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Testing Hypotheses in Particle Physics: Plots of $p_{0}$ Versus $p_{1}$

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arxiv 1408.6123 v1 pith:64E2C2ZZ submitted 2014-08-26 stat.ME

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keywords hypothesesplotstestingtheyversusapproachbetterdata
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abstract

For situations where we are trying to decide which of two hypotheses $H_{0}$ and $H_{1}$ provides a better description of some data, we discuss the usefulness of plots of $p_{0}$ versus $p_{1}$, where $p_{i}$ is the $p$-value for testing $H_{i}$. They provide an interesting way of understanding the difference between the standard way of excluding $H_{1}$ and the $CL_{s}$ approach; the Punzi definition of sensitivity; the relationship between $p$-values and likelihood ratios; and the probability of observing misleading evidence. They also help illustrate the Law of the Iterated Logarithm and the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox.

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    A fast-simulation study projects that tHγ and ttHγ final states could be observable at the LHC with roughly 7.5σ and 6.6σ significance in 350 fb^-1, assuming the Delphes CMS model and the background list are reliable.

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