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Winter Noctilucent Clouds Following Sudden Stratospheric Warming: First Observations

T0 review · 2 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-10 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read Sudden stratospheric warming produced the first observed winter noctilucent clouds in December 2024, the paper reports.

desk verdict A credible first report of winter mesospheric ice clouds tied to an SSW, with a plausible but not fully proven formation mechanism: the frost-point crossing at cloud height rests on an assumed gravity-wave excursion. read the letter →

arxiv 2501.05432 v3 pith:KLWKBZBB submitted 2025-01-09 physics.ao-ph physics.geo-ph

Oleg S. Ugolnikov This is my paper · ORCID
classification physics.ao-phphysics.geo-ph
keywords winternoctilucentcloudssuddenstratosphericwarmingmesosphericicepolarvortexdisplacementtemperatureminimumwatervaportransportfrostpointtwilightcolorimetry
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper reports the first observed winter occurrence of noctilucent clouds: bright, wave-structured ice clouds appeared over Siberian Russia on the nights of December 17–19, 2024, with a measured mean altitude of $70.1 \pm 1.5$ km. It argues that these winter noctilucent clouds formed because a sudden stratospheric warming displaced the polar vortex and drove upwelling in the mesosphere, adiabatically cooling the air near 68–70 km while water vapor rose to almost 10 ppm. Satellite temperatures at the cloud site fell to about 165 K at 68 km, and one high-resolution profile reached the frost point near 155 K; the paper argues that short-lived gravity waves pushed local temperatures below the frost point and nucleated the ice. If correct, this extends mesospheric ice from a summer-only polar phenomenon to a rare winter mid-latitude event triggered by major sudden stratospheric warmings.

What carries the argument

The load-bearing mechanism is sudden stratospheric warming coupling into the mesosphere: planetary-wave activity displaces the polar stratospheric vortex, reverses the zonal wind, stops the usual downwelling winter circulation, and replaces it with upwelling that adiabatically cools the upper mesosphere. The central observational identity is the match between the cloud altitude derived by umbral colorimetric analysis (using the color shift of twilight as the cloud enters Earth's shadow) and the height of the satellite-observed temperature minimum at 68–70 km. The final piece is the frost-point criterion: for the nearly 10 ppm water vapor measured in the cold layer, the empirical ice frost-point temperature is about 155 K, and the paper argues that local gravity-wave temperature excursions below the ~165 K resolved by MLS were large enough to cross that threshold. This combination—cold, moist, upwelling air at 68–70 km—is the same physical recipe that produces summer mesospheric ice, transplanted into winter by an SSW.

What would settle it

A high-resolution temperature measurement over central Siberia during the cloud sightings that shows no air at or below ~155 K near 68 to 70 km would falsify the proposed formation mechanism, as would a particle-property measurement showing the clouds were not water ice.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that the December 2024 Siberian structures are genuine noctilucent clouds of water ice, observed out of season. Their measured height of $70.1 \pm 1.5$ km sits in the mesosphere and matches the altitude of a deep temperature minimum that followed the onset of a major sudden stratospheric warming around December 11, when temperatures at 44 km reached about 300 K while the mesosphere cooled to about 165 K. MLS water-vapor profiles show the cold layer became nearly twice as humid as the zonal-mean December state, and a SABER nighttime scan in the same region reaches the ice frost point at 69 km, about 1 km below the measured cloud height. The study concludes that SSW-driven upwelling produced the cold, moist layer and that unresolved gravity-wave excursions closed the final ~10 K gap, so the clouds mark the first time winter mesospheric ice has been tied to sudden stratospheric warming. It explicitly argues against rocket exhaust or meteor dust as the primary cause.

Load-bearing premise

The central claim holds only if local mesospheric temperatures actually dipped to or below the ~155 K ice frost point at the cloud location, since the best satellite measurements show ~165 K there and the extra ~10 K cooling must come from gravity-wave fluctuations that were not directly observed.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Mesospheric ice can form in winter mid-latitudes, not only in the summer polar mesosphere, when an SSW produces the right combination of cooling and humidity.
  • The observed mean cloud height, $70.1 \pm 1.5$ km, is more than 10 km below typical summer noctilucent clouds, so the altitude range for mesospheric ice must be extended downward.
  • SSW events can transport water vapor upward, nearly doubling mesospheric humidity to about 10 ppm in the cold layer, increasing the probability of ice nucleation.
  • Because the cold spots are small, short-lived, and often hidden by winter weather, such clouds are likely rare and frequently missed; systematic twilight monitoring during SSWs would raise detection odds.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A natural extension would be to search historical satellite polar-mesospheric-cloud records during major SSWs for low-altitude ice signatures near 68–72 km; if found, this event would become a class rather than a single sighting.
  • The mechanism implies that the best observing locations during future SSWs are on the eastern side of the displaced vortex, where the mesospheric cold anomaly sits; coordinated twilight camera networks could test this prediction.
  • Because these clouds form near 70 km, well below typical summer noctilucent clouds, they offer a natural test for ice-nucleation models outside their usual temperature and water-vapor parameter range.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

