Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI | Paper Citation Record

Observation c2afdb52-9944-4669-a817-3e1ecc0eb134 · outbound

This paper cites Atypical combinations and scientific impact.Science, 342(6157):468–472, 2013.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Atypical combinations and scientific impact.Science, 342(6157):468–472, 2013

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Observation 1a41bd7b-6cbf-406b-a2d1-6f5ca3aa396a · outbound

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI The structure of scientific revolutions.The Philosophical Review, 73(3):383– 394, 1964

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This paper cites Moore’s law.Electronics Magazine, 38(8):114, 1965.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Moore’s law.Electronics Magazine, 38(8):114, 1965

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Observation ea62e76a-9090-4db2-8d19-79aacf048eec · outbound

This paper cites Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models

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Observation cc392369-17fb-4833-ab68-352c62417f18 · outbound

This paper cites Science of science.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Science of science

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Observation 18958864-e9e3-4064-a9ed-8a1c6fa8d241 · outbound

This paper cites Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time.Nature, 613(7942):138–144, 2023.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time.Nature, 613(7942):138–144, 2023

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Observation 9dec2dd7-fac2-4db2-bdf4-1334dfeed7e5 · outbound

This paper cites The development of technology foresight: A review.Technological forecasting and social change, 77(9):1448–1456, 2010.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI The development of technology foresight: A review.Technological forecasting and social change, 77(9):1448–1456, 2010

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Observation bde476e0-b3e5-45d9-8d08-2edca559de74 · outbound

This paper cites Highly accurate protein structure prediction with alphafold.Nature, 596(7873):583–589, 2021.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Highly accurate protein structure prediction with alphafold.Nature, 596(7873):583–589, 2021

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Observation ed6dc746-38aa-4c18-9eb0-a190684d91e7 · outbound

This paper cites Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with alphafold 3.Nature, 630(8016):493–500, 2024.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Accurate structure prediction of biomolecular interactions with alphafold 3.Nature, 630(8016):493–500, 2024

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Observation 095f2dee-d41c-47e7-9bf2-9c7f63d53726 · outbound

This paper cites AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery

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Observation f94402de-2162-40b8-9c6c-c20a22ba6f99 · outbound

This paper cites Scaling deep learning for materials discovery.Nature, 624(7990):80–85, 2023.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Scaling deep learning for materials discovery.Nature, 624(7990):80–85, 2023

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Observation ab97b7ae-6a3e-4a74-bea7-899e5ecd7122 · outbound

This paper cites The virtual lab of ai agents designs new sars-cov-2 nanobodies.Nature, 646(8085):716–723, 2025.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI The virtual lab of ai agents designs new sars-cov-2 nanobodies.Nature, 646(8085):716–723, 2025

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Observation 3b7032b7-19d6-4a03-8f4c-1b33edafb152 · outbound

This paper cites Accelerating scientific discovery with co-scientist.Nature, 2026.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Accelerating scientific discovery with co-scientist.Nature, 2026

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Observation f4cd2844-443d-4820-86d1-0b8aa975ffb0 · outbound

This paper cites Szostkiewicz, Dmytro Shved, Gavin J.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Szostkiewicz, Dmytro Shved, Gavin J

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Observation ef6f7a82-abbf-4227-b105-6360e7eb94ba · outbound

This paper cites Learn to explain: Multimodal reasoning via thought chains for science question answering.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Learn to explain: Multimodal reasoning via thought chains for science question answering

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Observation f62d561c-d3d8-4b4f-ba17-9fe698e95988 · outbound

This paper cites Gpqa: A graduate-level google-proof q&a benchmark.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Gpqa: A graduate-level google-proof q&a benchmark

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Observation efa7af0a-1728-4eb4-87da-6aaea5e0f159 · outbound

This paper cites Astabench: Rigorous benchmarking of ai agents with a scientific research suite.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Astabench: Rigorous benchmarking of ai agents with a scientific research suite

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Observation e072fbb6-10a0-4c07-9d2b-62a74a382000 · outbound

This paper cites A benchmark of expert-level academic questions to assess AI capabilities.Nature, 649:1139–1146, 2026.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI A benchmark of expert-level academic questions to assess AI capabilities.Nature, 649:1139–1146, 2026

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Observation 081fb538-cbd9-443c-ae54-cd5e6f21b1ea · outbound

