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Dark Energy Constraints and Joint Cosmological Inference from Mutually Inconsistent Observations

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arxiv 2504.03829 v1 pith:4O2BSBBL submitted 2025-04-04 astro-ph.CO

classification astro-ph.CO
keywords cosmologicalinconsistentinferencejointobservationsariseconstraintsdark
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abstract

Recent results regarding dark energy are mutually inconsistent under the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model, hinting at the possibility of undiscovered physics. However, the currently accepted cosmological parameters come from a joint inference between observational data sets, a process that is formally invalid for inconsistent observations. We will show that many problems can arise when using joint inference on disagreeing observations such as significantly overestimated margins of error, high dependencies on priors, and sensitivities to boundary constraints. Because we do not know if these inconsistencies arise due to errors in observation, poor statistical techniques, or an improper model, it is difficult to fix these problems. We will discuss each scenario in which the analysis method breaks and explore an alternative resampling technique, developing methods that may make determining the sources of tensions in cosmological parameters easier.

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Cited by 2 Pith papers

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score.

  1. Controlled Tension Forecasting: Quantifying Cross-Probe Biases in $\omega_0\omega_a$CDM

    astro-ph.CO 2025-12 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Controlled mock analyses show that cross-probe calibration tensions — in matter density, H0, supernova brightness, or sound horizon — can fake 3–10σ apparent dynamical-dark-energy signals while the true cosmology is ΛCDM.

  2. KiDS-Legacy: Constraining dark energy, neutrino mass, and curvature

    astro-ph.CO 2025-12 unverdicted novelty 4.0 of 10

    KiDS-Legacy cosmic shear plus external probes yields S8 = 0.816 ± 0.006 in Lambda-CDM and consistent bounds on w0, wa, sum m_nu and Omega_K with no strong preference for extensions.

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