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Estimating Active Cases of COVID-19

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arxiv 2108.03284 v1 pith:A3VU2RCU submitted 2021-08-06 physics.soc-ph cs.DCstat.CO

Javier Álvarez , Carlos Baquero , Elisa Cabana , Jaya Prakash Champati , Antonio Fernández Anta , Davide Frey , Augusto García-Agúndez , Chryssis Georgiou
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Mathieu Goessens Harold Hernández Rosa Lillo Raquel Menezes Raúl Moreno Nicolas Nicolaou Oluwasegun Ojo Antonio Ortega Jesús Rufino Efstathios Stavrakis Govind Jeevan Christin Glorioso
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classification physics.soc-phcs.DCstat.CO
keywords casesactivecovid-19datacapacityconfirmedtestingaccurate
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Having accurate and timely data on confirmed active COVID-19 cases is challenging, since it depends on testing capacity and the availability of an appropriate infrastructure to perform tests and aggregate their results. In this paper, we propose methods to estimate the number of active cases of COVID-19 from the official data (of confirmed cases and fatalities) and from survey data. We show that the latter is a viable option in countries with reduced testing capacity or suboptimal infrastructures.

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