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arxiv: 0805.2808 · v1 · submitted 2008-05-19 · 🧮 math.PR

Dutch book in simple multivariate normal prediction: Another look

classification 🧮 math.PR
keywords bookdutchpredictivedistributionelementaryexistencemethodmultivariate
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In this expository paper we describe a relatively elementary method of establishing the existence of a Dutch book in a simple multivariate normal prediction setting. The method involves deriving a nonstandard predictive distribution that is motivated by invariance. This predictive distribution satisfies an interesting identity which in turn yields an elementary demonstration of the existence of a Dutch book for a variety of possible predictive distributions.

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