Agent-based model and data assimilation: Analysis of COVID-19 in Tokyo

In this paper we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach for studying the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other cities, regions or countries could have been equally chosen. A novel method for evaluating the effective reproduction number is one of the main outcome of our approach. Other unknown parameters and unknown populations are also evaluated. Uncertain quantities, as for example the ratio of symptomatic / asymptomatic agents, are tested and discussed, and the stability of our computations is examined. Detailed explanations are provided for the model and for the assimilation process.