Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

As of 18 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 0 of 0 outbound references and 10 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2508.11800.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2508.11800 v1

Coverage vector

measured 0 of 0 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 10 of 10 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00

measured 10 of 10 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-01T08:01:22.079256Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-07-02T19:47:18.750963Z

Reference resolution

0 of 0 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved0
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
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External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

No outbound reference observations are available for this paper version.

Pith citing papers

Observation 0d6f028a-9455-4fd4-8cc9-5ff2f15a4b4c · inbound

DeepSearch: Overcome the Bottleneck of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards via Monte Carlo Tree Search cites this paper.

DeepSearch: Overcome the Bottleneck of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards via Monte Carlo Tree Search Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 2

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-18T12:12:35.934261Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation b352ce26-5105-4fc3-b17e-253794193c8c · inbound

OneThinker: All-in-one Reasoning Model for Image and Video cites this paper.

OneThinker: All-in-one Reasoning Model for Image and Video Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 18

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-17T02:11:26.480554Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 2557f5c0-3089-4a60-87eb-5e0a4bd91a42 · inbound

Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards cites this paper.

Decoupling Reasoning and Confidence: Resurrecting Calibration in Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-15T13:50:02.363148Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 81733b23-02e0-4fbd-ae1e-0511fee1aa76 · inbound

OpenVLThinkerV2: A Generalist Multimodal Reasoning Model for Multi-domain Visual Tasks cites this paper.

OpenVLThinkerV2: A Generalist Multimodal Reasoning Model for Multi-domain Visual Tasks Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 3

Resolution: metadata mismatch; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T07:30:58.698585Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation db227cbe-956f-41a8-a41f-88ed10404e9b · inbound

Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization for Reasoning LLMs cites this paper.

Calibration-Aware Policy Optimization for Reasoning LLMs Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-11T10:06:01.149053Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation 3cd94be1-17d4-453e-b9eb-7a9371f59825 · inbound

Power Reinforcement Post-Training of Text-to-Image Models with Super-Linear Advantage Shaping cites this paper.

Power Reinforcement Post-Training of Text-to-Image Models with Super-Linear Advantage Shaping Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 24

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-12T07:16:29.523551Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation de9c0fdf-6ddf-482f-968d-4fe490c4ae4c · inbound

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting cites this paper.

Verifiable Rewards for Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 7

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-07-02T19:47:18.752660Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-18T06:34:40.430872+00:00.

Observation d486a7fa-41ef-40f6-972b-059fe2b112e7 · inbound

On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models cites this paper.

On the effectiveness of reward functions in reinforcement learning for confidence calibration of large language models Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 32

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-11T20:01:06.623978Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b803a01d-d71b-4ad8-9af4-bf3bdf8b73e2 · inbound

Multimodal Reward Hacking in Reinforcement Learning cites this paper.

Multimodal Reward Hacking in Reinforcement Learning Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-13T02:39:02.891861Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 88231fcd-a300-4020-ad24-46173b712127 · inbound

The Dark Room in the Reward Channel: Dense Prediction Rewards Collapse GRPO-Trained LLM Agents -- and The Channel, Not the Content, Decides What Works cites this paper.

The Dark Room in the Reward Channel: Dense Prediction Rewards Collapse GRPO-Trained LLM Agents -- and The Channel, Not the Content, Decides What Works Uncalibrated Reasoning: GRPO Induces Overconfidence for Stochastic Outcomes

Reference 2021

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-01T08:01:22.079256Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.