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Seismic swarms unveil the mechanisms driving shallow slow slip dynamics in the Copiap\'o ridge, Northern Chile

T0 review · 4 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-12 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read The 2023 shallow slow slip under the Copiapó ridge in Chile was initiated and later accelerated by migrating pulses of overpressured fluid trapped around a subducted seamount.

desk verdict A robust GNSS detection of the first shallow SSE in the Copiapó ridge, with a fluid-pressure mechanism that currently leans on an unpublished high-res catalog; the observation deserves peer review, the mechanism should be treated as a hypothesis. read the letter →

arxiv 2411.18490 v1 pith:ULZNLOKJ submitted 2024-11-27 physics.geo-ph

Jannes Münchmeyer , Diego Molina , Mathilde Radiguet , David Marsan , Juan-Carlos Baez , Francisco Ortega-Culaciati , Andres Tassara , Marcos Moreno
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Anne Socquet
This is my paper · ORCID
classification physics.geo-ph
keywords slowslipeventseismicswarmfluidoverpressuresubductedseamountmegathrustsegmentationCopiapóridgesubductionzoneGNSSgeodesy
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper reports the first shallow slow slip event (SSE) observed in Northern Chile: a month-long episode in September–October 2023 on the subduction megathrust, with geodetic moment magnitude $M_w=6.6$ and peak slip of about 5 cm, located between 25 and 35 km depth. It argues that the SSE was initiated and accelerated by migrating pulses of overpressured fluid trapped in the fluid-rich surroundings of a subducted seamount on the Copiapó ridge, rather than by frictional creep alone. The evidence combines a dense migrating seismic swarm that began before the geodetic acceleration, a five-day seismic quiet period read as a structural permeability seal, and a sharp expansion of both slip and seismicity after an $M_L=5.3$ earthquake that is inferred to have broken that seal. If the interpretation is right, shallow slow slip and its accompanying swarms can reveal how pore pressure and fine-scale fault segmentation, not just friction, decide whether a fault creeps slowly or ruptures fast, and how a moderate earthquake can suddenly enlarge a slow rupture.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing mechanism is a migrating pore-pressure pulse on a fluid-rich, structurally segmented plate interface. A subducted seamount and its fractured surroundings supply and structurally confine overpressured fluids, lowering effective normal stress and triggering clustered, double-migrating seismicity; a permeability seal, marked by a five-day quiet period, holds the pulse until an $M_L=5.3$ earthquake breaks it, releasing the pulse to migrate bilaterally at about 3.5 km/day and drive the slow-slip front. The mechanism is embedded in a structural model of the interface as a thin fault volume (less than 250 m thick) containing small seismic asperities up to roughly 2 km horizontally and 50 m vertically, clustered fractally down to about 40 m, within an aseismic, fluid-infiltrated creeping matrix. That structure explains the magnitude scale break near $M_L=3.2$ in the onset cluster and the observed partitioning of moment release between seismic and aseismic slip.

What would settle it

Relocate the 2023 swarm hypocenters with an independent velocity model or with local-array/borehole constraints: if the relative positions of the initiation-cluster events shift by more than the claimed 50–100 m uncertainty, the inferred sub-250-m interface thickness, seamount-edge confinement, and migration velocities that carry the pressure-pulse argument are called into question. A complementary test would be a seafloor geodetic and ocean-bottom seismometer deployment during a future Copiapó swarm to check whether the migrating seismic front is accompanied by a migrating aseismic slip and pore-pressure front, as the model requires.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The authors document a shallow SSE that began around September 1, 2023, with slip concentrated at 25–35 km depth along a roughly 100 km along-strike patch, peaking at about 5 cm on the edge of the inferred subducted seamount and releasing geodetic moment $M_w=6.6$. Swarm seismicity began on August 26 on the seamount's northern flank; on September 1 a narrow downdip cluster (about 10 by 3 km) turned on with a dual migration pattern, a main front moving at 2–5 km/day punctuated by bursts faster than 15 km/day. After a five-day quiet period, an $M_L=5.3$ interface earthquake on September 11 marked the start of bilateral seismicity migration at about 3.5 km/day and the geodetic acceleration, which the authors interpret as rupture of a structural permeability seal that released a confined fluid-overpressure pulse and expanded the slow slip. The whole sequence's seismic moment was only about 1.6% of the geodetic moment, and the relocated hypocenters show the interface is seismically active only on small, disconnected patches (up to about 50 m vertically and 2 km horizontally) within a fault volume thinner than 250 m, clustered fractally down to the catalog's roughly 40 m resolution. The paper concludes that pressure pulses migrating on a fluid-infiltrated, structurally segmented interface, with seismic asperities embedded in a slowly creeping matrix, drove the SSE and its swarms, and that historic swarms on the same interface patches show the process is recurrent and structurally controlled.

