Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions

As of 16 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 44 of 44 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:1908.05955.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
1908.05955 v2

Coverage vector

measured 44 of 44 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.654271Z

measured 44 of 44 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

44 of 44 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy32
unresolved12
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation a5d6b340-4832-42de-9a95-e3a53cdbb7f6 · outbound

This paper cites Developing and evaluating complex intervention s: the new medical research council guidance.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Developing and evaluating complex intervention s: the new medical research council guidance

Reference 1

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.328081Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 2333f44d-ca01-4018-b73a-8a496c5ecefe · outbound

This paper cites Eldridge, Gillian A.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Eldridge, Gillian A

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.312982Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 1a6a444b-e9f4-4a8b-94e9-79c9dff68514 · outbound

This paper cites Lancaster, Susanna Dodd, and Paula R.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Lancaster, Susanna Dodd, and Paula R

Reference 3

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.297618Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation ab345e18-d4b0-4f9d-b9dc-6b2e9fbaf47d · outbound

This paper cites Research for patient beneﬁt (rfpb) programme guidance on applying for feasibility studies, 2017.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Research for patient beneﬁt (rfpb) programme guidance on applying for feasibility studies, 2017

Reference 4

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.281296Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 481254fe-94ad-4ce7-a426-f8c9edafd513 · outbound

This paper cites CONSORT 2010 statement: extension to randomised pilot and feasibility trials.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions CONSORT 2010 statement: extension to randomised pilot and feasibility trials

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.265638Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation b2604653-4153-41dc-99a2-7110c33388ee · outbound

This paper cites Informing eﬃcient randomised controlled trials: exp lo- ration of challenges in developing progression criteria for internal p ilot stud- ies.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Informing eﬃcient randomised controlled trials: exp lo- ration of challenges in developing progression criteria for internal p ilot stud- ies

Reference 6

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.250072Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 0aaec81a-e39c-4d85-ab07-d484e7fb27c6 · outbound

This paper cites A framework for prospectively deﬁning progression rules for inter nal pilot studies monitoring recruitment.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions A framework for prospectively deﬁning progression rules for inter nal pilot studies monitoring recruitment

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.232595Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 9cb6797a-c344-46ab-a6d9-980e8de932f6 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.216448Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 2e6d9b8e-ae08-4933-bc07-8393a6162ee7 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.201173Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 3219cbde-682e-424c-9a92-b34709dd55a3 · outbound

This paper cites The size of a pilot study for a clinical tr ial should be calculated in relation to considerations of precision and eﬃc iency.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions The size of a pilot study for a clinical tr ial should be calculated in relation to considerations of precision and eﬃc iency

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.184424Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation b9656d93-0760-4457-b9e1-f54191340099 · outbound

This paper cites Sample size requirements to estimate k ey de- sign parameters from external pilot randomised controlled trials: a simula- tion study.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Sample size requirements to estimate k ey de- sign parameters from external pilot randomised controlled trials: a simula- tion study

Reference 11

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.168943Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 3a9f6e54-6c0f-4aeb-9691-a28ddfb85c53 · outbound

This paper cites How big should the pilot study for my cluste r randomised trial be? Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 2015.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions How big should the pilot study for my cluste r randomised trial be? Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 2015

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.510232Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f4bb2b74-afea-494e-8cac-54f56ad12fcc · outbound

This paper cites Estimating the sample size for a pilot randomised trial to min- imise the overall trial sample size for the external pilot and main trial for a continuous outcome variable.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Estimating the sample size for a pilot randomised trial to min- imise the overall trial sample size for the external pilot and main trial for a continuous outcome variable

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.143104Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation b012c16d-4acf-4cec-983f-18c9a2e7b873 · outbound

This paper cites A simple formula for the calculation of sa mple size in pilot studies.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions A simple formula for the calculation of sa mple size in pilot studies

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.126965Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation ec8e7b50-6080-4f05-a1bc-8a52173e1ea8 · outbound

This paper cites Are pilot trials useful for predicting randomisat ion and attrition rates in deﬁnitive studies: A review of publicly funded tr ials.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Are pilot trials useful for predicting randomisat ion and attrition rates in deﬁnitive studies: A review of publicly funded tr ials

Reference 15

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.111289Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation b2c62695-85a9-4284-bf3f-f1d332795e90 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.528393Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 918e73d8-97e5-4abc-8a0e-053cba3a97b3 · outbound

This paper cites Stevens, and Michael J.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Stevens, and Michael J

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.532715Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7269bb47-2a1e-4fc3-8ebf-261a7d11dc96 · outbound

This paper cites Pract ical experiences of adopting assurance as a quantitative framework t o support decision making in drug development.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Pract ical experiences of adopting assurance as a quantitative framework t o support decision making in drug development

Reference 18

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.076122Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation fd048116-3e97-42b4-967b-17dda81c9408 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.061242Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 7727bfe4-c365-4745-8f08-b4b6f22c8c8c · outbound

