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REVIEW 2 major objections 1 minor 15 references

The Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray models for a mix of administrative and random censoring

T0 review · 2 major / 1 minor · reviewed 2026-06-26 · grok-4.3

Pith's one-line read When administrative censoring times are known for all subjects, Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray models yield consistent estimates under mixed censoring by risk-set modification plus targeted inverse-probability weighting.

desk verdict The paper shows how to blend risk-set adjustment and IPCW for Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray under mixed censoring, provided administrative times are known for every subject. read the letter →

arxiv 2606.19892 v1 pith:JKOIR5KE submitted 2026-06-18 stat.ME

classification stat.ME
keywords recurrenteventscompetingrisksadministrativecensoringrandomGhosh-LinmodelFine-GrayIPCWmarginalmodels
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

The paper examines estimation for two marginal models commonly used in biomedical data: the Ghosh-Lin model for recurrent events ending in a terminal event and the Fine-Gray model for competing risks. It shows that the usual difficulty of random censoring can be isolated when administrative censoring times are recorded exactly for every individual. In that case the risk set is adjusted directly for the administrative part while inverse-probability-of-censoring weights are applied only to the random part, without needing a joint model for the combined censoring mechanism. Readers in registry studies or trials would care because this mixed censoring pattern is routine yet previously required stronger parametric assumptions on the entire censoring process.

What carries the argument

The hybrid adjustment that performs direct risk-set modification for known administrative censoring times while restricting inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting to the random-censoring component alone.

What would settle it

A simulation or real dataset in which the proposed estimators remain inconsistent after the administrative times are correctly inserted into the risk sets would falsify the claim.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

For the Ghosh-Lin model for recurrent events with terminal events and the Fine-Gray model for competing events, when both administrative and random censoring are present and administrative censoring times are known for all subjects, correct estimation is obtained by modifying the risk-set for administrative censoring and using IPCW adjustments only for random censoring, relying on a minimum of modeling assumptions.

Load-bearing premise

Administrative censoring times are known exactly for every subject.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • Consistent parameter estimates become available for the Ghosh-Lin recurrent-event model under mixed censoring.
  • Consistent parameter estimates become available for the Fine-Gray competing-risks model under the same mixed censoring.
  • A full parametric model for the combined censoring distribution is no longer required.
  • The approach applies directly to large registry data where administrative end-of-study dates are recorded for the entire cohort.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same separation of censoring types may apply to other marginal survival models that currently rely on full IPCW.
  • In clinical-trial settings the method could be implemented by simply flagging the known administrative date for each participant and weighting only the observed random losses.
  • Empirical checks could compare the hybrid estimator against naive full-IPCW estimators when the proportion of random censoring varies.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

2 major / 1 minor

Summary. The manuscript addresses estimation in the Ghosh-Lin recurrent-events model (with terminal event) and the Fine-Gray competing-risks model when data are subject to a mixture of administrative censoring (known exactly for every subject) and random censoring. It proposes combining direct risk-set modification for the administrative component with inverse-probability-of-censoring weighting (IPCW) for the random component, claiming that this hybrid adjustment yields consistent estimators under minimal modeling assumptions.

Significance. If the proposed hybrid estimators are consistent, the work would supply a practical, low-assumption route for registry or trial data in which administrative follow-up times are recorded for the entire cohort while a subset of subjects are lost to random censoring. This would be directly useful in biostatistical practice and would extend the existing IPCW and risk-set literatures without requiring a joint model for the two censoring mechanisms.

major comments (2)
  1. [Abstract] Abstract and introduction: the central claim that the combined estimator is consistent rests on the assertion that administrative censoring times are known exactly for every subject, including those whose observed time is determined by random censoring. The manuscript does not specify how this information is obtained or recorded when random censoring occurs first, nor does it demonstrate that the risk-set modification remains valid under the data-generating process in which C_a,i is unobserved for subjects with C_r,i < C_a,i.
  2. [Methods] Estimating-equation section (presumably §3 or §4): the paper must show explicitly how the IPCW weights and the modified risk sets are combined inside the Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray estimating equations. Without the explicit form of the hybrid estimating function and a consistency argument (or at least a simulation study under the mixed-censoring regime), it is impossible to confirm that the two adjustments do not interfere.
minor comments (1)
  1. [Abstract] Notation for the two censoring times (C_a and C_r) should be introduced once and used consistently; the abstract uses “administrative censoring time” without a symbol.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

