Understanding the Evolution of Black Hole Accretion and Dust out to z=4 with a Deep Imaging Extragalactic Survey with PRIMA

Andreas L. Faisst; Carlotta Gruppioni; Chian-Chou Chen; Laure Ciesla

REVIEW 4 major objections 5 minor 76 references

Understanding the Evolution of Black Hole Accretion and Dust out to z=4 with a Deep Imaging Extragalactic Survey with PRIMA

T0 review · 4 major / 5 minor · reviewed 2026-08-05 · deepseek-v4-flash

Challenge this review Re-run · record.json Download PDF Read on arXiv ↗

Pith's one-line read A 200-hour PRIMA survey over COSMOS would reveal how dust and black holes grew in the first galaxies to z=4.

desk verdict A transparent, well-scoped PRIMA survey forecast over COSMOS; useful as a planning document, but the yield numbers and redshift accuracy rest on starburst templates and unpublished sensitivity figures, so treat them as order-of-magnitude. read the letter →

arxiv 2509.01674 v1 pith:OE4DQURK submitted 2025-09-01 astro-ph.GA

Andreas L. Faisst , Chian-Chou Chen , Laure Ciesla , Carlotta Gruppioni This is my paper

classification astro-ph.GA

keywords dustgalaxies:activeevolutionformationinfrared:galaxiessub-millimeter:earlyuniversePRIMA

verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper is a feasibility and discovery-potential study for PRIDES, a proposed ~200-hour imaging survey with the future PRIMA space telescope over 1.6 square degrees of the COSMOS field, reaching a depth of 70 microJy in the 25–80 micron range. The authors argue that this single program would detect the rest-frame mid-infrared emission of tens of thousands of galaxies out to z=4, including roughly 700 galaxies at z~3 with total infrared luminosity above 10^12 solar luminosities. If the survey performs as modeled, it would close the wavelength gap between JWST and ALMA and provide the first statistical measurements of PAH and silicate features in typical, non-lensed high-redshift galaxies, yielding constraints on dust-obscured star formation, dust grain properties, and the prevalence of dust-obscured AGN. A sympathetic reader would care because these measurements address some of the largest open questions in galaxy evolution: how much star formation is hidden by dust, how dust builds up over cosmic time, and how obscured black-hole growth affects galaxies.

What carries the argument

The enabling mechanism is PRIMA's PRIMAger hyperspectral imager, whose two linear-variable-filter arrays cover 24–84 microns at spectral resolution R~10 (twelve filter bands) over a wide field of view, yielding 10–100 times faster mapping than JWST/MIRI and enough sensitivity to detect 70 microJy sources. Combined with the deep UV-to-submillimeter ancillary data on COSMOS, which provide positional and structural priors for source deblending, the survey uses the broad PAH emission bands (especially 7.7 microns) and the 9.7 micron silicate feature as the physical diagnostics for star formation, dust grain properties, and AGN presence.

What would settle it

Run the PRIDES sensitivity model with high-z SED templates whose dust is 20–30 K hotter than the local starburst templates (motivated by ALMA studies at z>4); if the predicted z~3 detection rate drops below about half of the claimed 700 sources, the core yield claim is falsified. A directly observed test would be a 10-hour PRIMA pilot on a COSMOS subfield with existing ALMA/JWST coverage, comparing the detected fraction of z~3 main-sequence galaxies to the 70 microJy prediction.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The paper's central claim is that a 200-hour survey with PRIMA's PRIMAger instrument over 1.6 deg2 of COSMOS—PRIDES—will detect the rest-frame mid-IR continuum of tens of thousands of galaxies out to z=4, down to LIR=1e12 Lsun at z~3 and a stellar mass limit of 3e10 Msun. With twelve photometric bands between 25 and 80 microns at R~10, it will measure PAH emission and silicate absorption in ordinary, unlensed galaxies, derive redshifts with accuracy Delta z/(1+z) < 0.03 for LIR > 4e11 Lsun, and identify dust-obscured, Compton-thick AGN through weakened PAH features and steep mid-IR slopes. The survey is designed to be complementary to ALMA and JWST, filling the wavelength gap that currently

Load-bearing premise

The paper's expected detections rest on assuming that the infrared light of distant galaxies looks like the average of local starbursts; if early galaxies have different dust temperatures, PAH strengths, or AGN contributions, the predicted yields and redshift accuracies would shift systematically.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

