Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

As of 18 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 11 of 11 outbound references and 13 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2506.21558.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2506.21558 v1

Coverage vector

measured 11 of 11 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:23.699750Z

measured 24 of 24 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00

measured 13 of 13 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-15T17:33:37.264887Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-04T06:09:38.152990Z

Reference resolution

11 of 11 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy5
unresolved6
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 885cbd89-2e9c-429e-a577-b0ef11dcc970 · outbound

This paper cites Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:22.671483Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 885fe84d-fdfb-486c-a0d3-084051cbba64 · outbound

This paper cites Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:22.782590Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 9fb22fb3-1bb9-470f-8581-28824d80fba4 · outbound

This paper cites ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:22.891847Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 1d248828-2327-4233-ba8c-268818453212 · outbound

This paper cites Bosse.Comparing Two F orecasters in an Ideal World.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Bosse.Comparing Two F orecasters in an Ideal World

Reference 4

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:24.747424Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 2356287a-848e-407e-ab20-176d7c29f2f0 · outbound

This paper cites 2024.URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tc_xY1NM-US4mZ4OpzxrpTudyo1W4KsE/view.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents 2024.URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tc_xY1NM-US4mZ4OpzxrpTudyo1W4KsE/view

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:24.616373Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation fcff3551-4a43-46d6-a969-14ebb6368de1 · outbound

This paper cites Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:23.231002Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a68513d3-892e-43fa-a94f-414b62f1d2ff · outbound

This paper cites Quarterly forecasting tournaments.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Quarterly forecasting tournaments

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:24.372890Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation bec7f51e-b3bc-4c3f-957b-2dffb5b8ca45 · outbound

This paper cites Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research Agents.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research Agents

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:23.463534Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation e7a8de17-086c-4ba9-9f60-97bf04fe34e4 · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting platform.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Forecasting platform

Reference 9

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:24.212651Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 0f61956e-88ce-4401-bf1d-4ae9d6f0e6af · outbound

This paper cites ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:23.621642Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6975ce4f-c058-4603-a480-82336eec6c1a · outbound

This paper cites Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability.

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability

Reference 11

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-07T04:43:23.977245Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Pith citing papers

Observation 66e4b0fa-b47f-43ef-bd65-40dacd25bf08 · inbound

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts cites this paper.

Advancing Event Forecasting through Massive Training of Large Language Models: Challenges, Solutions, and Broader Impacts Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 32

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T14:22:31.353683Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 96e3731a-e52c-4dc3-bfaa-b2cc7c812603 · inbound

FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction cites this paper.

FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 35

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T17:31:13.209293Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8d09ee12-7108-4cd1-aec7-2ce0d686955e · inbound

Exploring Spatial-Temporal Dynamics in Event-based Facial Micro-Expression Analysis cites this paper.

Exploring Spatial-Temporal Dynamics in Event-based Facial Micro-Expression Analysis Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 35

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-15T17:33:37.264887Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2276a017-f224-4306-847e-099ac35402f0 · inbound

Temporal Leakage in Search-Engine Date-Filtered Web Retrieval: A Retrospective Forecasting Case Study cites this paper.

Temporal Leakage in Search-Engine Date-Filtered Web Retrieval: A Retrospective Forecasting Case Study Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 1

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-16T08:57:38.722703Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 7af6be80-063c-45cd-9289-b548089753a1 · inbound

Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents cites this paper.

Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 2

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-10T09:03:25.178202Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation d2b7ee5e-6f80-4392-92be-df32eba898e9 · inbound

Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents cites this paper.

Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 2

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T04:00:56.065413Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 966325ae-f7c2-4773-8b77-3b12ad759aae · inbound

Evaluating Strategic Reasoning in Forecasting Agents cites this paper.

Evaluating Strategic Reasoning in Forecasting Agents Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 1

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T23:51:17.950988Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 0597b65b-190a-472e-8edc-03b1e86339da · inbound

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most cites this paper.

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 40

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-22T05:24:38.177228Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 2daf2dac-9d06-4db1-9727-fbe6ba45854b · inbound

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most cites this paper.

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 40

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-25T06:05:26.180439Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 07a8b136-96c9-4270-8900-ea9e2f540c10 · inbound

WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning cites this paper.

WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 39

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-03T10:58:02.649126Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 47ed0aaa-8d6b-45d5-b896-1489f027ada2 · inbound

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark cites this paper.

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 2

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-04T00:09:14.539932Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation ba97fdbf-daf4-4bc0-9de2-ba4512faa184 · inbound

Agentic Time Machine as an Infrastructure for Future-Event Forecasting cites this paper.

Agentic Time Machine as an Infrastructure for Future-Event Forecasting Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 22

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-04T06:09:38.154777Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 1d63681f-7382-4602-8076-386eb0e3df40 · inbound

Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models cites this paper.

Global Merger-Arbitrage Forecasting with Language Models Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Reference 22

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-14T14:36:29.370385Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.