Bounds on galaxy stochasticity from halo occupation distribution modeling

The joint probability distribution of matter overdensity and galaxy counts in cells is a powerful probe of cosmology, and the extent to which variance in galaxy counts at fixed matter density deviates from Poisson shot noise is not fully understood. The lack of informed bounds on this stochasticity is currently the limiting factor in constraining cosmology with the galaxy-matter PDF. We investigate stochasticity in the conditional distribution of galaxy counts at fixed matter density and present a halo occupation distribution (HOD)-based approach for obtaining plausible ranges for stochasticity parameters. To probe the high-dimensional space of possible galaxy-matter connections, we derive HODs which conserve linear galaxy bias and number density to produce redMaGiC-like galaxy catalogs within the AbacusSummit suite of N-body simulations. We study the impact of individual HOD parameters and cosmology on stochasticity and perform a Monte Carlo search in HOD parameter space, subject to the constraints on bias and density. In mock catalogs generated by the selected HODs, shot noise in galaxy counts spans both sub-Poisson and super-Poisson values, ranging from 80% to 133% of Poisson variance at mean matter density. Nearly all derived HODs show a positive relationship between local matter density and stochasticity. For galaxy catalogs with higher stochasticity, quadratic galaxy bias is required for an accurate description of the conditional PDF of galaxy counts at fixed matter density. The presence of galaxy assembly bias also substantially extends the range of stochasticity in the super-Poisson direction. This HOD-based approach leverages degrees of freedom in the galaxy-halo connection to obtain informed bounds on model nuisance parameters and can be adapted to other parametrizations of stochasticity, in particular to motivate prior ranges for cosmological analyses.