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Time Delay Lens Modeling Challenge: I. Experimental Design

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arxiv 1801.01506 v4 pith:X3AUO6XW submitted 2018-01-04 astro-ph.CO astro-ph.GA

classification astro-ph.COastro-ph.GA
keywords challengetimedelaylensrungmodelingsystemsdeadline
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

Strong gravitational lenses with measured time delay are a powerful tool to measure cosmological parameters, especially the Hubble constant ($H_0$). Recent studies show that by combining just three multiply-imaged AGN systems, one can determine $H_0$ to 2.4% precision. Furthermore, the number of time-delay lens systems is growing rapidly, enabling the determination of $H_0$ to 1% precision in the near future. However, as the precision increases it is important to ensure that systematic errors and biases remain subdominant. For this purpose, challenges with simulated datasets are a key component in this process. Following the experience of the past challenge on time delay, where it was shown that time delays can indeed be measured precisely and accurately at the sub-percent level, we now present the "Time Delay Lens Modeling Challenge" (TDLMC). The goal of this challenge is to assess the present capabilities of lens modeling codes and assumptions and test the level of accuracy of inferred cosmological parameters given realistic mock datasets. We invite scientists to model a set of simulated HST observations of 50 mock lens systems. The systems are organized in rungs, with the complexity and realism increasing going up the ladder. The goal of the challenge is to infer $H_0$ for each rung, given the HST images, the time delay, and stellar velocity dispersion of the deflector for a fixed background cosmology. The TDLMC challenge starts with the mock data release on 2018 January 8th. The deadline for blind submission is different for each rung. The deadline for Rung 0-1 is 2018 September 8; the deadline for Rung 2 is 2019 April 8 and the one for Rung 3 is 2019 September 8. This first paper gives an overview of the challenge including the data design, and a set of metrics to quantify the modeling performance and challenge details.

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  1. Blinded Mock Data Challenge for Gravitational-Wave Cosmology-I: Assessing the Robustness of Methods Using Binary Black Holes Mass Spectrum

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    A blinded mock data challenge shows that ignoring a mild redshift evolution in binary black hole masses biases the gravitational-wave Hubble constant measurement by about 1.5 sigma at LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA O4 sensitivity.

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