This paper cites PreScience: A Dataset and Benchmark for Scientific Forecasting.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI PreScience: A Dataset and Benchmark for Scientific Forecasting

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Observation 1fab1dbc-fbf1-43ad-84a9-65b0694dce7f · outbound

This paper cites Mmlu-pro: A more robust and challenging multi-task language understanding benchmark.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Mmlu-pro: A more robust and challenging multi-task language understanding benchmark

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Observation dec19423-0ffd-43f5-86b4-38a344bfac0c · outbound

This paper cites Forecastbench: A dynamic benchmark of AI forecasting capabilities.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Forecastbench: A dynamic benchmark of AI forecasting capabilities

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Observation 072fb71f-1a39-485a-b248-f830b7ee8264 · outbound

This paper cites FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction

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Observation 3039f5e2-8d66-45c0-927b-978a805ccb80 · outbound

This paper cites Introducing FOReCAst: The future outcome reasoning and confidence assessment benchmark.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Introducing FOReCAst: The future outcome reasoning and confidence assessment benchmark

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Observation 0f912880-7754-4879-89c9-d64bc62a64eb · outbound

This paper cites Prophet: An inferable future forecasting benchmark with causal intervened likelihood estimation.arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.01509, 2025.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Prophet: An inferable future forecasting benchmark with causal intervened likelihood estimation.arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.01509, 2025

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Observation 11219177-21d5-4887-b9c5-be5225a21935 · outbound

This paper cites ResearchBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Scientific Discovery via Inspiration-Based Task Decomposition.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI ResearchBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Scientific Discovery via Inspiration-Based Task Decomposition

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Observation 616e662e-17b1-4c1d-a7c2-a518a0f46f41 · outbound

This paper cites Matter-of-fact: A benchmark for verifying the feasibility of literature-supported claims in materials science.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Matter-of-fact: A benchmark for verifying the feasibility of literature-supported claims in materials science

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This paper cites Solving 19 inequality proofs with large language models.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Solving 19 inequality proofs with large language models

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Observation f0216190-d32a-4dab-9e75-cf10aa1dfc35 · outbound

This paper cites Let’s verify step by step.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Let’s verify step by step

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Observation f5976fbc-8f7b-466e-bc3a-367aeaacd071 · outbound

This paper cites Walk the talk? measuring the faithfulness of large language model explanations.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Walk the talk? measuring the faithfulness of large language model explanations

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Observation 76666362-a066-4bee-acf5-c0df60f06f3d · outbound

This paper cites Introducing GPT-5.4.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Introducing GPT-5.4

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI GPT-4o System Card

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Introducing claude sonnet 4.5

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI The Llama 3 Herd of Models

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Deepseek-r1 incentivizes reasoning in llms through reinforcement learning.Nature, 645(8081):633–638, 2025

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Measuring massive multitask language understanding

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Protein data bank.Nature New Biol, 233(223):10–1038, 1971

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Exploring the use of ai authors and reviewers at agents4science.Nature Biotechnology, pages 1–4, 2025

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI The AI Scientist-v2: Workshop-Level Automated Scientific Discovery via Agentic Tree Search

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Towards end-to-end automation of ai research.Nature, 651(8107):914–919, 2026

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Towards an AI co-scientist

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Kosmos: An AI Scientist for Autonomous Discovery

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Ai for scientific discovery is a social problem.arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.06580, 2025

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI When will ai exceed human performance? evidence from ai experts.Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 62:729–754, 2018

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI (Interim Report)

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Frontierscience: Evaluating ai’s ability to perform expert-level scientific tasks.arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.21165, 2026

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI FrontierMath: A Benchmark for Evaluating Advanced Mathematical Reasoning in AI

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Observation c0a60e5a-f868-4a7c-8127-e964c2b6e70e · outbound

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Forecasting future world events with neural networks

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Approaching human-level forecasting with language models

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Benchmark self-evolving: A multi-agent framework for dynamic llm evaluation

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Truthtensor: Evaluating llms through human imitation on prediction market under drift and holistic reasoning.arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.13545, 2026

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI LiveBench: A Challenging, Contamination-Limited LLM Benchmark

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Paradigm shifts as portals to threshold concepts and epistemic transfor- mation.Educational Philosophy and Theory, pages 1–12, 2025

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Scientific novelty beyond the experiment.Microbial Biotechnology, 16(6):1131–1173, 2023

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Observation 8217572e-4928-43dd-8c25-392d106622d0 · outbound