Load-bearing premise

The whole fine-scale picture — the thin interface volume, the seamount-edge confinement, the 2–5 and >15 km-per-day migration velocities, and the resemblance of historic swarms — rests on the deep-learning earthquake catalog's relative hypocenters being accurate to a few tens of meters, so any systematic bias in the velocity model or in event association could make those structures appear real when they are not.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Shallow SSEs can occur in Northern Chile, and the region's persistently low locking may reflect intermittent slow slip with swarms rather than steady aseismic creep.
  • A moderate interface earthquake can act as a switch: by breaking a permeability seal it can abruptly accelerate and expand an ongoing slow slip event.
  • The same interface patches were reactivated in swarms from 2015 to 2023, implying that the seamount-controlled segmentation is stable on at least a decadal timescale and that SSE recurrence with highly variable moment release is plausible.
  • Because seismic moment release was only about 1.6% of the geodetic moment, megathrust models for this area must treat slip as distributed between small seismic asperities and a slowly creeping, fluid-infiltrated matrix rather than as uniform frictional sliding.
  • The seismic patches encircling the seamount imply that although the Copiapó ridge has repeatedly acted as a barrier to large ruptures, a megathrust earthquake with sufficient along-dip extent could still break through this barrier.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • If the pressure-pulse mechanism generalizes, other subducting ridges and seamounts with fluid-rich damage zones should host shallow SSEs with the same two-phase pattern—localized, swarm-ridden initiation followed by bilateral expansion after a seal-breaking earthquake—and existing seismic and geodetic records along ridge subduction segments could be re-examined to search for it.
  • The paper implies that geodetic coupling maps may overstate steady fault locking where slip is actually intermittent: short-lived SSEs beneath the coast could account for low apparent coupling, so seismic hazard estimates should incorporate transient strain accumulation and release rather than time-averaged locking.
  • A direct modeling extension would couple rate-and-state friction with pore-pressure diffusion on a fractal asperity interface; reproducing the dual migration velocities and the magnitude scale break near 3.2 would strengthen the causal link between fluid pressure and the observed slow slip.
  • Historic swarms with widely varying seismic moment suggest the region may host repeated SSEs of very different magnitudes; offshore geodetic and ocean-bottom seismic monitoring, which the paper notes would be needed to resolve short-timescale intermittence, should be a priority for testing recurrence.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

4 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper reports a seismo-geodetic observation of a shallow slow slip event (SSE) in September–October 2023 in the Copiapó ridge segment of the North Chilean subduction zone. Using 18 GNSS stations, the authors detect a ~month-long seaward transient, invert it with an elastic dislocation model (geodetic Mw 6.6, peak slip ~5 cm near the subducted seamount), and combine it with a deep-learning derived earthquake catalog (Munchmeyer et al., in prep) to document dense, migrating seismic swarms. They identify an initiation cluster on the edge of the seamount, a M_L 5.3 event after a 5-day quiescence, and a bilateral ~3.5 km/day migration of seismicity. From these patterns and a comparison with historical swarms, they infer that the SSE was driven by structurally confined fluid overpressure, that the M_L 5.3 event broke a permeability seal, and that the seismicity is controlled by seismic asperities embedded in a slowly creeping, fluid-rich interface. The paper concludes that recurrent SSEs control the swarm activity and that the ridge acts as a persistent seismic barrier.

