Finite Sample Performance Analysis of MIMO Systems Identification

This paper is concerned with the finite sample identification performance of an n dimensional discrete-time Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) Linear Time-Invariant system, with p inputs and m outputs. We prove that the widely-used Ho-Kalman algorithm and Multivariable Output Error State Space (MOESP) algorithm are ill-conditioned for MIMO systems when n/m or n/p is large. Moreover, by analyzing the Cra\'mer-Rao bound, we derive a fundamental limit for identifying the real and stable (or marginally stable) poles of MIMO system and prove that the sample complexity for any unbiased pole estimation algorithm to reach a certain level of accuracy explodes superpolynomially with respect to n/(pm). Numerical results are provided to illustrate the ill-conditionedness of Ho-Kalman algorithm and MOESP algorithm as well as the fundamental limit on identification.