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Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Nature of metal-support interaction for metal catalysts on oxide supports.Science, 386(6724):915–920, 2024

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Observation ffdf156a-4cc8-4c14-b23b-78fa25ca4a7f · outbound

This paper cites Functional gradients facilitate tactile sensing in elephant whiskers.Science, 391(6786):712–718, 2026.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Functional gradients facilitate tactile sensing in elephant whiskers.Science, 391(6786):712–718, 2026

Reference 58

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.368648Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6e30323c-98eb-409a-b236-a099e95ed8bd · outbound

This paper cites Electromagnetic interference shielding using metal and mxene thin films.Nature, pages 1–8, 2025.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Electromagnetic interference shielding using metal and mxene thin films.Nature, pages 1–8, 2025

Reference 59

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.371142Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 53598241-520d-4409-b35b-8552a3df938a · outbound

This paper cites Rpg: A repository planning graph for unified and scalable codebase generation.arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.16198, 2025.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Rpg: A repository planning graph for unified and scalable codebase generation.arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.16198, 2025

Reference 60

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.374163Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation e9b75c43-217f-470c-b1e8-1b13beadc3fc · outbound

This paper cites A smart mask for exhaled breath condensate harvesting and analysis.Science, 385(6712):954–961, 2024.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI A smart mask for exhaled breath condensate harvesting and analysis.Science, 385(6712):954–961, 2024

Reference 61

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.377128Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 634ff5b3-c391-49ea-bffc-08eab9da8099 · outbound

This paper cites Comprehensive echocardiogram evaluation with view primed vision language ai.Nature, 650(8103):970–977, 2026.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Comprehensive echocardiogram evaluation with view primed vision language ai.Nature, 650(8103):970–977, 2026

Reference 62

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.379456Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f65bdcce-867c-48d6-82d5-7821ecc060c6 · outbound

This paper cites Top 10 AI Papers of the Week.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Top 10 AI Papers of the Week

Reference 63

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.381952Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation d8196c2f-179e-429a-92c9-26986ab3ef37 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

Reference 64

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.386278Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 84aff2d1-ef50-4bd5-85d4-143984ecb7bd · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

Reference 65

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.388791Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b1c09010-b5d2-446b-96fc-cfaac393a67c · outbound

This paper cites verdict":.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI verdict":

Reference 66

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.391375Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7224587a-65c2-4b8d-9487-d1f1b3497eb8 · outbound

This paper cites ‘json code block. Write 1-2 sentences of reasoning with inline citations ( [title](url)) before the block. {.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI ‘json code block. Write 1-2 sentences of reasoning with inline citations ( [title](url)) before the block. {

Reference 67

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.394125Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7a7b78ab-2119-4d98-8c3d-9612c94886b1 · outbound

This paper cites Do NOT change which benchmark or dataset is referenced.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Do NOT change which benchmark or dataset is referenced

Reference 68

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.397104Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8596b3aa-4bef-4e13-99db-a91d7acc72bb · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

Reference 69

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.399631Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fb6f5fcf-3dd7-49cb-b75d-7b3d11d9abe4 · outbound

This paper cites Make the increase a clear shift so there is no ambiguity, but still physically plausible.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Make the increase a clear shift so there is no ambiguity, but still physically plausible

Reference 70

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.402131Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 76a3016c-99e7-4256-9999-8d1d5f94b5ae · outbound

This paper cites Make this constraint significant enough that it’s noticeably harder to satisfy than the original.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Make this constraint significant enough that it’s noticeably harder to satisfy than the original

Reference 71

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.404818Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5d38b8e6-358d-4c10-94bb-24e9b6dc0a3f · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

Reference 72

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.407528Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 41f10337-db3b-4d48-a3f7-95578ec7b3b1 · outbound

This paper cites {problem_statement}.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI {problem_statement}

Reference 73

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.409923Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation d315d6b0-5ff8-4b93-a6d1-9fdf7ccddf60 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

Reference 74

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.412723Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f9580f5c-9f4e-439d-9d7c-af60ab76564e · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Unresolved cited work

Reference 75

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.415267Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a95d6376-82b2-463e-ae18-5e75a19cc798 · outbound

This paper cites Return JSON with key ‘prompt’.

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI Return JSON with key ‘prompt’

Reference 76

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T13:31:46.418313Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Coverage vector

Reference resolution

Outbound references

Pith citing papers