Treatment Effect Estimation Amidst Dynamic Network Interference in Online Gaming Experiments

The evolving landscape of online multiplayer gaming presents unique challenges in assessing the causal impacts of game features. Traditional A/B testing methodologies fall short due to complex player interactions, leading to violations of fundamental assumptions like the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA). Unlike traditional social networks with stable and long-term connections, networks in online games are often dynamic and short-lived. Players are temporarily teamed up for the duration of a game, forming transient networks that dissolve once the game ends. This fleeting nature of interactions presents a new challenge compared with running experiments in a stable social network. This study introduces a novel framework for treatment effect estimation in online gaming environments, considering the dynamic and ephemeral network interference that occurs among players. We propose an innovative estimator tailored for scenarios where a completely randomized experimental design is implemented without explicit knowledge of network structures. Notably, our method facilitates post-hoc interference adjustment on experimental data, significantly reducing the complexities and costs associated with intricate experimental designs and randomization strategies. The proposed framework stands out for its ability to accommodate varying levels of interference, thereby yielding more accurate and robust estimations. Through comprehensive simulations set against a variety of interference scenarios, along with empirical validation using real-world data from a mobile gaming environment, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. This study represents a pioneering effort in exploring causal inference in user-randomized experiments impacted by dynamic network effects.