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The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data

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arxiv 2505.17946 v1 pith:4KPREDIQ submitted 2025-05-23 econ.GN q-fin.EC

Jinchi Dong , Richard S.J. Tol , Jinnan Wang This is my paper
classification econ.GNq-fin.EC
keywords climateeconomicoutputdataeffectsevidenceglobalmodel
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Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from nearly all countries, we find robust evidence that weather shocks have a transient effect on output. The impact on economic growth is large and significant in the short-run but statistically insignificant in the long-run, except in the coldest and hottest places.

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  1. To what extent can long-differencing capture climate adaptation?

    econ.EM 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Long-difference and fixed-effects estimates of climate impacts are each mixtures of short- and long-run responses, so their difference is a biased, often low-power test of adaptation.

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