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Inferring the pair-instability mass gap from gravitational wave data

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arxiv 2506.09154 v2 pith:YXCDYYVM submitted 2025-06-10 astro-ph.HE astro-ph.SR

classification astro-ph.HEastro-ph.SR
keywords massblackdataholesconsistentgravitational-wavemodelspair-instability
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

We use hierarchical Bayesian inference with non-parametric Gaussian process models to investigate the effective inspiral spin parameter, $\chi_{\rm eff}$, as a function of primary black hole mass in the third gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-3). Our analysis reveals a transition in the population at a primary mass of $46^{+7}_{-5}\,M_\odot$. Beyond this mass, the $\chi_{\rm eff}$ distribution broadens, becomes consistent with being symmetric around zero, and has a median of $-0.03^{+0.36}_{-0.59}$ (90\% credibility). These results are consistent with the presence of a pair-instability mass gap that is repopulated by black holes that are the remnant of a previous merger, formed in dense star clusters. However, asymmetric distributions skewed toward positive $\chi_{\rm eff}$ are not excluded by current data. Below the inferred transition mass, we constrain the fraction of second-generation black holes to be $\lesssim 10\%$. These results provide model-independent support for a high-mass and high-spin population of black holes in the data, consistent with earlier work using parametric models. Imminent gravitational-wave data releases will be essential to sharpen constraints on spin symmetry and clarify the origin of the black holes.

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Cited by 10 Pith papers

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  1. Second-Generation Mass Peak in the Gravitational-Wave Population as a Probe of Globular Clusters

    astro-ph.HE 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 6.0 of 10

    Dynamical formation in globular clusters produces a robust second black-hole mass peak at ~70 solar masses from second-generation mergers when the first-generation spectrum is truncated by pair-instability supernovae.

  2. Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves

    astro-ph.HE 2026-02 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at l...

  3. Signatures of a subpopulation of hierarchical mergers in the GWTC-4 gravitational-wave dataset

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    GWTC-4 data show a transition to nearly all hierarchical mergers above 46 solar masses, with the hierarchical rate peaking at 15.7 solar masses, indicating mass-dependent substructure in black hole spins.

  4. Signatures of a subpopulation of hierarchical mergers in the GWTC-4 gravitational-wave dataset

    gr-qc 2026-01 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Using a joint effective-spin and precession-spin model on 155 gravitational-wave events, the authors infer that the hierarchical (second-generation) merger fraction rises sharply above ~46 M_sun and peaks again near 1...

  5. Evidence of the pair instability gap from black hole masses

    astro-ph.HE 2025-09 unverdicted novelty 6.0 of 10

    GWTC-4 data reveals a pair-instability gap at 44 M_⊙ in secondary black hole masses, interpreted as evidence for hierarchical mergers and used to constrain the S-factor for 12C(α,γ)16O.

  6. How do the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's Heavy Black Holes Form? No evidence for core-collapse Intermediate-mass black holes in GWTC-4

    astro-ph.HE 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0 of 10

    No evidence for core-collapse formed low-spin IMBHs in GWTC-4, with 90% upper limit on merger rate of 0.077 Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}, low-spin BH mass truncation at 65 solar masses consistent with pair-instability gap lower e...

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    astro-ph.HE 2026-05 unverdicted novelty 5.0 of 10

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  8. Spectral siren cosmology from gravitational-wave observations in GWTC-4.0

    astro-ph.CO 2025-09 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Spectral siren analysis of 152 GWTC-4.0 black hole mergers with a Gaussian Process mass model, combined with GW170817, gives H0 = 69 (+7/-6) km/s/Mpc at 10% precision.

  9. Evidence for additional structure in the effective spin distribution hints at multiple formation pathways in GWTC-5.0

    astro-ph.HE 2026-06 unverdicted novelty 4.0 of 10

    GWTC-5.0 analysis finds evidence for structure beyond a non-skewed Gaussian bulk in χ_eff, with suggestive mass-dependent excess of positive over negative spins outside the bulk at 13:1 odds in one mass bin.

  10. Binary Black Hole Phase Space Discovers the Signature of Pair Instability Supernovae Mass Gap

    astro-ph.HE 2025-09 reject novelty 4.0 of 10

    Applying a phase-space overlap method to GWTC-4, the paper claims first-generation black holes are truncated near 45.5 solar masses, but the cutoff follows from the assumed exponential mass prior rather than from the data.

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