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arxiv: 2604.08842 · v1 · submitted 2026-04-10 · 🌌 astro-ph.SR

Validating a Non-conventional Method for Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Investigating the Evolution of a CME Substructures Using Solar Orbiter and Wind Observations

Anjali Agarwal , Wageesh Mishra , Mathew J. Owens , Tanja Amerstorfer This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-10 18:12 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🌌 astro-ph.SR
keywords CME expansionCAAP methodSolar OrbiterWind spacecraftmagnetic cloudspace weatherCME substructuresin situ observations
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The pith

The CAAP method gives reliable instantaneous expansion speeds for CMEs from single-spacecraft data, as confirmed by aligned Solar Orbiter and Wind observations.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

This paper validates a method called CAAP for estimating how fast a coronal mass ejection is expanding at any moment, using only measurements from one location. The validation comes from a rare alignment where two spacecraft observed the same CME at different positions, allowing a direct check of the expansion speed. The authors also track how the shock, sheath, and magnetic cloud parts of the CME change as it travels outward. This matters because most observations of CMEs come from single points, and accurate expansion speeds help predict their arrival and impact at Earth. The results show the method works well and highlight that CME internal structures evolve in complex ways during propagation.

Core claim

The paper establishes that the Constant Acceleration Accounted Perspective (CAAP) method produces instantaneous expansion speed estimates that match direct measurements from radially aligned spacecraft observations of a magnetic cloud. In the 3-5 November 2021 event, Solar Orbiter at the trailing edge and Wind at the center provided simultaneous data, confirming the CAAP estimates at both locations. The study also documents the temporal evolution of CME substructures, noting an increase in magnetic flux, strengthening of the shock, and near-constant sheath thickness between the two spacecraft.

What carries the argument

The Constant Acceleration Accounted Perspective (CAAP) method, which accounts for constant acceleration to derive instantaneous expansion speed from single-point in situ observations of CMEs.

If this is right

  • CAAP estimates can be applied to historical single-spacecraft data sets to study CME expansion over time.
  • The observed discrepancy in magnetic flux suggests that flux conservation assumptions in CME models may need revision.
  • CME substructures like shock and sheath can change significantly during propagation due to interactions with ambient solar wind.
  • Space weather forecasting can incorporate CAAP-derived expansion speeds for better arrival time predictions.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Applying CAAP to more events could reveal if expansion behavior is consistent across different CME types.
  • The noted MC axis discrepancy between MVA and visual inspection points to limitations in current magnetic field analysis techniques for inclined structures.
  • Future multi-spacecraft missions could routinely use such alignments to further test and refine non-conventional expansion methods.
  • Accounting for temporal evolution of substructures may improve predictions of geomagnetic impacts beyond simple speed estimates.

Load-bearing premise

The two spacecraft are sampling equivalent parts of the same CME without significant azimuthal or latitudinal variations that would affect the expansion speed comparison.

