Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy

As of 18 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 28 of 28 outbound references and 2 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2412.14339.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2412.14339 v2

Coverage vector

measured 28 of 28 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:54.962202Z

measured 30 of 30 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00

measured 2 of 2 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:54.867014Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: pith, observed 2026-08-05T10:25:31.151551Z

Reference resolution

28 of 28 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy19
unresolved9
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 3673c48f-a36d-41f7-85a5-3408f017ea7e · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:54.867014Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 64a4f1be-71de-4654-bf6e-ac5477ae740b · outbound

This paper cites The function is defined in (3).

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy The function is defined in (3)

Reference 3

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.224604Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 63e2bf24-9b9a-4c3c-a612-95ed85b5853a · outbound

This paper cites 2 Flu outbreak data In this section we introduce, define, and visually evaluate ILI and hospitalization data.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy 2 Flu outbreak data In this section we introduce, define, and visually evaluate ILI and hospitalization data

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.279438Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 5e270294-0eac-4bcc-b4f8-212e18577a87 · outbound

This paper cites Compartmental models are standard mathematical models used for modelling disease outbreaks which may capture ILI behavior.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Compartmental models are standard mathematical models used for modelling disease outbreaks which may capture ILI behavior

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.234806Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 418c3254-a72d-478f-8cd1-9bddb5687244 · outbound

This paper cites This is an example of an autoregressive model with exogenous variables where the autoregressive lag is one (ARX(1)) [Raftery et al., 2010, Ljung, 1987].

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy This is an example of an autoregressive model with exogenous variables where the autoregressive lag is one (ARX(1)) [Raftery et al., 2010, Ljung, 1987]

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.204697Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 1493a74f-7784-4593-a931-35ecbc7e8c3b · outbound

This paper cites Occasionally {𝐻∗ 𝑠,𝑤+𝑖}𝐾 included a small number of negative values, which do not make sense when the distribution is meant to forecast hospitalizations, a nonnegative number.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Occasionally {𝐻∗ 𝑠,𝑤+𝑖}𝐾 included a small number of negative values, which do not make sense when the distribution is meant to forecast hospitalizations, a nonnegative number

Reference 12

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.184467Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 1a192b0c-7377-4ee4-9623-3ebbdb9b81d5 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Unresolved cited work

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.152366Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 759d71ba-b281-4a0d-a360-baf8231f0280 · outbound

This paper cites Centers for Disease Control and Prevention FluView portal.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Centers for Disease Control and Prevention FluView portal

Reference 18

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.118563Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation da0ba78b-5c2f-460b-8e8c-7f7f7727e731 · outbound

This paper cites The BASE model is a simple random walk with drift model, and the ARIMA model is fit by selecting the best possible model give the data according to a fitting criterion.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy The BASE model is a simple random walk with drift model, and the ARIMA model is fit by selecting the best possible model give the data according to a fitting criterion

Reference 20

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.173577Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 828a02be-7698-407f-aa35-d3b117108a9f · outbound

This paper cites Tilmann Gneiting and Matthias Katzfuss.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Tilmann Gneiting and Matthias Katzfuss

Reference 21

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.096777Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 42ed7d67-d173-4400-b1c2-d65190fddef7 · outbound

This paper cites These plots show flu outbreak trajectories similar to those in figure.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy These plots show flu outbreak trajectories similar to those in figure

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.245262Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 498f8e8f-e43e-4673-b2c3-dc74c6b70b42 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Unresolved cited work

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.214334Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation eef86c71-bb09-434b-9a96-dc50af62255f · outbound

This paper cites 17 Bayesian nonlinear flu hospitalizations forecasting Jennifer N Hird and Gregory J McDermid.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy 17 Bayesian nonlinear flu hospitalizations forecasting Jennifer N Hird and Gregory J McDermid

Reference 24

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.084732Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation eaa04abf-fc4b-4be0-8e6d-f2c114a9bde7 · outbound

This paper cites Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021– 22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021– 22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Reference 25

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.071626Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation feea15cc-15ae-4771-a3af-301d18347ce8 · outbound

This paper cites Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016

Reference 26

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.059577Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 69cce684-66bf-4442-960e-791703be810f · outbound

This paper cites Alexander Tsyplakov.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Alexander Tsyplakov

Reference 27

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.035278Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 802d58bf-6a3a-4832-8370-d9e085541875 · outbound

This paper cites Robert L Winkler.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Robert L Winkler

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.022688Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation f0242f9e-caa0-4eed-8713-996155b58d5c · outbound

This paper cites ASGD NORM2 model is well calibrated at most levels, with slight overcoverage at the lower levels up to about 80%, and has better coverage than all other models.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy ASGD NORM2 model is well calibrated at most levels, with slight overcoverage at the lower levels up to about 80%, and has better coverage than all other models

Reference 32

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.140941Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 7d3280ff-ef68-4ede-b002-421c8e3bc165 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Unresolved cited work

Reference 500

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.163051Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 90b6032f-5a32-47e4-a796-4239a182156c · outbound

This paper cites Results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Reference 2006

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.129610Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation d41e1aef-7ffb-40f0-9d0f-de61221cdcf6 · outbound

This paper cites Better together? Statistical learning in models made of modules.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Better together? Statistical learning in models made of modules

Reference 2008

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:54.945374Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5d70081b-7189-4d27-9100-dccb228afa1e · outbound

This paper cites Ensemble forecasts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the US.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Ensemble forecasts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the US

Reference 2013

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.047903Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 5b951a8c-87ec-46a6-9668-bb799918ddba · outbound

This paper cites Notable from the plots in the top of figure 1 is the regular trajectory of the ILI.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Notable from the plots in the top of figure 1 is the regular trajectory of the ILI

Reference 2014

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.257176Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 32bcaf41-9f6c-43f8-a013-b438a30817c5 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Unresolved cited work

Reference 2015

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.194186Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 1d8ba53b-cd56-4ab0-963f-4f1126ae5897 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Unresolved cited work

Reference 2021

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.290011Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation b8ce1dbe-321f-43ec-9e9c-efa3c67a1b7d · outbound

This paper cites Anne Ewing, Elizabeth C Lee, C´ecile Viboud, and Shweta Bansal.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Anne Ewing, Elizabeth C Lee, C´ecile Viboud, and Shweta Bansal

Reference 2022

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:54.931937Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation acdd60a4-bdb3-475c-ab53-cede6982d45f · outbound

This paper cites To better align with the flu behavior, week 1 is set as the first week of August and week 52 or 53 is the last week in July of the following year.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy To better align with the flu behavior, week 1 is set as the first week of August and week 52 or 53 is the last week in July of the following year

Reference 2023

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.268384Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 70934c85-8377-443e-beb3-7e6de342d77e · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Forecasting Influenza Hospitalizations Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Nonlinear Model with Discrepancy Unresolved cited work

Reference 2024

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-11T12:24:55.108021Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Pith citing papers

Observation 3673c48f-a36d-41f7-85a5-3408f017ea7e · inbound