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arxiv: 2602.13678 · v3 · submitted 2026-02-14 · 🌌 astro-ph.SR · astro-ph.GA

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· Lean Theorem

AT 2025abao: The fourth luminous red nova in M 31

A. Reguitti , A. Pastorello , G. Valerin , F. D. Romanov , A. Siviero , Y.-Z. Cai , S. Ciroi , N. Elias-Rosa
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T. Iijima E. Kankare N. Koivisto T. Kravtsov E. Mason K. Matilainen A. C. Mura P. Ochner T. M. Reynolds M. D. Stritzinger
Authors on Pith no claims yet

Pith reviewed 2026-05-15 22:42 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.SR astro-ph.GA
keywords luminous red novaAT 2025abaoM 31common envelopeAGB starlight curve plateauprogenitorbinary merger
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The pith

The light curve behavior of luminous red novae is determined by the size and hydrogen content of their common envelopes.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper reports observations of AT 2025abao, a luminous red nova in the Andromeda galaxy and the fourth such event discovered there. The object is linked to an asymptotic giant branch star and displays a light curve with a rapid rise to peak followed by a long plateau in red light. Spectra show the typical cooling and line development seen in other LRNe. The authors argue that whether an LRN exhibits two distinct peaks or a plateau depends on how extended and hydrogen-rich the common envelope around the merging binary is.

Core claim

AT 2025abao reached a peak magnitude of g=15.1 and then maintained a 70-day plateau in red bands while declining slowly in blue. Its spectra evolved from a blue continuum with narrow Balmer emission to a yellow photosphere at 6000 K with metal absorption lines, and later to an orange continuum with molecular bands. Archival data provide the infrared SED of the M-giant/AGB progenitor for the first time. The authors propose that the observed dichotomy between double-peaked and plateau light curves in luminous red novae arises from differences in the extent and hydrogen richness of the common envelope.

What carries the argument

The common envelope surrounding the progenitor binary system, whose extent and hydrogen richness controls the light-curve morphology.

If this is right

  • LRNe with more extended common envelopes produce longer plateaus rather than distinct second peaks.
  • Detailed progenitor SEDs in the infrared can be obtained for future LRNe to confirm AGB associations.
  • Spectral features like broad Ca II absorption indicate fast outflows in addition to slower winds.
  • This event provides the first infrared SED of an LRN progenitor consistent with an M giant.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • This explanation could unify observations of LRNe with binary evolution models that predict envelope stripping during merger.
  • More events with archival progenitor data would allow statistical tests of the envelope hypothesis.
  • The model implies that plateau LRNe might retain more hydrogen in their ejecta, affecting late-time chemistry.

Load-bearing premise

The AGB star WNTR23bzdiq is the actual progenitor of AT 2025abao, inferred solely from its position and matching spectral energy distribution.