PRIDES would deliver the first statistical census of mid-IR SEDs of typical, non-lensed galaxies at z>3, breaking the current reliance on stacking and small ALMA samples.
Redshifts and SED shapes for hundreds of 'optically dark' galaxies—currently known only from ALMA and the reddest JWST bands—would refine the cosmic star-formation-rate density at z>3.
PAH strength versus metallicity and ionization hardness, combined with rest-frame optical spectra from JWST or Euclid, would give the first high-redshift relation between dust grain properties and ISM conditions.
The survey would identify hundreds of dust-obscured, Compton-thick AGN that are missed by UV/optical and X-ray surveys, quantifying their role in early galaxy evolution.
At a cost of roughly 8–10 days of PRIMA's GO time, PRIDES would create a 1.6 deg2 legacy dataset that complements COSMOS-Web, CHAMPS, Euclid, SPHEREx, and Roman.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

If high-redshift galaxies have systematically warmer dust than the local starburst templates assumed here, the claimed z~3 mass/luminosity limits would be optimistic; conversely, cooler dust would make the yields conservative. The first PRIMA pilot data on COSMOS would directly test this.
The same survey design, with its deblending priors, could be transplanted to other well-studied deep fields (e.g., GOODS-North or the CANDELS fields) to measure cosmic variance in the obscured star-formation density and AGN fraction, which a single 1.6 deg2 field cannot fully constrain.
PRIMA's wide-field, multi-band mid-IR maps would also enable time-domain studies of variable or flaring AGN at z>3, extending the WISE-based transient searches to earlier cosmic epochs—a direction the paper mentions but does not develop.

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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Desk Editor's Note

read the letter

This is a survey proposal/forecast for a 200-hour PRIMA imaging program over 1.6 deg2 of COSMOS, targeting rest-frame mid-IR detection of galaxies out to z~4. What is genuinely new is the specific PRIDES design—depth, area, wavelength coverage, and the expected numbers in Table 1—which I have not seen elsewhere in the PRIMA literature. The paper is also honest about its limitations: it flags confusion as a major challenge, labels the Table 1 counts as lower limits due to COSMOS2020 catalog cuts, and openly states the conversion from flux to LIR uses average starburst SEDs.

The core feasibility argument is plausible if PRIMA's current sensitivity estimates hold. The authors use external COSMOS2020 data and clear scaling relations, and the paper is internally consistent. Credit is due for the transparency of the method.

Where the soft spots are: the load-bearing assumption is that local starburst templates (Kirkpatrick et al. 2012) represent z~3 main-sequence galaxies. If PAH emission is weaker at fixed LIR—plausible at lower metallicity or with a harder radiation field—then the 70 µJy 5σ limit corresponds to higher LIR, and the ~700 z~3 detections shrink accordingly. The stress-test note is right that Figures 2 and 4 use the same template library, so they do not independently validate the detectability claim. The redshift accuracy simulation is a forward model assuming the very PAH features that are the science goal; the paper does not oversell this, but a skeptical reader should not treat Figure 4 as a measured performance. There are also no error bars on the counts, and the sensitivity numbers come from in-prep papers, so the forecast cannot be fully reproduced yet.

These are not fatal flaws; they are the normal epistemic limits of a Phase A planning paper. The authors do not claim more than expected yields, and they explicitly note the lower-limit nature. I would have liked at least a rough sensitivity test varying PAH strength, but the omission is proportionate to the paper's purpose.

Who is this for? People writing PRIMA GO proposals, the extragalactic IR community, and anyone planning synergies with ALMA/JWST. It deserves a serious referee, but the referee should ask for a short discussion of how the yields depend on SED assumptions.

Recommendation: send to peer review, with the expectation that the authors add a caveat or a simple test of template choice.

Referee Report

4 major / 5 minor

Summary. The paper proposes PRIDES, a ~200-hour PRIMA imaging survey over 1.6 deg^2 of the COSMOS field with the PRIMAger instrument, reaching ~70 uJy at 5 sigma in the 25-80 um band. It argues that such a survey will detect the rest-frame mid-IR emission of tens of thousands of galaxies out to z=4, including roughly 18,000 at z~1, 4,000 at z~2, 700 at z~3, and 30 at z~4 (Table 1), and will enable studies of dust-obscured star formation, PAH and silicate features, dust properties, and dust-obscured AGN. The projected yields are derived by translating the assumed flux limit into L_IR using average local starburst SED templates, converting to SFR and stellar mass, and counting COSMOS2020 galaxies above those thresholds. The paper also presents simulated PRIMA photometry and redshift accuracy for z~3 dusty galaxies and discusses synergies with current and future facilities.

