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The Independent Chip Model and Risk Aversion

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arxiv 0911.3100 v1 pith:RXMIPBQC submitted 2009-11-16 math.PR

George T. Gilbert This is my paper · ORCID
classification math.PR
keywords expectedfairmodelplayersresultvaluealwayschip
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We consider the Independent Chip Model (ICM) for expected value in poker tournaments. Our first result is that participating in a fair bet with one other player will always lower one's expected value under this model. Our second result is that the expected value for players not participating in a fair bet between two players always increases. We show that neither result necessarily holds for a fair bet among three or more players.

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Cited by 1 Pith paper

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  1. Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model

    cs.GT 2025-05 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Using 2,500 tournament snapshots and 33,478 players, the paper reports that the independent chip model beats a simple baseline and systematically overestimates short stacks while underestimating large stacks.

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