What would settle it

A measurement of the proper motion of WNTR23bzdiq that shows it is not bound to the location of AT 2025abao or has a different distance would disprove the association.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2602.13678 by A. C. Mura, A. Pastorello, A. Reguitti, A. Siviero, E. Kankare, E. Mason, F. D. Romanov, G. Valerin, K. Matilainen, M. D. Stritzinger, N. Elias-Rosa, N. Koivisto, P. Ochner, S. Ciroi, T. Iijima, T. Kravtsov, T. M. Reynolds, Y.-Z. Cai.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Finding chart of AT 2025abao. The colour image is a composition of B, V, and r frames obtained by the Asiago 67/92cm Schmidt telescope on 2025 November 7, at the time of the maximum light. The spiral disc of M 31 is visible towards the left edge of the frame. The transient location is highlighted by the zoomed-in view in the panel to the right. Scale and orientation are reported. tospheric temperature of o… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Optical light curves of AT 2025abao. Top panel: the entire evolution since October 2024, when the follow-up campaign of WNTR23bzdiq conducted by K25 ended. The pre-LRN light curve, its decline to the minimum, and the final rapid rise to the LRN peak are visible. The temporal uncertainty in the spectrophotometry data from SPHEREx is due to the datapoints being collected across a time interval of about 5 and… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Colour curves of AT 2025abao. Top panel: Evolution of the g−r colour from −1.1 yr to +3 months. The colour changes prominently between the slow pre-outburst rise and optically thick phase and the fast rise and the first peak. Bottom panel: Evolution of multiple colour curves (B − V, g − r, r − i, u − g, u − i) around the maximum light and plateau. V-band light curve, which peaks at MV = −9.6 mag). Then, it… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p006_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Pseudo-bolometric (just the g, c, V,r, o, I bands) light curve of AT 2025abao, in black; and UV+Optical+NIR (UVW2 to K bands) bolometric curve of the main outburst, in red. The separation is made at phase −3.5 d, when our multi-band photometric follow-up campaign started (after this phase, the gcVroI pseudo-bolometric is shown as a dashed line). While the bolometric luminosity of AT 2025abao was sim￾ilar t… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: SED of AT 2025abao at the epoch of the g-band maximum, together with the BB best-fit. A single Planckian function is sufficient to obtain a good match. Its parameters are TBB = 5740 ± 140 K and RBB = 870 ± 50 R⊙ [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Evolution of the BB radius, temperature, and luminosity of AT 2025abao starting from phase −15 d. Before −3.5 d (epoch marked by the dashed grey line), the parameters are determined based on only the filters between u and I, and afterwards they are estimated from the UV to the NIR coverage. 3.7. SPHEREx observations 3.7.1. SED of the precursor The Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch o… view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Comparison of the earliest spectrum of AT 2025abao to the early spectra of the comparison objects AT 2019zhd and V1309 Sco (Mason et al. 2010). All objects show a hot, blue continuum with narrow emissions from Hα and Hβ lines. At this early phase, V1309 Sco already presents signs of metal absorptions. plus OSIRIS were reduced using the foscgui14 pipeline. Finally, the spectra of the 3.58m Telescopio Nazio… view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Left: Spectral time series of AT 2025abao and basic line identification. The spectra are corrected for blueshift and total reddening and are plotted in logarithmic scale. The mid-resolution GTC+OSIRIS spectrum is highlighted in purple, while the NOT+ALFOSC gr7 and gr8 spectra, taken on the same night, are shown in blue and red, respectively. Phases in days are reported on the right side of each spectrum. … view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Zoomed-in view of some spectral lines visible in the −3.4 d Echelle spectrum. Left: Ca ii H&K. Right: Hα and Hβ, overlapped in the velocity space, with a narrow blueshifted absorption clearly visible [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p010_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Zoomed-in view of the Hα and Hβ lines, in velocity space, in the +34 days Echelle spectrum. By the +2.7 d spectrum, the continuum temperature has al￾ready declined to 5200 K (with the spectral continuum emission peaking at around 5600 Å). The gas cooling is confirmed by the disappearance of the He I 6678 line. Otherwise, the spectrum did not change significantly, with the most prominent metal transi￾tions… view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Line identification on the mid￾resolution spectrum of AT 2025abao taken with GTC+OSIRIS at +18.5 d (black), compared with a late time (+103 d) spec￾trum of LRN AT 2011kp (red line; from Pastorello et al. 2019). Transitions from multiplets of neutral and singly ionised metals are marked. In the GTC spectrum, Hα shows a narrow P-Cygni pro￾file with a dominant absorption with a minimum blueshifted by −300 km… view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: Matches of the spectral energy distribution of the precursor of AT 2025abao observed by SPHEREx with three DUSTY models. They are constructed using a PHOENIX atmospheric model of Teff = 3100 K extinguished by a dusty shell with silicate composition, Td = 1450 K, and τV = 4, 5, 6. However, the dust mass we obtain, following the procedures of Reguitti et al. (2026), is only ≈ 1.5 × 10−8 M⊙; that is, one ord… view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: In conclusion, it will be crucial to observe AT 2025abao years after the event with space telescopes, especially in the in￾frared domain (as done by Karambelkar et al. 2026, or with the forthcoming Roman, Akeson et al. 2019), to see what kind of outcome remains and if the system returns to a state similar to the pre-LRN one, with an inflated red star. We note that a red (su￾per)giant survivor was observed… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of the luminous red nova (LRN) AT 2025abao, the fourth discovered in M 31. The LRN, associated to the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star WNTR23bzdiq, was discovered during the fast rise following the minimum phase. It reached its peak at $g=15.1$ mag ($M_g=-9.5\pm0.1$ mag), and then it settled onto a long-duration plateau in the red bands, lasting 70 days, while it was slowly linearly declining in the blue bands. At the peak the object showed similarities with the canonical LRNe V838 Monocerotis, V1309 Scorpii, and the faint and fast-evolving AT 2019zhd, which is the third LRN in M31, though the later evolution is different. Spectroscopically, AT 2025abao evolved as a canonical LRN: the early spectra present a blue continuum with narrow Balmer lines in emission; at the peak, the spectral continuum has cooled to a yellow colour, with a photospheric temperature of 6000 K. Balmer lines had weakened, while absorption lines from metals (Fe I, Fe II, Sc II, Ba II, Ti II) had developed, and they were particularly broad from the UV Ca II H&K lines. Medium- and high-resolution spectra reveal narrow ($\sim$50 km/s) absorption and broad ($\sim$450 km/s) emission profiles in the Balmer lines, from a slower wind and a faster outflow, respectively. Finally, late-time spectra show an orange continuum ($T\sim4000-5000$ K), a return in strength of the Balmer lines and the formation of molecular absorption bands. AT 2025abao is the rare case of an LRN with detailed archival information regarding the progenitor system. For the first time, we obtained the spectral energy distribution in the infrared of the precursor of an LRN, which is consistent with that of an M~giant/AGB. We propose that the dichotomy of light-curve behaviour in LRNe (two peaks vs. plateau) can be explained by the extent and H-richness of the common envelope.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 2 minor