What would settle it

A mismatch between CAAP-derived and directly measured expansion speeds in another radially aligned multi-spacecraft CME observation would falsify the method's reliability.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2604.08842 by Anjali Agarwal, Mathew J. Owens, Tanja Amerstorfer, Wageesh Mishra.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: The figure depicts the simultaneous observation of the different substructures, center and TE, by Wind and SolO, respectively. The blue, green, and maroon represent the MC substructures LE, center, and TE. The yellow circle represents the Sun. The red and ma￾genta circle shows the radial location of the SolO and Wind, respectively, from the Sun in the IP medium. idation involves finding the time-dependent … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: The top-to-bottom panels depict the variations in the total magnetic field, the com￾ponents of the magnetic field vector in the RTN coordinate system, latitude and longitude of the total magnetic field vector, proton speed, proton density, proton temperature, and plasma beta, respectively, at SolO and Wind in the left and right columns, respectively. Transparent fill areas with red and yellow represent the… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: The top-to-bottom panels depict the magnetic field and plasma parameters, which are primarily used to identify the MC region at both spacecraft. The schematic overlays the MC intervals at SolO and Wind in red and blue shaded regions, respectively. The red and blue dashed lines represent the arrival of the center at SolO and Wind, respectively. regions, respectively. We notice that the depicted magnetic fie… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: The schematic depicts the evolution of an expanding MC during its passage over the in situ spacecraft. The magenta circles represent the geometry of an MC in the plane of an in situ spacecraft. The blue, green, and maroon vertical lines denote the LE, size center, and TE of the MC, respectively. In the schematic, the in situ spacecraft is positioned at 1 AU and marked with a filled circle on the horizontal… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: The schematic depicts the workflow of the CAAP method for estimating the in￾stantaneous expansion speed (Vinst exp) of a CME using the constant acceleration and measured propagation speeds of its substructures. The symbols L, C, and T denote the CME substructures LE, center, and TE, respectively. –13– [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Hodogram representation between B ∗ x, B ∗ y , and B ∗ z at SolO and Wind in the top and bottom panels, respectively. The measured magnetic field vectors in the direction of max￾imum, intermediate, and minimum variances are B ∗ x, B ∗ y , and B ∗ z . The red dot represents the starting point of the MC. (ei and −ei) eigenvectors as valid directions of variances. Initially, the hodogram rep￾resentation of B∗… view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We present a validation of our recently proposed non-conventional method, Constant Acceleration Accounted Perspective (CAAP), for estimating the instantaneous expansion speed of coronal mass ejection (CMEs), even when only single-point in situ observations are available. This validation is enabled by the radial alignment of SolO and Wind spacecraft (0.13 AU radial and 2.3 deg angular separation), providing simultaneous observations of the center (at Wind) and trailing edge (at SolO) of a CME associated magnetic cloud (MC) during 3-5 November 2021, allowing a direct measurement of its instantaneous expansion speed. These measurements are compared with CAAP-derived instantaneous expansion speed estimates at both spacecraft. The favorable spacecraft configuration also enables tracking the temporal evolution of CME substructures, including the shock, sheath, and MC. A discrepancy is noted between the low-inclination MC axis estimated from minimum variance analysis (MVA) and the highly inclined ENW-type MC axis suggested by visual inspection of in situ measurements. We also observe an apparent increase in the magnetic flux within the MC from SolO to Wind, indicating a noticeable deviation from magnetic flux conservation. During the CME's propagation from SolO to Wind, the shock becomes unexpectedly stronger at Wind, while the sheath thickness remains nearly the same, likely due to MC acceleration from back compression by a high-speed stream and ambient solar wind variability. Our results demonstrate the applicability of the CAAP method and the importance of accounting for temporal evolution in CME substructures for space weather studies.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript validates the Constant Acceleration Accounted Perspective (CAAP) method for estimating instantaneous CME expansion speeds from single-point in-situ data. It uses the radial alignment of Solar Orbiter and Wind (0.13 AU radial, 2.3° angular separation) during the 3-5 November 2021 event to obtain a direct expansion-speed benchmark by comparing Wind (MC center) and SolO (trailing edge) observations of the same magnetic cloud, then compares these to CAAP-derived values at both locations. The work also tracks evolution of the shock, sheath, and MC substructures, reports a low-inclination MVA axis versus highly inclined ENW-type visual axis, an apparent magnetic-flux increase between spacecraft, and unexpected shock strengthening at Wind.

Significance. If the sampling-equivalence assumption holds, the result would be useful for space-weather applications because single-spacecraft observations are far more common than radial alignments; the CAAP approach would then supply reliable instantaneous expansion speeds without multi-point data. The manuscript correctly credits the rare geometry for enabling a direct test and emphasizes temporal evolution of substructures. However, the noted MVA-visual axis discrepancy and flux increase already signal possible azimuthal or structural mismatch, which would reduce the independence of the benchmark and limit the strength of the validation claim.

