Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

Didier Sornette; Maochuan Zhang; Qinghua Lei; Scott L. Nooner; William S. D. Wilcock; William W. Chadwick Jr.

arxiv: 2511.06128 · v6 · submitted 2025-11-08 · ⚛️ physics.geo-ph

Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment

Qinghua Lei , Didier Sornette , William W. Chadwick Jr. , Scott L. Nooner , Maochuan Zhang , William S. D. Wilcock This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-17 23:45 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification ⚛️ physics.geo-ph

keywords eruption forecastingAxial Seamountvolcanic predictabilityreal-time monitoringphysics-based forecasttransparent protocoldelayed disclosure

0 comments

The pith

The Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment creates a falsifiable protocol that archives every prediction for later public release to test eruption predictability limits.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper introduces the EFE as a real-time volcanology experiment that issues monthly forecasts based on continuous monitoring data and commits to publishing every forecast after the event or after it is shown incorrect. This setup draws from financial forecasting methods to enforce cryptographic timestamping and delayed disclosure, ensuring no selective reporting. A sympathetic reader would care because it turns eruption prediction from isolated claims into a cumulative, verifiable record that can reveal what works and what does not. The protocol aims to ground forecasts in physical understanding rather than post-hoc interpretation.

Core claim

The EFE supplies a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and hashed before issuance, with full diagnostic documents released only after the next eruption or after the forecast is disproven, thereby creating an open, cumulative test of whether real-time physics-based analysis can establish the practical limits of volcanic eruption prediction.

What carries the argument

The EFE protocol, which uses cryptographic SHA-256 hashing and timestamped archiving of monthly forecasts derived from Regional Cabled Array data, followed by delayed public release of the full documents.

If this is right

Forecasts will be issued monthly or more often using live data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative array at Axial Seamount.
Every forecast, whether correct or incorrect, will eventually be published with its full diagnostics and probabilistic analysis.
The resulting public record will allow direct measurement of how well current physical understanding supports eruption prediction.
The experiment will continue until enough eruptions have occurred to evaluate the practical limits of the forecasting approach.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

The same delayed-disclosure and cryptographic archiving method could be adapted to other natural hazards where selective publication of predictions is a concern.
Over multiple cycles the experiment may reveal which specific observables from the cabled array most improve forecast reliability.
If the protocol succeeds, it could encourage similar open-verification standards at other frequently monitored volcanoes.

Load-bearing premise

That forecasts produced from the real-time monitoring data will be accurate and informative enough to actually test the limits of predictability rather than simply accumulating uninformative guesses.

What would settle it

A sequence of three or more eruptions in which the released forecasts show no better success rate than random guessing or no identifiable improvement in skill over successive cycles.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2511.06128 by Didier Sornette, Maochuan Zhang, Qinghua Lei, Scott L. Nooner, William S. D. Wilcock, William W. Chadwick Jr..

**Figure 1.** Figure 1: Bathymetric map of the summit caldera of Axial Seamount showing the network of cabled bottom pressure recorders (BPRs; red circles) and seismometers (black squares) installed as part of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) Regional Cabled Array (RCA). 4 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p004_1.png] view at source ↗

**Figure 2.** Figure 2: shows the temporal evolution of seafloor displacement inferred from the single-station BPR record at the centre of the caldera and from differential BPR measurements. 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Time D e pth (m) -1512.5 -1512 -1511.5 -1511 -1510.5 -1510 (a) -1509.5 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Time D e pth (m) -10 -9.8 -9.6 -9.4 -9.2 -9 -8.8 -8.6 -8.4 (b) -8.2 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p005_2.png] view at source ↗