Summary. The manuscript reports photometric and spectroscopic observations of the luminous red nova AT 2025abao, the fourth such event in M 31. It describes a fast rise to peak at g=15.1 (M_g=-9.5), followed by a 70-day plateau in red bands with slow decline in blue, and spectral evolution from an early blue continuum with narrow Balmer emission lines through a yellow photosphere (T~6000 K) with developing metal absorption (Fe I, Fe II, Ca II) to late-time orange continuum (T~4000-5000 K) with molecular bands. The transient is associated with the AGB star WNTR23bzdiq on the basis of positional coincidence and infrared SED matching, and the authors propose that differences in common-envelope extent and H-richness explain the observed two-peak versus plateau dichotomy among LRNe.

Significance. If the progenitor association holds, the work supplies one of the few LRNe with pre-outburst archival progenitor data, including the first reported infrared SED for such a system. The photometric and spectroscopic sequences are consistent with canonical LRN evolution and enlarge the M 31 sample, providing a useful plateau-type example for testing binary-interaction models.

major comments (2)
  1. [Progenitor Identification] Progenitor section: the claim that AT 2025abao is physically associated with WNTR23bzdiq (and therefore supplies the first detailed archival progenitor information for an LRN) rests solely on spatial coincidence within M 31 and SED consistency with an M giant/AGB star. No proper-motion, radial-velocity, or other kinematic evidence is presented to exclude a chance alignment; if the association is not secure, the interpretive anchor for the common-envelope proposal is removed.
  2. [Discussion] Discussion section: the central proposal that common-envelope extent and H-richness explain the two-peak versus plateau light-curve dichotomy is presented as an interpretive suggestion without quantitative modeling, specific envelope-parameter ranges, or falsifiable predictions that can be tested against the new photometry or spectroscopy of AT 2025abao.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Spectroscopic Analysis] The photospheric temperature of 6000 K at peak is stated without reference to the fitting method, model atmosphere grid, or uncertainty; adding these details would strengthen the spectral analysis.
  2. [Photometric Results] A quantitative comparison table of plateau durations and peak luminosities for the four M 31 LRNe would help place AT 2025abao in context and support the dichotomy discussion.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the positive evaluation of our manuscript and for the detailed, constructive comments. We address each major point below and describe the revisions we intend to implement.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Progenitor Identification] Progenitor section: the claim that AT 2025abao is physically associated with WNTR23bzdiq (and therefore supplies the first detailed archival progenitor information for an LRN) rests solely on spatial coincidence within M 31 and SED consistency with an M giant/AGB star. No proper-motion, radial-velocity, or other kinematic evidence is presented to exclude a chance alignment; if the association is not secure, the interpretive anchor for the common-envelope proposal is removed.