Significance. If the predicted yields are even approximately correct, PRIDES would open the first statistically meaningful view of rest-frame mid-IR emission for typical galaxies at z>3, directly complementing JWST and ALMA and targeting key questions in obscured star formation and AGN census. The paper is transparent in using public catalogs (COSMOS2020) and published SED templates, and its quantitative predictions are falsifiable. However, the central numbers rest on an assumed instrument sensitivity from in-prep papers and on a single-template extrapolation from local starbursts to z=3-4 main-sequence galaxies. Because the same templates are used for the detectability argument and the redshift-accuracy simulation, the current analysis does not yet demonstrate robustness to the dominant systematic uncertainties. The scientific case is plausible, but the quantitative claims need to be placed on firmer footing before this can be viewed as a reliable feasibility study.

major comments (4)

[Sec. 3.1, Table 1] The expected source counts and the stated z=3 limit of L_IR=10^12 L_sun depend on converting the 70 uJy sensitivity to a physical limit using the average SED of observed starburst galaxies (Kirkpatrick et al. 2012). At z=3, PRIMA Band 1 samples rest-frame ~6-20 um, where PAH features and hot dust dominate the flux. If high-redshift main-sequence galaxies have PAH equivalent widths a factor ~2 lower than the starburst templates (plausible for lower metallicity or harder radiation fields), the implied L_IR at the flux limit increases by a comparable factor and the Table 1 yields shrink substantially. The paper calls the counts lower limits because of COSMOS2020 catalog cuts, but the SED normalization is a two-sided systematic, not a lower-limit effect. Please repeat the calculation with a range of templates, varying PAH strength and AGN fraction, and report how Table 1 and the z=3 detectio
[Sec. 3.2] The entire survey design and the 70 uJy depth rest on an assumed average sensitivity of 250 uJy (5 sigma) in 10 hours over 1 deg^2 and on 'current expected limiting sensitivities' from in-prep papers (Ciesla et al. in prep., this volume). No derivation or verifiable reference is provided. Since this is load-bearing for the 200-hour estimate and the projected source counts, the authors should either present the sensitivity model or cite a publicly available instrument-performance document, and ideally quote a plausible sensitivity uncertainty range.
[Sec. 3.2, Fig. 2 (left)] The paper acknowledges that 'confusion will be significant' at PRIMA angular resolutions but does not quantify how source confusion and deblending failures reduce the number of clean detections. Table 1 implicitly assumes every COSMOS2020 source above the flux threshold is detected and measured. Please provide a completeness estimate, either through existing PRIMA confusion simulations (e.g., Bethermin et al. 2024; Donnellan et al. 2024) or a simple simulation of the deblending efficiency as a function of source density and PSF size, and show the effect on the predicted yields.
[Sec. 3.2, Fig. 4] The redshift-accuracy simulation uses the same Kirkpatrick et al. SED library that is used to claim PAH detectability and to compute Table 1. The good agreement in Fig. 4 is therefore not an independent validation of the central detectability assumption. In addition, the figure is presented without details of the simulation method, noise realization, number of sources, or fitting procedure. Please describe the simulation, and recompute the redshift accuracy with alternative PAH-strength assumptions to show how the claimed accuracy degrades when the PAH fraction is lower.

minor comments (5)

[Conclusions] In the last paragraph, 'PRIDE' should be 'PRIDES'.
[Fig. 1 caption] There is a typo: 'The model (generated with the FSPS Python package3–5 shows' appears to be missing a closing parenthesis. Please correct.
[Sec. 3.2] The statement that JWST survey sensitivity flux densities are '<10^-6 uJy' is inconsistent with typical AB limits by orders of magnitude. The authors likely mean <10^-6 Jy (i.e., ~1 uJy) or a value around 0.01-0.1 uJy for deep NIRCam imaging. Please fix.
[Sec. 3.2 vs Conclusions] The survey time is quoted as '~200 hours' in Section 3.2 and 'less than 300 hours' in the Conclusions. Please make the numbers consistent and explain any contingency.
[Code, Data, and Materials Availability] The statement that PRIMA sensitivity data 'can be obtained from the respective studies published in the same special volume' is too vague for reproducibility. Please cite the specific instrument papers or provide a public link.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity: PRIDES yield estimates are a forward model from external SED templates and COSMOS2020, not a hidden fit.

