Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment

As of 7 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 20 of 20 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2607.26981.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2607.26981 v1

Coverage vector

measured 20 of 20 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.586280Z

measured 20 of 20 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-07T06:34:17.273281+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

20 of 20 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved19
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier1
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation f635c5bc-1313-4b99-96f0-f1ce65d60c61 · outbound

This paper cites Pay attention to all details provided, including any statistical information, contextual clues, and qualifying statements.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Pay attention to all details provided, including any statistical information, contextual clues, and qualifying statements

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.480845Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 54ff2fa4-09e3-4f20-af39-8cf637ae6bad · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.508402Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 85ce5be9-4601-41b9-8a20-898bfbbfe787 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.520443Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation e1b69c39-ced0-4433-a666-0d5b26b4e373 · outbound

This paper cites Do not introduce external assumptions.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Do not introduce external assumptions

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.525451Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 727f152c-9bef-4262-983f-4f7f7a391fb9 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.530218Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 207b7588-4f29-4d1d-974d-fd3eed0cf8c5 · outbound

This paper cites probability.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment probability

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.535210Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation daa2444f-aeee-4994-9228-2b3c4e8b16a5 · outbound

This paper cites Scenarios that admit a near-certain or near-impossible answer are excluded.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Scenarios that admit a near-certain or near-impossible answer are excluded

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.541250Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2e64a275-61e6-4aac-b7c8-3e8b92a7ab05 · outbound

This paper cites The model must rely on judgment, not arithmetic.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment The model must rely on judgment, not arithmetic

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.545985Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ae091159-8289-4872-b35e-927dfb8ede55 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.550561Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 216446ed-655e-4c66-9b6b-f20645d56b78 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 13

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.555492Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 698b7042-5f81-446d-a53d-1b7cc50c87b2 · outbound

This paper cites passes” / “does not pass.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment passes” / “does not pass

Reference 14

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.560712Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ad768c6e-200e-4e0a-86ed-d35848bd5480 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.565040Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 1af5c09e-aba3-4046-bba4-f77e49c15303 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.569394Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation da164069-6458-44a1-8a17-9dd7f2028f4c · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.573454Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6ceba87c-a185-4d4d-9ef9-e56ca8306663 · outbound

This paper cites 13 Table 5: Complete inverted pair examples showing exact input format.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment 13 Table 5: Complete inverted pair examples showing exact input format

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.577449Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation d61daa6c-06e1-49d1-a339-0a5484bd0c4e · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Unresolved cited work

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.582214Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 15358620-fd1f-4369-8361-48065f87188f · outbound

This paper cites A person is in this situation.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment A person is in this situation

Reference 20

Resolution: malformed identifier; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.586280Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 92553389-a679-450d-84c1-c57087215f84 · outbound

This paper cites Whose Opinions Do Language Models Reflect?.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Whose Opinions Do Language Models Reflect?

Reference 2023

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.256009Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 0d10ef32-6a42-415c-a5d1-d850169b86e7 · outbound

This paper cites OpenAI GPT-5 System Card.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment OpenAI GPT-5 System Card

Reference 2024

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.338603Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f80ec3eb-820f-43ed-b6eb-1cee4658d3ce · outbound

This paper cites Miao Xiong, Zhiyuan Hu, Xinyang Lu, YIFEI LI, Jie Fu, Junxian He, and Bryan Hooi.

OptimismBench: Forecasting Bias and the Alignment Effect in Language Model Judgment Miao Xiong, Zhiyuan Hu, Xinyang Lu, YIFEI LI, Jie Fu, Junxian He, and Bryan Hooi

Reference 2025

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-07-30T15:06:26.425240Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.