Significance. Understanding shallow SSE initiation and its relationship to seismicity is an important open problem, and this study provides an unusually complete observational sequence of an SSE initiation. The GNSS detection appears robust: 18 coastal/forearc stations show coherent transient motion, the authors perform common-mode and station-subsampling checks, and the slip inversion is standard with L-curve regularization. The use of a high-resolution catalog to image migration and interface structure is methodologically attractive. If the observations and catalog are correct, the paper would be among the first to image the initiation phase of a shallow SSE at sub-kilometer resolution and to link seamount-related fluid overpressure to SSE dynamics; the comparison with historical swarms also adds value. However, the quantitative mechanistic claims (pressure pulses, permeability seal, <250 m interface thickness) are supported only indirectly and rely on an unpublished companion catalog; at present the paper is best regarded as a well-posed hypothesis backed by robust geodetic detection, not as a closed mechanistic demonstration.

major comments (4)
  1. [Section 1, Figs. S1–S2, Open Research] The paper's mechanistic conclusions are built on relative hypocenter accuracy at the 50–100 m level that is claimed for Munchmeyer et al. (in prep), a catalog that is not included in the manuscript and is cited only as 'in prep.' The <250 m interface thickness, the 2–5 km/day and >15 km/day migrations, the splay-fault geometry, and the sub-kilometer recurrence of patches all depend on this catalog. Figures S1–S2 provide bootstrap uncertainties, but they do not test the sensitivity of relative locations to the 3D velocity model, to phase-association completeness, or to the changing network geometry between the 2015–2020 and 2023 deployments. As the causal fluid-overpressure story cannot be audited without these data, I ask the authors to provide the catalog (as a supplement or with a DOI) and to add targeted robustness tests. Without that, the central mechanistic claim rests on evidence that is not verifiable.
  2. [Section 3, Fig. S6] The main text states that the initiation swarm is 'interspersed with bursts migrating with velocities above 15 km/day' and uses this as evidence for the double-migration signature of pressure pulses, yet the caption of Figure S6 explicitly states that 'we are not able to determine a reliable migration velocity estimate' for these fast bursts. These two statements are contradictory. If the fast migration velocity cannot be measured reliably, it should not be presented as a quantitative observation. Please either remove the >15 km/day claim or replace it with a properly estimated value and its uncertainty.
  3. [Section 5, Fig. 5, Abstract] The permeability-seal and fluid-overpressure interpretation is inferred from a 5-day seismic quiescence and from the absence of events in a narrow gap in the initiation cluster. Seismic quiescence is a negative observation; the authors do not demonstrate that the gap is complete at the relevant magnitude level, and they do not compare the fluid hypothesis with alternatives such as a slow-slip front interacting with spatially heterogeneous frictional properties or with a geometrical barrier. The abstract's statement that the SSE 'is driven by structurally-confined fluid overpressure' is therefore stronger than the present evidence justifies. The authors should either add a quantitative test that distinguishes pore-pressure waves from aseismic stress transfer (e.g., a rate-and-state or pore-pressure-diffusion model comparison) or temper the causal language to a hypothesis.
  4. [Section 2, Fig. 2] The location of the peak slip 'on the edge of the inferred subducted seamount' is a key element of the structural argument, but the inversion uses 10-km triangular patches, a smoothing length of λ = 10 km, and on-shore GNSS stations only. No formal resolution test (e.g., checkerboard recovery or resolution-matrix analysis) is reported, and the slip patch may be poorly resolved along dip. Please add a resolution analysis and state explicitly how well the peak-slip position and the along-strike extent are constrained; if the resolution is marginal, the structural interpretation should be rephrased accordingly.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Text S2, equation] Please write the arctangent argument with a full set of parentheses, e.g., a_nj arctan(2π(t − t_i)/t_d) + b_nj, to avoid ambiguity in the current typeset formula.
  2. [Section 2] The '~1.6%' seismic-to-geodetic moment ratio should specify that the seismic moment is computed from the catalog above its completeness magnitude; otherwise the ratio depends on the detection threshold and is not well defined.
  3. [Figure S1] The interpretation of a higher fractal dimension in the permanent catalog as due to the Coquimbo aftershock sequence needs either a supporting analysis or an explicit caveat that completeness differences can bias correlation integrals.
  4. [Section 5] The reference 'Figure S6 right' should be replaced with a specific panel reference, since Figure S6 contains map and cross-section panels.
  5. [Abstract and Plain Language Summary] The phrase 'likely trigger[ed] an increase in interface permeability' is presented more declaratively in the abstract than in the body; please make the level of certainty consistent throughout the manuscript.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 2.0 of 10