2 major / 5 minor

Summary. This paper reports observations of bright, noctilucent-cloud-like structures in the Siberian sky on December 17-19, 2024, and estimates their altitude as 70.1 +/- 1.5 km using a single-site twilight colorimetric method. The author compares the event with Aura/MLS temperature and water vapor data, documenting a pronounced mesospheric temperature minimum near 68 km associated with a sudden stratospheric warming, elevated H2O of about 10 ppm, and a nearby TIMED/SABER profile that reaches the ice frost point at 69 km. The paper argues that this combination - SSW-induced mesospheric upwelling, adiabatic cooling, and water vapor enhancement - explains the formation of 'winter noctilucent clouds.' The central claim is that these are the first observed winter mesospheric ice clouds caused by an SSW.

Significance. If the altitude and timing are correct, this is the first documented case of winter mesospheric ice clouds associated with a sudden stratospheric warming, and it extends the known parameter space of NLC formation. The paper makes good use of publicly available satellite data, and the colorimetric method has been validated in the author's prior work. The strength of the report is the direct observation and the coincidence arguments; its main limitation is that the final causal step - frost-point crossing by unresolved gravity-wave cooling - is assumed rather than measured. The paper is valuable as an observational report, but the mechanism should be framed as a plausible hypothesis unless additional quantitative support is provided.

major comments (2)
  1. [Section 3, paragraph after Figure 8; Section 4] The causal claim that the clouds were nucleated by SSW-induced cooling depends on the local temperature falling below the frost point at the cloud location and time. The MLS profiles show about 165 K at 68 km, roughly 10 K above the Murphy-Koop frost point for the measured ~10 ppm H2O; only a single SABER profile reaches 155 K at 69 km, possibly offset in space or time. The text then 'assume[s] that mesosphere temperatures locally dropped even deeper during that night' because gravity waves can be short-lived. This assumed fluctuation is load-bearing for the central formation mechanism. Please either soften the conclusion to a plausible hypothesis or provide quantitative support, such as a microphysical estimate of whether a transient few-kelvin frost-point crossing can produce visible ice, or independent gravity-wave temperature observations. As written, the mechanism is not demonstrated.
  2. [Section 2, Figure 4] The altitude of 70.1 +/- 1.5 km is based on a single twilight sequence, and the paper itself notes 'restricted data volume and low single measurement accuracy' plus a potential ~1 km overestimation from multiple scattering. Because the mesospheric nature of the clouds is central to the paper's title and interpretation, please explicitly discuss how systematic errors (e.g., background subtraction, assumed aerosol/NO2 profiles, single-scattering model) are bounded, and whether any could bias the altitude by more than the quoted 1.5 km. If this cannot be quantified, state it as a limitation in the conclusions.
minor comments (5)
  1. [Abstract] The phrase 'coincided spatially and temporary' should read 'coincided spatially and temporally.'
  2. [Section 1, paragraph 2] The instrument name 'SHIAMACHY' is a typo for 'SCIAMACHY.'
  3. [References] The reference for Bremer and Berger (2002) is misspelled as 'Bermer, J.'; it should be 'Bremer, J.'
  4. [Section 3, paragraph after Figure 8] The sentence 'It is 1 km below the measured height of WNLC, the reason of this difference was discussed above' is grammatically awkward; consider revising to 'This is 1 km below the measured height of WNLC, a difference whose reason was discussed above.'
  5. [References] The Gadsden and Schroder reference lists the title as 'Nocilucent Clouds'; the correct spelling is 'Noctilucent Clouds.'

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 1.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the altitude measurement and the SSW-causation inference are independent, and the self-cited colorimetric method is externally validated by triangulation.

full rationale

The paper's central claims are (i) that the December 2024 structures are winter mesospheric ice clouds at 70.1±1.5 km, measured by umbral colorimetry, and (ii) that they formed because SSW-driven upwelling cooled the mesosphere to the ice frost point. These chains are independent. The altitude retrieval in Section 2 (Fig. 4) compares observed color-index evolution with a radiative-transfer model parameterized by external MLS/OMPS satellite data; it does not assume any SSW mechanism or frost-point crossing. The method originates in the author's prior work (Ugolnikov 2023b), but the paper cites validation against triangulation (Ugolnikov et al. 2025), which is independent of the present target result. The temperature and water-vapor arguments in Section 3 (Figs. 5-8) use external MLS and SABER data and the Murphy-Koop formula; the frost-point comparison is not fitted to the observed cloud altitude. The one genuinely weak link is not circular: the paper explicitly assumes that 'mesosphere temperatures locally dropped even deeper during that night' (Section 3) to close the roughly 10 K gap between MLS temperatures and the frost point. That is an unverified gravity-wave excursion assumption, a correctness/evidence limitation rather than a reduction of the derivation to its own inputs. The self-citations are methodological and externally anchored; no fitted parameter is renamed as a prediction, and no uniqueness theorem is imported. Overall circularity is minimal, consistent with a normal non-circular observational study.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 6 assumptions · 0 invented entities

