Crowd Size Estimation for Non-Uniform Spatial Distributions with mmWave Radar

In this paper, we present a novel methodology for crowd size estimation using monostatic mmWave radar. Our aim is to accurately count large crowds that follow a non-uniform spatial distribution. Our estimation approach relies on the rigorous derivation of occlusion probabilities, which are then used to mathematically characterize the probability distributions that describe the number of agents visible to the radar as a function of the crowd size. We then estimate the true crowd size by comparing these derived mathematical models to the empirical distribution of the number of visible agents detected by the radar. This method requires minimal sensing capabilities (e.g., angle-of-arrival information is not needed), thus being well suited for either a dedicated mmWave radar or an integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) system. Extensive numerical simulations validate our methodology, demonstrating strong performance across diverse spatial distributions and for crowd sizes of up to (and including) 30 agents. We achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.48 agents, significantly outperforming a baseline which assumes that the agents are uniformly distributed in the area. Overall, our approach holds significant promise for a variety of applications including network resource allocation, crowd management, and urban planning.