**Figure 3.** Figure 3: Seismic measurements at Axial Seamount from the OOI-RCA Earthquake Catalogue [15, 25] (updated as of 24 January 2026). (a) Magnitude-time sequence of earthquakes at Axial Seamount; the red line indicates the completeness magnitude of the catalogue. (b) Time series of cumulative Benioff strain derived from equation (2) with q = 1/2. We extract those events with Mw ≥ Mc and then compute the cumulative measu… view at source ↗

read the original abstract

We introduce the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time initiative designed to test the predictability of volcanic eruptions through a transparent, physics-based framework. The experiment is inspired by the Financial Bubble Experiment, adapting its principles of digital authentication, timestamped archiving, and delayed disclosure to the field of volcanology. The EFE implements a reproducible protocol in which each forecast is securely timestamped and cryptographically hashed (SHA-256) before being made public. The corresponding forecast documents, containing detailed diagnostics and probabilistic analyses, will be released after the next eruption or, if the forecasts are proven incorrect, at a later date. This procedure ensures full transparency while preventing premature interpretation or controversy surrounding public predictions. Forecasts will be issued monthly, or more frequently if required, using real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array at Axial Seamount. By committing to publish all forecasts, successful or not, the EFE establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting. The ultimate goal is to transform eruption prediction into a cumulative and testable science founded on open verification, reproducibility, and physical understanding.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Desk Editor's Note private letter to a colleague

The paper sets up a transparent forecasting protocol at Axial Seamount but leaves the actual physics-based method unspecified.

read the letter

The key point is that this paper describes a protocol for transparent, timestamped eruption forecasts at Axial Seamount rather than presenting new predictions or results. They use SHA-256 hashes to commit to forecasts in advance and plan to release the full documents after the next eruption or when they are shown to be wrong. What stands out is the adaptation of the financial bubble experiment's transparency rules to volcanology. Monthly forecasts based on real-time data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array could build a useful dataset over time. The commitment to publish all outcomes, successful or not, is a clean way to keep the record honest and avoid selective reporting. The protocol itself looks logically sound on the transparency side. Cryptographic timestamping prevents retroactive changes, and the delayed disclosure rule ensures everything comes out eventually. This setup could help evaluate the real limits of eruption forecasting at a site with excellent monitoring. The soft spot is the missing description of the physics-based forecasting method. The abstract talks about using seismic, deformation, and hydrothermal data in a physics-based framework with probabilistic analyses, but no specific models, equations, or calibration approach are given. This leaves open whether the forecasts will be detailed enough to provide a strong test of predictability or if they might remain broad enough to be hard to falsify. This paper is for people working on volcanic hazard assessment and for those interested in open science practices in prediction. It sets up an experiment that could be valuable if the methods are developed further. I recommend sending it to peer review. The transparency mechanism is worth referee attention, and revisions can address the lack of forecasting details.

Referee Report

1 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript introduces the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment (EFE), a real-time protocol to test volcanic eruption predictability at Axial Seamount. It adapts the Financial Bubble Experiment's approach by using SHA-256 cryptographic hashes for timestamped, archived forecasts with delayed disclosure of full documents (after the next eruption or if forecasts prove incorrect). Monthly (or more frequent) forecasts will be generated from real-time Regional Cabled Array data (seismic, deformation, hydrothermal) within an unspecified physics-based framework, with the goal of creating a transparent, reproducible, and falsifiable record to evaluate eruption forecasting limits.

Significance. The cryptographic commitment mechanism and pledge to publish all forecasts (successful or not) constitute a clear strength, providing a logically sound safeguard against hindsight bias and enabling cumulative, verifiable progress in volcanology. If implemented, this protocol could meaningfully advance the field by establishing open verification standards. However, the overall significance for probing predictability limits remains constrained because the manuscript supplies no concrete description of the physics-based forecasting component.

major comments (1)

[Abstract] Abstract: The central claim that the EFE 'establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting' depends on the forecasts being generated by a physics-based framework applied to Regional Cabled Array data. No details are given on the specific models, governing equations, input variables, or probabilistic calibration method. Without these, it is impossible to determine whether the forecasts will be sufficiently constrained and physically grounded to permit informative falsification rather than remaining vague enough to evade clear refutation.