No structural circularity: the SSE is detected from independent GNSS data, and the fluid-pressure mechanism is a hypothesis supported by external models; the main transparency concern is reliance on an unpublished self-cited seismic catalog.

full rationale

This paper is an observational interpretation, not a derivation, and no load-bearing step reduces to its own inputs by construction. The 2023 SSE is detected from GNSS displacements processed and detrended as described in Texts S1–S2, then inverted with a standard elastic half-space model (Text S3); these geodetic data are independent of the deep-learning seismic catalog. The migration patterns, interface thickness (<250 m), and splay-fault locations do come from the self-cited companion catalog (Münchmeyer et al., in prep), but the paper itself quantifies the catalog's relative location precision via bootstrap analysis (Figure S2), and the mechanistic narrative—fluid overpressure, a permeability seal broken by the ML 5.3 event, migrating pressure pulses—is presented as a hypothesis consistent with external modeling (Dublanchet & De Barros, 2021; Cruz-Atienza et al., 2018; Danré et al., 2022), not derived from those citations. The paper also flags its own limitations, e.g., being unable to determine a reliable fast-migration velocity (Figure S6) and noting that a secondary slip patch may be a resolution artifact. These are robustness and transparency concerns about the unpublished catalog, not circularity: no fitted parameter is renamed as a prediction, and no equation is defined in terms of the result it is used to explain. The score reflects the minor but real self-citation/transparency issue, not a circular derivation.

Assumptions & free parameters 4 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 1 invented entities

The central claim rests on the existence of a shallow SSE, supported by GNSS data, and on an interpretive model involving fluid overpressure, a permeability seal, and seismic asperities in a creeping matrix. The free parameters are standard inversion choices. The remaining added structure is the permeability seal, which is inferred from the observations themselves. The most consequential unverified input is the high-resolution catalog from a companion paper.

free parameters (4)
  • Shear modulus for moment conversion = 30 GPa
    Assumed in Text S3 to convert slip to seismic moment; moment magnitude scales as the product of slip area and modulus, so the Mw 6.6 estimate depends on this choice.
  • Smoothing correlation length lambda = 10 km
    Chosen via L-curve in Text S3 and Figure S11; controls the spatial smoothness of the inferred slip patch and thus the location of peak slip relative to the seamount.
  • SSE start time and duration (ti, td) = September 2023, about one month
    Fit jointly to all GNSS stations using an arctangent function (Text S2); these parameters define the temporal evolution of the slow slip, which is central to the two-phase interpretation.
  • Arctangent amplitude coefficients a and b = Per station and component
    Fit independently per station/component in Text S2 to extract static offsets used in the slip inversion.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption Elastic half-space and Okada (1992) Green's functions describe the surface deformation from slip on the slab interface
    Used in Text S3 for the slip inversion; ignores heterogeneous elastic structure.
  • domain assumption Slab2.0 provides the correct megathrust geometry
    Used in Text S3 to define the fault surface for the inversion; mislocation of the slab would bias slip patch depth and position.
  • domain assumption Slip rake is fixed in the convergence direction
    Imposed in Text S3; reduces the inversion freedom but may not capture local rake variations.
  • domain assumption The seismic catalog locations from Munchmeyer et al. (in prep) are accurate to the stated relative errors
    The interpretation of a thin (250 m) interface, migration velocities, and structural confinement relies on these relative locations.
  • domain assumption The subducted seamount position inferred from bathymetry and gravity corresponds to the structure at depth
    The spatial correlation of the SSE initiation and swarm clusters with the seamount flank depends on this inferred geometry.
invented entities (1)
  • Structural permeability seal on the megathrust
    purpose: To explain the 5-day seismic quiescence and the delayed expansion of the SSE after the ML=5.3 earthquake
    The seal is inferred post hoc from the quiescence and the subsequent acceleration; no independent measurement of permeability or pore pressure is provided.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Seismic swarms unveil the mechanisms driving shallow slow slip dynamics in the Copiap\'o ridge, Northern Chile." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/ULZNLOKJ

