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Robust Multiple Stopping -- A Pathwise Duality Approach

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arxiv 2006.01802 v2 pith:RBN3OX2A submitted 2020-06-02 math.PR q-fin.RM

classification math.PRq-fin.RM
keywords multiplestoppingapproachgeneraloptimalrobustboundsdevelop
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We develop a method to solve, theoretically and numerically, general optimal stopping problems. Our general setting allows for multiple exercise rights, i.e., optimal multiple stopping, for a robust evaluation that accounts for model uncertainty, and for general reward processes driven by multi-dimensional jump-diffusions. Our approach relies on first establishing robust martingale dual representation results for the multiple stopping problem that satisfy appealing pathwise optimality (i.e., almost sure) properties. Next, we exploit these theoretical results to develop upper and lower bounds that, as we formally show, not only converge to the true solution asymptotically, but also constitute genuine pre-limiting upper and lower bounds. We illustrate the applicability of our approach in a few examples and analyze the impact of model uncertainty on optimal multiple stopping strategies.

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  1. `Regression Anytime' with Brute-Force SVD Truncation

    math.ST 2019-08 conditional novelty 7.0 of 10

    RAWBFST, a least-squares Monte Carlo method with brute-force SVD truncation, provably approximates conditional expectations with derivative weights at any prescribed polynomial convergence rate under sufficient smoothness.

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