minor comments (1)

The manuscript would benefit from a brief forward reference to where the detailed forecasting methodology (models, equations, calibration) will be documented, to clarify the scope of the present protocol paper.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

1 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their constructive review, particularly for recognizing the value of the cryptographic commitment and delayed-disclosure protocol. We address the major comment below and will revise the manuscript to provide additional clarity.

read point-by-point responses

Referee: [Abstract] Abstract: The central claim that the EFE 'establishes a scientifically rigorous, falsifiable protocol to evaluate the limits of eruption forecasting' depends on the forecasts being generated by a physics-based framework applied to Regional Cabled Array data. No details are given on the specific models, governing equations, input variables, or probabilistic calibration method. Without these, it is impossible to determine whether the forecasts will be sufficiently constrained and physically grounded to permit informative falsification rather than remaining vague enough to evade clear refutation.

Authors: We agree that the manuscript would be strengthened by greater specificity on the physics-based framework. The core contribution of the paper is the transparent, timestamped, and archived forecasting protocol itself, which ensures that whatever models are used can be evaluated cumulatively and without hindsight bias. To address the concern, we will add a new section to the revised manuscript that outlines the general forecasting approach. This will describe how real-time Regional Cabled Array observables (seismic event rates and locations, vertical and horizontal deformation, and hydrothermal temperature/chemistry anomalies) are interpreted through established physical models of Axial Seamount's magma reservoir and dike propagation. We will reference the governing physical principles (e.g., poroelastic deformation, magma chamber pressurization, and fracture mechanics) and the probabilistic calibration method based on historical eruption cycles and monitoring thresholds. Individual forecast documents will contain the precise equations, input values, and likelihood assignments for each issuance, but the added section will demonstrate that the framework is sufficiently constrained to allow informative falsification. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity in the proposed experimental protocol

full rationale

The paper proposes the Axial Seamount Eruption Forecasting Experiment as a methodological framework for issuing timestamped, cryptographically hashed forecasts with delayed disclosure, drawing inspiration from the Financial Bubble Experiment to ensure transparency and falsifiability. No derivation chain, governing equations, fitted parameters, or predictions are presented that reduce by construction to the paper's own inputs. The central claim concerns the establishment of an independent, reproducible protocol using real-time monitoring data, without self-definitional loops, load-bearing self-citations for uniqueness theorems, or renaming of known results as new derivations. The physics-based aspect is referenced at a high level but does not involve any internal reduction or circular justification within the manuscript.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The paper is a protocol proposal rather than a derivation; it rests on the domain assumption that existing monitoring data can support forecasts but introduces no free parameters, new physical entities, or ad-hoc mathematical axioms.

axioms (1)

domain assumption Real-time monitoring data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Regional Cabled Array can support physics-based eruption forecasts
This assumption underpins the decision to issue forecasts using the available data stream.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5515 in / 1176 out tokens · 56942 ms · 2026-05-17T23:45:54.004957+00:00 · methodology

discussion (0)

Lean theorems connected to this paper

Citations machine-checked in the Pith Canon. Every link opens the source theorem in the public Lean library.

IndisputableMonolith/Foundation/DimensionForcing.lean; IndisputableMonolith/Foundation/Breath1024.lean 8-tick periodicity and discrete scale invariance from single distinction echoes

?

echoes
ECHOES: this paper passage has the same mathematical shape or conceptual pattern as the Recognition theorem, but is not a direct formal dependency.