2 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments. We address each major comment below and will revise the manuscript accordingly to improve clarity.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [Abstract] Abstract and introduction: the central claim that the combined estimator is consistent rests on the assertion that administrative censoring times are known exactly for every subject, including those whose observed time is determined by random censoring. The manuscript does not specify how this information is obtained or recorded when random censoring occurs first, nor does it demonstrate that the risk-set modification remains valid under the data-generating process in which C_a,i is unobserved for subjects with C_r,i < C_a,i.

    Authors: In the registry and trial settings considered, the administrative censoring time C_a,i is the fixed study end date, which is known and recorded for every subject independently of the random censoring time. The observed data structure includes this known C_a,i for all i, with the observed time being the minimum of the event time, random censoring, and C_a,i. The risk-set modification therefore uses the known C_a,i values and remains valid under this data-generating process; we do not consider the case where C_a,i is unobserved. We will revise the abstract and introduction to explicitly describe this data structure and recording practice. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Methods] Estimating-equation section (presumably §3 or §4): the paper must show explicitly how the IPCW weights and the modified risk sets are combined inside the Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray estimating equations. Without the explicit form of the hybrid estimating function and a consistency argument (or at least a simulation study under the mixed-censoring regime), it is impossible to confirm that the two adjustments do not interfere.

    Authors: We agree that the explicit combination of the two adjustments should be presented more clearly. The hybrid estimating equations are obtained by inserting the administratively modified risk-set indicators into the standard Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray estimating functions and then weighting the contributions by the IPCW terms for random censoring. We will add the precise mathematical form of these hybrid estimating functions, a brief consistency outline under independent censoring, and simulation results under the mixed-censoring regime to the methods section. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 0.0 of 10

No significant circularity; estimators constructed from standard IPCW and risk-set rules

full rationale

The paper derives combined estimators for Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray models under mixed administrative and random censoring by direct modification of risk sets (when admin times are known for all) plus IPCW weighting for the random component. No step reduces a claimed prediction or uniqueness result to a parameter fitted from the target data itself, nor does any load-bearing premise rest on a self-citation chain that is unverified or self-referential. The central construction is an explicit combination of two existing adjustment techniques under an explicit observability assumption, remaining self-contained against external benchmarks.

Assumptions & free parameters 0 free parameters · 0 assumptions · 0 invented entities

Abstract-only review supplies no details on free parameters, axioms, or invented entities.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of The Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray models for a mix of administrative and random censoring." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/JKOIR5KE

@misc{pith2026260619892,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: The Ghosh-Lin and Fine-Gray models for a mix of administrative and random censoring},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/JKOIR5KE}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2606.19892}
}
read the original abstract

Recurrent events or competing risks regression models are often applied in the bio-medical setting and both can be considered as marginal models. In presence of right-censoring, such models need to be adjusted to give consistent estimators. When censoring is administrative, marginal regression models are particularly easy to estimate. However, when censoring is instead acting randomly, inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) adjustments are typically considered to obtain parameter estimates. This technique relies on a censoring-weights adjustment via a correct censoring model, but for administrative censoring the adjustment is done correctly simply by modifying the risk-set. In practice for large central registries or some clinical trials, the administrative censoring time will be known for all subjects, but there will typically also be a proportion of subjects that are censored at random. In this work, we consider two frequently used regression approaches, the Ghosh-Lin model for recurrent events with terminal events and the Fine-Gray model for competing events. For these two settings, when both administrative and random censoring are present, we demonstrate how to obtain correct estimation by dealing with the combination of the two different types of censoring relying on a minimum of modeling assumptions.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2606.19892 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Illustration of observation scheme for recurrent events setting with adminis [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p034_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Marginal mean for recurrent events and survival function. Moderate level of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p035_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Cumulative incidences for the event of interest based on the Fine-Gray model [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p036_3.png] view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (2 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Baseline mean functions for the Ghosh-Lin model based on different ways of [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p037_4.png]
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Baseline subdistribution cumulative hazards for the Fine-Gray model based [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p038_5.png]

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Reference graph

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Reviewed June 26, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.