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A different approach for choosing a threshold in peaks over threshold

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arxiv 2006.05748 v1 pith:ECNWULG5 submitted 2020-06-10 stat.ME stat.OT

Andréhette Verster (1) , Lizanne Raubenheimer (2) ((1) Department of Mathematical Statistics , Actuarial Science , University of the Free State , Bloemfontein , South Africa , (2) School of Mathematical , Statistical Sciences
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North-West University Potchefstroom South Africa)
This is my paper · ORCID
classification stat.MEstat.OT
keywords thresholdapproachchoicechoosingdistributionextremegeneralizedhigh
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Abstract In Extreme Value methodology the choice of threshold plays an important role in efficient modelling of observations exceeding the threshold. The threshold must be chosen high enough to ensure an unbiased extreme value index but choosing the threshold too high results in uncontrolled variances. This paper investigates a generalized model that can assist in the choice of optimal threshold values in the \gamma positive domain. A Bayesian approach is considered by deriving a posterior distribution for the unknown generalized parameter. Using the properties of the posterior distribution allows for a method to choose an optimal threshold without visual inspection.

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