full rationale

The central derivation (Section 3.1, Table 1) starts from a PRIMAger 5σ limit of 70 µJy and translates it into LIR using the Kirkpatrick et al. (2012) average far-IR SEDs, into SFR via Kennicutt (1998), and into M* via an external main-sequence relation; it then counts COSMOS2020 sources above those thresholds. Every step is an explicit, externally anchored calibration applied to an independent catalog; no parameter is fit to the quantity being predicted. The PAH detectability and redshift-accuracy simulations (Figures 2 right and 4) are forward simulations using the same SED templates that the survey would observe, so they illustrate sensitivity under an explicit assumption rather than empirically validating the template library. That is a modeling caveat (the same-template assumption can bias the forecast if high-z PAH strengths differ), not a circular derivation. Instrument sensitivities are quoted from companion papers in the same volume. Self-citations (ALPINE, CHAMPS, etc.) are contextual and not load-bearing for the yield calculation. No step reduces to its own inputs by construction.

Assumptions & free parameters 2 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The paper's central feasibility claim depends on assumed instrument performance (sensitivity and efficiency), on SED templates and scaling relations taken from the literature, and on the COSMOS2020 catalog. No new physical entities are introduced. The main model dependence is the use of starburst templates for main-sequence galaxies, which could bias all derived limits.

free parameters (2)

PRIMAger Band 1 sensitivity = 70 microJy (5 sigma) after about 200 hr over 1.6 deg2
Assumed from current PRIMA performance estimates (Ciesla et al., in prep.); all detection numbers scale with this.
Time overhead efficiency = 65%
Assumed efficiency factor converting raw exposure time to total survey time (Section 3.2).

assumptions (5)

domain assumption Lambda CDM cosmology with H0=70, Omega_L=0.7, Omega_m=0.3
Used for distances and volumes throughout; conclusions are not sensitive to these values.
domain assumption Kirkpatrick et al. (2012) starburst SED templates represent the rest-frame mid-IR SEDs of z=1-4 galaxies
Used to translate PRIMA sensitivity into LIR limits and to simulate photometry and redshift accuracy; if high-z SEDs differ, yields change.
domain assumption Kennicutt (1998) LIR-to-SFR and Schreiber et al. (2015) main-sequence relations apply at z=1-4
Used to convert LIR to SFR and then to stellar mass limits in Table 1.
domain assumption PRIMA mission will be built and operate at the assumed sensitivity and mapping speed
The entire survey feasibility rests on the mission being selected and performing as expected; PRIMA is in Phase A study.
domain assumption COSMOS2020 catalog is representative of the underlying galaxy population
Expected counts are derived by counting COSMOS2020 sources in redshift and luminosity bins.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of Understanding the Evolution of Black Hole Accretion and Dust out to z=4 with a Deep Imaging Extragalactic Survey with PRIMA." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/OE4DQURK

@misc{pith2026250901674,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: Understanding the Evolution of Black Hole Accretion and Dust out to z=4 with a Deep Imaging Extragalactic Survey with PRIMA},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/OE4DQURK}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2509.01674}
}

abstract

The cosmic evolution of obscured star formation, dust properties and production mechanisms, and the prevalence of dust-obscured AGN out to high redshifts are currently some of the hot topics in astrophysics. While much progress has been made in the early days with Spitzer and Herschel, these facilities have not reached the necessary depths to observe the mid-IR light of high-redshift (z > 3) galaxies. Recently, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has filled in the blue side of the rest-frame mid-IR. The Atacama Large (Sub)Millimeter Array (ALMA), on the other hand, provides excellent sensitivity in the far-IR regime, allowing the study of dust and gas properties at high redshifts. Filling the wavelength gap between JWST and ALMA is crucial to progress our understanding of early galaxy evolution - and this will be an important goal in the next decades. The Probe far-IR Mission for Astrophysics (PRIMA), with sensitive imaging and spectroscopic capabilities at 24-240$\mu$m and currently in Phase A study, will achieve this and provide insights into early galaxy evolution, Black Hole growth, and dust production mechanisms. Here we present PRIDES, a possible deep and wide-area survey over 1.6 square-degrees of the COSMOS field with PRIMA to study these science cases.

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write newline

" write newline "" before.all 'output.state := FUNCTION blank.sep after.quote 'output.state := FUNCTION fin.entry output.state after.quoted.block = 'skip 'add.period if write newline FUNCTION new.block output.state before.all = 'skip output.state after.quote = after.quoted.blo...

Pith tools

Reviewed August 5, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.

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