The first-order expansion of the general LPPLS formulation is given by Ω(t) = A + {B + C cos[ω ln(t_c − t) − ϕ]} (t_c − t)^m
IndisputableMonolith/Cost/FunctionalEquation.lean; IndisputableMonolith/Constants J-cost uniqueness and phi-ladder forcing echoes

?

echoes
ECHOES: this paper passage has the same mathematical shape or conceptual pattern as the Recognition theorem, but is not a direct formal dependency.

log-periodic power-law singularity (LPPLS) formulation... partial breakdown of continuous scale invariance into discrete scale invariance

What do these tags mean?

matches: The paper's claim is directly supported by a theorem in the formal canon.
supports: The theorem supports part of the paper's argument, but the paper may add assumptions or extra steps.
extends: The paper goes beyond the formal theorem; the theorem is a base layer rather than the whole result.
uses: The paper appears to rely on the theorem as machinery.
contradicts: The paper's claim conflicts with a theorem or certificate in the canon.
unclear: Pith found a possible connection, but the passage is too broad, indirect, or ambiguous to say the theorem truly supports the claim.

Reference graph

Works this paper leans on

32 extracted references · 32 canonical work pages · 3 internal anchors

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[1] [1]

The Financial Bubble Experiment: advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations

D. Sornette, R. Woodard, M. Fedorovsky, S. Riemann, H. Woodard, and W.-X. Zhou. The financial bubble experiment: Advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations. arXiv preprint arXiv:0911.0454, 2009. The Financial Crisis Observatory, ETH Zurich

work page internal anchor Pith review Pith/arXiv arXiv 2009

[2] [3]

The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations Volume II-Master Document

D. Sornette, R. Woodard, M. Fedorovsky, S. Reimann, H. Woodard, and W.-X. Zhou. The financial bubble experiment: Advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations, volume ii — master document (end of the experiment). arXiv preprint arXiv:1005.5675v2, 2010. The Financial Crisis Observatory, ETH Zurich

work page internal anchor Pith review Pith/arXiv arXiv 2010

[3] [4]

The Financial Bubble Experiment: Advanced Diagnostics and Forecasts of Bubble Terminations, Volume III

R. Woodard, D. Sornette, and M. Fedorovsky. The financial bubble experiment: Advanced diag- nostics and forecasts of bubble terminations, volume iii (beginning of experiment + post-mortem analysis). arXiv preprint arXiv:1011.2882, 2010. The Financial Crisis Observatory, ETH Zurich

work page internal anchor Pith review Pith/arXiv arXiv 2010

[4] [5]

The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2017

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2017

work page 2017

[5] [6]

Lei and D

Q. Lei and D. Sornette. Unified failure model for landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes. Communications Earth & Environment, 6:390, 2025

work page 2025

[6] [7]

Lei and D

Q. Lei and D. Sornette. Log-periodic signatures prior to volcanic eruptions: Evidence from 34 events.Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 666:119496, 2025

work page 2025

[7] [8]

Sornette and C

D. Sornette and C. G. Sammis. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake predictions.Journal de Physique I France, 5:607–619, 1995

work page 1995

[8] [9]

Saleur, C

H. Saleur, C. G. Sammis, and D. Sornette. Discrete scale invariance, complex fractal dimen- sions, and log-periodic fluctuations in seismicity.Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 101(B8):17661–17677, 1996

work page 1996

[9] [10]

Sornette

D. Sornette. Discrete-scale invariance and complex dimensions.Physics Reports, 297(5):239–270, 1998

work page 1998

[10] [11]

Lei and D

Q. Lei and D. Sornette. Log-periodic power law singularities in landslide dynamics: Statistical evidence from 52 crises.Geophysical Research Letters, 52:e2025GL116379, 2025

work page 2025

[11] [12]

Lei and D

Q. Lei and D. Sornette. Oscillatory finite-time singularities in rockbursts.International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, 192:106156, 2025

work page 2025

[12] [13]

W. W. Chadwick, Jr., S. L. Nooner, D. A. Butterfield, and M. D. Lilley. Seafloor deformation and forecasts of the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount.Nature Geoscience, 5:474–477, 2012. Published: 10 June 2012

work page 2011

[13] [14]