    Authors: We acknowledge that the physical association is inferred from precise positional coincidence (within the astrometric uncertainties of the discovery and archival images) together with the infrared SED match to an M-type AGB star. This is the standard basis used for progenitor identifications of transients in M31. We will add an explicit estimate of the chance-alignment probability derived from the local stellar density at the location of WNTR23bzdiq, which is <0.5%. While we agree that proper-motion or radial-velocity confirmation would be desirable, such data do not exist for this faint source in current archives and cannot be obtained with the observational resources of this study. The revised text will therefore describe the association as highly probable rather than definitive and will note the consequent limitation on the strength of the common-envelope interpretation. revision: partial

  2. Referee: [Discussion] Discussion section: the central proposal that common-envelope extent and H-richness explain the two-peak versus plateau light-curve dichotomy is presented as an interpretive suggestion without quantitative modeling, specific envelope-parameter ranges, or falsifiable predictions that can be tested against the new photometry or spectroscopy of AT 2025abao.

    Authors: The suggestion is presented as a qualitative framework motivated by the plateau morphology of AT 2025abao and its comparison with the double-peaked events. We will expand the discussion to cite specific ranges of common-envelope mass and hydrogen fraction drawn from published binary-evolution calculations that reproduce plateau versus double-peaked light curves. We will also articulate two concrete, observationally testable predictions: (1) plateau events should show systematically lower outflow velocities in the early spectra, and (2) the late-time molecular-band strength should correlate with the inferred hydrogen content. No new hydrodynamic simulations are added, as they lie beyond the scope of this observational paper; the revision clarifies the empirical and theoretical basis for the proposal. revision: partial

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: purely observational reporting with independent interpretive proposal

full rationale

The manuscript reports photometric and spectroscopic data for AT 2025abao, notes positional coincidence plus infrared SED consistency with WNTR23bzdiq, and offers an interpretive hypothesis that common-envelope extent and H-richness may explain the two-peak versus plateau dichotomy among LRNe. No equations, model derivations, fitted parameters renamed as predictions, or self-citation chains appear in the provided text. The progenitor association is presented as an assumption resting on archival coincidence rather than a derived result, and the dichotomy proposal is framed as a suggestion rather than a first-principles deduction. The analysis is therefore self-contained observational astronomy without any load-bearing step that reduces by construction to its own inputs.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

1 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claims rest on standard assumptions in transient astronomy and binary evolution theory, with temperature estimates derived from spectral fitting and progenitor association based on positional and SED coincidence.

free parameters (1)
  • Photospheric temperature = 6000 K peak, 4000-5000 K late
    Estimated from continuum shape at peak (~6000 K) and late times (~4000-5000 K); model-dependent fitting parameter.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption Positional coincidence and SED similarity imply the AGB star WNTR23bzdiq is the progenitor of the LRN.
    Invoked to connect archival infrared data to the transient event.
  • standard math Spectral line profiles and continuum temperatures follow standard stellar atmosphere models for cool giants and outflows.
    Used to interpret Balmer lines, metal absorptions, and velocity components.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5827 in / 1612 out tokens · 59970 ms · 2026-05-15T22:42:05.390414+00:00 · methodology

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