major comments (2)
  1. Abstract and validation section: The direct expansion-speed benchmark rests on the premise that Wind samples near the MC axis while SolO samples the trailing edge of the identical structure. With only 2.3° angular separation, the reported low-inclination MVA axis at both locations versus the highly inclined ENW-type structure by eye, and the apparent magnetic-flux increase from SolO to Wind, the radial separation may not map cleanly to radial thickness change; this assumption is load-bearing for the claim that CAAP matches an independent measurement and requires quantitative justification (e.g., via flux-rope fitting or additional positional constraints).
  2. Abstract: The observed increase in magnetic flux between SolO and Wind is presented as a deviation from conservation, yet its magnitude, uncertainty, and possible effect on the MC boundary identification or expansion-speed comparison are not quantified; if the spacecraft are not traversing equivalent flux surfaces, both the direct benchmark and the CAAP comparison lose reliability.
minor comments (1)
  1. Abstract: Error propagation for both the CAAP estimates and the direct velocity/position differencing is not described; data-selection criteria for the event and the precise method used to quantify the axis-orientation discrepancy and flux increase should be added for reproducibility.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for their thorough review and valuable feedback on our manuscript. We have carefully considered the major comments concerning the assumptions underlying our validation of the CAAP method and the quantification of the magnetic flux increase. Below, we provide point-by-point responses and indicate the revisions we will make to address these concerns.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: Abstract and validation section: The direct expansion-speed benchmark rests on the premise that Wind samples near the MC axis while SolO samples the trailing edge of the identical structure. With only 2.3° angular separation, the reported low-inclination MVA axis at both locations versus the highly inclined ENW-type structure by eye, and the apparent magnetic-flux increase from SolO to Wind, the radial separation may not map cleanly to radial thickness change; this assumption is load-bearing for the claim that CAAP matches an independent measurement and requires quantitative justification (e.g., via flux-rope fitting or additional positional constraints).

    Authors: We agree that the validation depends on the spacecraft sampling equivalent parts of the same MC structure. The small angular separation of 2.3 degrees supports the assumption that differences are primarily radial, allowing a direct measure of expansion. The manuscript explicitly discusses the MVA axis discrepancy and the flux increase as noteworthy observations. To provide the requested quantitative justification, we will add results from flux-rope fitting to better determine the spacecraft's position relative to the MC axis and evaluate the mapping of radial separation to thickness change. This will enhance the robustness of our benchmark without changing the main conclusions. revision: yes

  2. Referee: Abstract: The observed increase in magnetic flux between SolO and Wind is presented as a deviation from conservation, yet its magnitude, uncertainty, and possible effect on the MC boundary identification or expansion-speed comparison are not quantified; if the spacecraft are not traversing equivalent flux surfaces, both the direct benchmark and the CAAP comparison lose reliability.

    Authors: The flux increase is presented as an apparent deviation from conservation, which we attribute to possible non-equivalent sampling or evolution. We acknowledge that its magnitude, uncertainty, and implications for boundary identification and speed comparison were not fully quantified in the original submission. In the revised manuscript, we will include specific flux calculations with uncertainties at both locations and analyze their potential impact on the expansion speed estimates and CAAP validation. This will help assess the reliability of the comparisons. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: validation rests on independent two-spacecraft observations.

full rationale

The paper applies the previously proposed CAAP method to single-spacecraft data at each location and compares the resulting expansion-speed estimates against a direct differencing of radial velocities (or positions) obtained from the radially aligned SolO-Wind pair. This comparison is enabled by external in-situ measurements whose acquisition and reduction are independent of the CAAP equations; the paper does not fit any CAAP parameter to the two-spacecraft data nor redefine the direct benchmark in terms of CAAP outputs. Self-citation to the original CAAP derivation exists but is not load-bearing for the validation claim, which stands or falls on the stated assumptions about spacecraft placement within the MC rather than on any internal re-derivation.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on domain assumptions about CME structure and propagation drawn from prior solar physics literature; no new free parameters or invented entities are introduced in the abstract.

axioms (2)
  • domain assumption CME magnetic clouds can be treated as structures with definable center and trailing edge whose expansion follows a constant acceleration profile in the CAAP framework
    Core premise of the method being validated, invoked when comparing single-point estimates to dual-spacecraft measurements.
  • domain assumption Minimum variance analysis and visual inspection reliably determine magnetic cloud axis orientation and boundaries
    Used to identify the MC and note the inclination discrepancy.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5607 in / 1412 out tokens · 36442 ms · 2026-05-10T18:12:41.470435+00:00 · methodology

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Reference graph

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