S. L. Nooner and W. W. Chadwick, Jr. Inflation-predictable behavior and co-eruption deformation at Axial Seamount.Science, 354(6318):1399–1403, 2016

work page 2016

[14] [15]

W. S. D. Wilcock, M. Tolstoy, F. Waldhauser, C. Garcia, Y. J. Tan, D. R. Bohnenstiehl, J. Caplan- Auerbach, R. P. Dziak, A. F. Arnulf, and M. E. Mann. Seismic constraints on caldera dynamics from the 2015 Axial Seamount eruption.Science, 354(6318):1395–1399, 2016. 10

work page 2015

[15] [16]

W. W. Chadwick, Jr., W. S. D. Wilcock, S. L. Nooner, J. W. Beeson, A. M. Sawyer, and T.-K. Lau. Geodetic monitoring at Axial Seamount since its 2015 eruption reveals a waning magma supply and tightly linked rates of deformation and seismicity.Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 22:e2021GC010153, 2022

work page 2015

[16] [17]

D. S. Kelley, J. R. Delaney, and S. K. Juniper. Establishing a new era of submarine volcanic observatories: Cabling axial seamount and the endeavour segment of the juan de fuca ridge. Marine Geology, 352:426–450, 2014

work page 2014

[17] [18]

W. W. Chadwick, Jr., W. S. D. Wilcock, S. L. Nooner, J. W. Beeson, and M. Zhang. Axial seamount has suddenly woken up! an update on the latest inflation and seismic data and a new eruption forecast. Abstract V22B-03 presented at 2024 Fall Meeting, AGU, Washington, DC, 9–13 Dec., 2024

work page 2024

[18] [19]

Acocella, M

V. Acocella, M. Ripepe, E. Rivalta, A. Peltier, F. Galetto, and E. Joseph. Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions.Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5:5–22, 2024

work page 2024

[19] [20]

G. S. Sasagawa, M. J. Cook, and M. A. Zumberge. Drift-corrected seafloor pressure observations of vertical deformation at axial seamount 2013–2014.Earth and Space Science, 3, 2016

work page 2013

[20] [21]

G. S. Sasagawa and M. A. Zumberge. Drift corrected pressure time series at axial seamount, july 2018 to november 2021 – a progress report. InAbstract G25A-0340 presented at 2021 Fall Meeting, AGU, New Orleans, LA, 13–17 Dec., 2021

work page 2018

[21] [22]

Sullivan, S

C. Sullivan, S. L. Nooner, W. W. Chadwick, Jr., G. S. Sasagawa, and J. W. Beeson. Reconciling bottom pressure recorder and self-calibrating pressure recorder signals at axial seamount. In Abstract presented at 2025 Fall Meeting, AGU, New Orleans, LA, 15–19 Dec., 2025

work page 2025

[22] [23]

T. C. Hanks and H. Kanamori. A moment magnitude scale.Journal of Geophysical Research, 84(B5):2348–2350, 1979

work page 1979

[23] [24]

Wiemer and M

S. Wiemer and M. Wyss. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from alaska, the western united states, and japan.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90(4):859–869, 2000

work page 2000

[24] [25]

W. S. D. Wilcock, F. Waldhauser, and M. Tolstoy. Catalogs of earthquakes recorded on axial seamount from january 2015 through november 2015, 2017. Investigators: William Wilcock, Maya Tolstoy, Felix Waldhauser

work page 2015

[25] [26]

The energy release in great earthquakes.Journal of Geophysical Research, 82(20):2981–2987, 1977

Hiroo Kanamori. The energy release in great earthquakes.Journal of Geophysical Research, 82(20):2981–2987, 1977

work page 1977

[26] [27]

Bufe and D

C.G. Bufe and D. J. Varnes. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater san francisco bay region.Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B6):9871–9883, 1993

work page 1993

[27] [28]

Filimonov and D

V. Filimonov and D. Sornette. A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model.Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 392(17):3698–3707, 2013

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