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A spatio-temporal model to understand forest fires causality in Europe

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arxiv 2003.05227 v1 pith:YMOM5SV2 submitted 2020-03-11 stat.AP

Oscar Rodriguez de Rivera , Antonio López-Quílez , Marta Blangiardo , Martyna Wasilewska This is my paper · ORCID
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Forest fires are the outcome of a complex interaction between environmental factors, topography and socioeconomic factors (Bedia et al, 2014). Therefore, understand causality and early prediction are crucial elements for controlling such phenomenon and saving lives.The aim of this study is to build spatio-temporal model to understand causality of forest fires in Europe, at NUTS2 level between 2012 and 2016, using environmental and socioeconomic variables.We have considered a disease mapping approach, commonly used in small area studies to assess thespatial pattern and to identify areas characterised by unusually high or low relative risk.

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