This paper cites Walley, Claire L.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Walley, Claire L

Reference 20

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.047099Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 12b95002-61f8-4c30-b898-434c5daa530b · outbound

This paper cites A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other re gres- sion models.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other re gres- sion models

Reference 21

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.032956Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation e6e833f3-8911-44c3-b7aa-65928e3e406d · outbound

This paper cites Spiegelhalter.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Spiegelhalter

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.018775Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation a2a2ff89-f5dd-43c2-87b5-8db6f82535cb · outbound

This paper cites Better decisio n mak- ing in drug development through adoption of formal prior elicitation.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Better decisio n mak- ing in drug development through adoption of formal prior elicitation

Reference 23

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:10.003484Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 04665655-147b-4641-aa2a-8ada48923379 · outbound

This paper cites Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Buck, Alireza Daneshkhah, J

Reference 24

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.989371Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 105db860-9d08-4c4a-ac2e-ed9537b96287 · outbound

This paper cites Statistical Decision Theory.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Statistical Decision Theory

Reference 25

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.974823Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 6f9e1378-81f7-4520-80b7-895f4a384afe · outbound

This paper cites Keeney and Howard Raiﬀa.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Keeney and Howard Raiﬀa

Reference 26

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.960096Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 75f731fe-1163-41f8-a62d-c4bf25e61d18 · outbound

This paper cites Research exploring physical activity in care homes (REACH): study pro- tocol for a randomised controlled trial.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Research exploring physical activity in care homes (REACH): study pro- tocol for a randomised controlled trial

Reference 27

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.946179Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 8311238a-e571-44c5-ab83-d1ad7bc9afc8 · outbound

This paper cites RStan: the R interface to Stan, 2016.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions RStan: the R interface to Stan, 2016

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.931602Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 371eb550-c05b-44a0-bc81-a456a10d6417 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 29

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.915680Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 5177d805-b839-475f-95ce-702564be7966 · outbound

This paper cites Mander, James M.S.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Mander, James M.S

Reference 30

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.898818Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 8540d0a7-f1c2-4452-aeed-a59da3c0299d · outbound

This paper cites Current sample size conventions: Flaws, har ms, and al- ternatives.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Current sample size conventions: Flaws, har ms, and al- ternatives

Reference 31

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.884276Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation c717721f-0eb4-44ea-a5f5-5efd1c8039db · outbound

This paper cites Sutton, Nicola J.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Sutton, Nicola J

Reference 32

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.869211Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation c59f9a20-4419-4426-a97d-f5b6f27deee8 · outbound

This paper cites Oakley, and Alan Brennan.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Oakley, and Alan Brennan

Reference 33

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.853801Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 68304ed8-2108-4808-aff6-ea2098a9ccdb · outbound

This paper cites Es- timating the expected value of sample information using the probabilis tic sensitivity analysis sample: a fast, nonparametric regression-bas ed method.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Es- timating the expected value of sample information using the probabilis tic sensitivity analysis sample: a fast, nonparametric regression-bas ed method

Reference 34

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.837619Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 7ecc0fd6-f14e-4726-9f5e-8195e6e9a94f · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 35

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.612146Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5e670837-9ecb-40c0-b7ac-5d566f2cd1ac · outbound

This paper cites DiceKriging , DiceOptim: Two R packages for the analysis of computer experiment s by kriging-based metamodeling and optimization.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions DiceKriging , DiceOptim: Two R packages for the analysis of computer experiment s by kriging-based metamodeling and optimization

Reference 36

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.616779Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 262339c6-2ee9-4a15-a4d8-87ecc5e35a1f · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 37

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.801157Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 364770f5-af2a-4004-81b0-42fc3e7c0ecc · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 38

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.626418Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 18f6a591-7564-44c9-9f43-634dd8bbda94 · outbound

This paper cites McCulloch, and Mark R.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions McCulloch, and Mark R

Reference 39

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.773829Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 73d2f522-2a28-4313-a5ea-0de3bc354aae · outbound

This paper cites Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporatin g his- torical data.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporatin g his- torical data

Reference 40

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.756260Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation c169d0d2-bdfe-457e-8a0e-21345354a4ca · outbound

This paper cites Optimal sample sizes for phase II clinical trials and pilot studies.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Optimal sample sizes for phase II clinical trials and pilot studies

Reference 41

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.740803Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 05d1c480-51ac-4a31-aee1-00d79bde4bda · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Unresolved cited work

Reference 42

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.725037Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 628b6e96-a0fe-44e7-800f-c1d87041dca1 · outbound

This paper cites Sam- ple size planning for phase II trials based on success probabilities for phase III.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Sam- ple size planning for phase II trials based on success probabilities for phase III

Reference 43

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.708400Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 92a3dc3e-1697-47fb-8e8e-1b9a9f072971 · outbound

This paper cites Utility-based optimization of phase II/III programs.

Bayesian design and analysis of external pilot trials for complex interventions Utility-based optimization of phase II/III programs

Reference 44

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T13:06:09.692453Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.