Predictions for the Counts of Faint, High-Redshift Galaxies in the Mid-Infrared

Deep mid-infrared (MIR) observations could reveal a population of faint, high-redshift (z>3) dusty starburst galaxies that are the progenitors of present-day spheroids or bulges, and are beyond the reach of current instruments. We utilize a semi-analytic galaxy formation scheme to find an extreme model for the MIR galaxy counts, designed to maximize the number of detectable sources down to a flux level of a few nJy. The model incorporates the formation of heavily dust-enshrouded stellar populations at high redshift, and is consistent with existing observations, including faint counts at 1.6um in the NICMOS Hubble Deep Field, and the upper limit on the extragalactic MIR background from TeV gamma rays. Our models predict upto 0.5 galaxies/sq.arcsec at the threshold of 100 nJy at 6um, with a comparable or larger surface density at longer MIR wavelengths. We conclude that a significant new population of high-redshift galaxies could be detected by the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF) and Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). Such a population would constitute background noise for the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF), and could necessitate repeat observations: every {\it TPF} resolution element have a 10 percent chance of being contaminated by a background galaxy.