No tunable constants are used to force the result. The cloud altitude is a retrieved quantity from colorimetry, not an ad hoc parameter; the radiative transfer model inputs are external measurements; and the gravity-wave temperature excursion is assumed but not assigned a fitted value. No new physical entities are introduced; WNLC is a name for an inferred atmospheric phenomenon, not a new force, particle, or conserved quantity.

assumptions (6)
  • domain assumption The single-scattering twilight color model of Ugolnikov (2023b) gives unbiased altitude estimates for noctilucent clouds, with about 1 km systematic error from multiple scattering.
    Used in Section 2 to convert measured color indexes into cloud altitude. The model is validated against triangulation in prior work, but is not independently checked in this paper.
  • domain assumption Gravity waves produced local mesospheric temperature minima at least about 10 K below the MLS and SABER large-scale values at 68-70 km during December 17-19, 2024.
    Invoked in Section 3 after Figure 8 to bridge the gap between observed MLS temperatures near 165 K and the frost point near 155 K. This is a known mechanism, but its occurrence and amplitude at this specific time and place are not measured.
  • domain assumption The observed structures are water-ice clouds, not dust or other aerosol, despite no direct composition measurement.
    The paper infers ice composition from visual similarity to NLC, altitude near the temperature minimum, and elevated water vapor, while ruling out meteoric dust based on size arguments in Section 4.
  • domain assumption MLS and SABER profiles in the region averaged over 55N ± 2, 105E ± 10 are representative of the airmass at the cloud locations.
    Used in Section 3 to establish the thermal and humidity environment. Satellite footprint and local time differences may not exactly match the cloud positions and times.
  • standard math The Murphy-Koop (2005) vapor pressure relation correctly predicts the ice frost temperature at mesospheric conditions.
    Used in Figure 8 to compute the frost level at 69-70 km; this is an externally established thermodynamic relation.
  • domain assumption A displaced polar vortex during a sudden stratospheric warming reverses or weakens mesospheric downwelling, producing upwelling and adiabatic cooling at about 70 km.
    The paper's mechanism relies on this established SSW-mesosphere coupling, applied here to the December 2024 event.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Winter Noctilucent Clouds Following Sudden Stratospheric Warming: First Observations." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/KLWKBZBB

@misc{pith2026250105432,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Winter Noctilucent Clouds Following Sudden Stratospheric Warming: First Observations},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/KLWKBZBB}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2501.05432}
}
read the original abstract

Mesospheric structures identical to summer noctilucent clouds were observed during the nights of December 17-19, 2024 in Siberian Russia. Basing on the available photo data, the mean altitude of the clouds 70.1+-1.5 km was measured by umbral colorimetric method. This coincided spatially and temporary with deep temperature minimum below 160K in mesosphere, followed the polar vortex displacement and warming of stratosphere below the clouds. The satellite data on temperature and water vapor is used to study the nature of this unexpected event.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2501.05432 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Images of winter noctilucent clouds: evening twilight of December 17 (09h31m UT, 58N, 103E, image by Elena V. Stukalova, a) and morning twilight of December 18 (00h23m UT, 56N, 106E, image by Lyubov P. Yakovleva, b) [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p002_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Winter noctilucent clouds leaving the shadow of the Earth (December 18, 00h11m UT, 56.8N, 105.7E), image by Daria A. Sablina. Color changing effect is used for altitude definition. The values of local solar zenith angle for the altitude 70 km are shown. 2. Clouds observations and altitude estimation In the evening and the morning twilight of the night of December 17-18, 2024, bright clouds visually identical to NL… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Color indexes of winter noctilucent clouds depending on the local solar zenith angle, local atmospheric light extinction is reduced. Theoretical dependencies for WNLC altitudes 68, 70, and 72 km are shown for comparison [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_4.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (4 more)
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: EOS Aura/MLS temperatures in December 2024 averaged for 55N±2, 105E±10. Time and altitude of WNLC are shown by the dot. WNLC were observed after the start of maximum stage of SSW, when the temperature at this level had fallen down to 165 K according to MLS data. He…
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: EOS Aura/MLS temperatures at 147 and 4.6 Pa (approximately 44 and 68 km) averaged for different stages of stratosphere warming in December 2024. Positions of WNLC are shown by arrows in 4.6 Pa diagram for December 16-19 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_6.png]
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: EOS Aura/MLS altitude profiles of water vapor for December 15-18 2024, the same [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_7.png]
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: shows the MLS temperature profiles on the same dates and the mean profile for December 1-10, the same location area as in Figures 5 and 7. Frost temperature is calculated by equation of Murphy and Koop (2005) and H2O data of December 18, it is also shown. MLS temperatu…

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