@misc{pith2026241118490,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Seismic swarms unveil the mechanisms driving shallow slow slip dynamics in the Copiap\'o ridge, Northern Chile},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/ULZNLOKJ}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2411.18490}
}
abstract

Like earthquakes, slow slip events release elastic energy stored on faults. Yet, the mechanisms behind slow slip instability and its relationship with seismicity are debated. Here, we use a seismo-geodetic deployment to document a shallow slow slip event (SSE) in 2023 on the Chile subduction. We observe dense, migrating seismic swarms accompanying the SSE, comprised of interface activity and upper plate splay faulting. Our observations suggest that the slow slip initiation is driven by structurally-confined fluid overpressure in the fluid-rich surroundings of a subducted seamount. This is consistent with an observed acceleration and expansion of the SSE after a $M_L=5.3$ earthquake likely triggering an increase in interface permeability. Historical earthquake swarms highlight the persistent structural control and recurrent nature of such slow slip events. Our observations provide insight into the interactions between slow slip and seismicity, suggesting they are controlled by creep on a fluid-infiltrated fault with fractally distributed asperities.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2411.18490 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Overview of the study region with the Nazca plate subducting below the South American plate. Copiap´o ridge highlighted by bathymetry map. Background warm colors show the locking degree (Gonz´alez-Vidal et al., 2023). Dark green triangles denote permanent seismic stations, light green triangles temporary seismic stations, red squares GNSS stations. Colored contours show the SSE in 2014 (pink, (Klein et al., 2018)) a… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. a Slip distribution and seismicity during the 2023 slow slip event. The slip distribu￾tion is shown in yellow to red with additional grey 1 cm contours. Earthquakes during the time period are colored by time in the sequence and scaled by magnitude. For reference, all seismicity cataloged between 11/2020 and 02/2024 is shown as grey dots. b Zoom in on the onset cluster. c Cross section of the events in b along longit… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Temporal development of latitude distribution, magnitudes, and detrended GNSS series. The top two plots include all events shown in Figure 2a. The black line in the magnitude plot shows the total cumulative seismic moment release. GNSS time series have been selected for stations close to the main slip patch of the SSE. We highlight the approximate GNSS velocities at the station BING with blue dashed lines. –6– [PIT… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (2 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Zoom in on the central part of the 2015, 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2023 swarms using catalogs from M¨unchmeyer et al. (in prep). The black circle highlights the approximate location of the subducted seamount. Grey lines show the 1 cm slip contours of the 2023 SSE. All swarm…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Schematic overview of the SSE initiation sequence and its drivers. Each earthquake is represented by a dot colored according to the time within the sequence. Blue arrows show fluid pressure migrations. The insets show a cross section of the fault interface (bottom left…

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Cited by 1 Pith paper

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. A systematic search for tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone (24$^\circ$S-31$^\circ$S) turns up empty

    physics.geo-ph 2025-01 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A dense seismic network search in the Atacama segment found no tectonic tremor or low-frequency earthquakes over 3.5 years, constraining their possible rate and size in a region known for slow slip.

Reference graph

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Pith tools

Reviewed August 12, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.