for yield and capacity factor calculations, the input data sources, the assumptions and methodology behind the 38.26 TWh per million acres regional potential estimate, and any error or uncertainty analysis performed. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: claims rest on external data and unshown framework without self-referential reduction

full rationale

The paper states South America's FSPV potential as approx 38.26 TWh per million acres and presents yield estimates (1,500–2,000 kWh/kW/yr, CF >20%) from a techno-socio-economic framework applied to case studies, but the provided text contains no equations, fitted parameters, or derivations that reduce outputs to inputs by construction. No self-citations are invoked as load-bearing uniqueness theorems, no ansatz is smuggled, and no renaming of known results occurs. The framework is described at a high level without visible internal loops, making the derivation self-contained against external benchmarks for the purpose of this check. This is the expected honest non-finding for a descriptive modeling study.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 0 axioms · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review provides no explicit free parameters, axioms, or invented entities; the 38.26 TWh figure and yield estimates are stated without derivation details.

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discussion (0)

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