System-Wide Emergency Policy for Transitioning from Main to Secondary Fuel

Faced with the complexities of managing natural gas-dependent power system amid the surge of renewable integration and load unpredictability, this study explores strategies for navigating emergency transitions to costlier secondary fuels. Our aim is to develop decision-support tools for operators during such exigencies. We approach the problem through a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework, accounting for multiple uncertainties. These include the potential for dual-fuel generator failures and operator response during high-pressure situations. Additionally, we consider the finite reserves of primary fuel, governed by gas-flow partial differential equations (PDEs) and constrained by nodal pressure. Other factors include the variability in power forecasts due to renewable generation and the economic impact of compulsory load shedding. For tractability, we address the MDP in a simplified context, replacing it by Markov Processes evaluated against a selection of policies and scenarios for comparison. Our study considers two models for the natural gas system: an over-simplified model tracking linepack and a more nuanced model that accounts for gas flow network heterogeneity. The efficacy of our methods is demonstrated using a realistic model replicating Israel's power-gas infrastructure.