Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.
Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.997682Z
Paper Citation Record · LEDGER
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament
As of 23 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 32 of 32 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2608.04008.
A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.
Coverage vector
One-hop event checks from named stored sources.
Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00
Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.
Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links
A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.
Source: cited_works
Reference resolution
32 of 32 outbound references displayed
- verified exact0
- verified fuzzy15
- unresolved17
- parse uncertain0
- malformed identifier0
- metadata mismatch0
External citation measurements
No source-named external measurement is stored.
Outbound references
Observation 443c0308-b4ad-477c-be95-996ec07f0d19 · outbound
This paper cites Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (Datasets and Benchmarks Track) , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (Datasets and Benchmarks Track) , year =
Reference 1
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.266306Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 26548c89-1229-4ede-a967-0dac90ba2094 · outbound
This paper cites , booktitle =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament , booktitle =
Reference 2
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.257595Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 30bc8322-cb4b-4d68-bbbc-a87153564c8d · outbound
This paper cites Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models
Reference 3
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.921263Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 50d8b7b7-9305-47d0-99c9-0ec15f112ea3 · outbound
This paper cites Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament
Reference 4
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.924429Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation e158d92a-ebe0-40bb-aa59-9f60ccafa961 · outbound
This paper cites and Tetlock, Philip E.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament and Tetlock, Philip E
Reference 5
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.249514Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 1178a9a7-8d87-42e1-a549-656c8f21cdee · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 6
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.930264Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 587c7ba0-9695-4af7-9825-35c0be2aa210 · outbound
This paper cites Psychological Science , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Psychological Science , volume =
Reference 7
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.235972Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation d2b23eaa-a4eb-4556-a5dd-f9ecaa198235 · outbound
This paper cites Monthly Weather Review , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Monthly Weather Review , volume =
Reference 8
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.227527Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation b6afbb70-66ab-4d56-801c-4a2220e7910f · outbound
This paper cites Journal of the American Statistical Association , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Journal of the American Statistical Association , volume =
Reference 9
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.938335Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation fc5ab870-5aa0-46ed-b7a9-7182aa6e5106 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 10
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.213452Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 109cc693-3794-4a98-a30d-40274ead4208 · outbound
This paper cites Statistica Neerlandica , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Statistica Neerlandica , volume =
Reference 11
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.205005Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation de3b651a-c2c8-4ea7-85e4-eec3af00fa92 · outbound
This paper cites Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C , volume =
Reference 12
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.196410Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation bc0b09aa-e887-45c4-a23a-c5b1c04054cb · outbound
This paper cites Odds-Setters as Forecasters: The Case of.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Odds-Setters as Forecasters: The Case of
Reference 13
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.187706Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 3e06b73a-015d-41d4-b238-f84654bf2f5c · outbound
This paper cites and Fenton, Norman E.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament and Fenton, Norman E
Reference 14
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.178496Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 2403ba58-5bfb-4119-97b9-400936cc95e8 · outbound
This paper cites The Journal of Finance , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament The Journal of Finance , volume =
Reference 15
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.170335Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 7fd43bab-591b-41c9-8838-2f72d79e8cf0 · outbound
This paper cites International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) , year =
Reference 16
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.956904Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 8c860fbc-c4f3-48cf-b2cf-debf7ab3120b · outbound
This paper cites and Li, Tianle and Li, Dacheng and Zhu, Banghua and Zhang, Hao and Jordan, Michael I.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament and Li, Tianle and Li, Dacheng and Zhu, Banghua and Zhang, Hao and Jordan, Michael I
Reference 17
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.155089Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation e603bb88-4cc1-4122-98f0-ef7522c39dec · outbound
This paper cites Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP , year =
Reference 18
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.146423Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 0bdac201-f78a-4f5c-b15c-8f8eec4e4e04 · outbound
This paper cites Time Travel in.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Time Travel in
Reference 19
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.137645Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 89af1cd5-3563-492c-ac5b-9199d9aa02bf · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 20
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.128690Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation b9d6914f-4d76-45f1-b7a3-126fecf10fa9 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 21
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.120533Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 83728fd9-8fe1-4b34-8a28-6a419ab3e766 · outbound
This paper cites International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) , year =
Reference 22
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.971955Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation e8efcaa8-b7c8-4a7f-b26c-01682749086d · outbound
This paper cites Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) , year =
Reference 23
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.106545Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation bca1fa59-7ee7-44bc-b9de-ffb22652a66b · outbound
This paper cites Science , volume =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Science , volume =
Reference 24
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.976756Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 55e0d04a-a4e4-48a0-9d4a-ec905529cb7c · outbound
This paper cites ACM Symposium on User Interface Software and Technology (UIST) , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament ACM Symposium on User Interface Software and Technology (UIST) , year =
Reference 25
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.979334Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 1f90f138-5b60-4ddf-a3ef-0f3fd09080fe · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 26
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.086405Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 0555daef-ca4d-44f3-8602-eb7763ab4c22 · outbound
This paper cites , journal =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament , journal =
Reference 27
- Resolution
- verified fuzzy
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.077847Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation e1196c00-3de3-4ee4-af5c-d982e3c18149 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 28
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.068484Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation 6360afd1-7777-4c46-9cf9-d480caf6ad68 · outbound
This paper cites and Yang, John and Wettig, Alexander and Yao, Shunyu and Pei, Kexin and Press, Ofir and Narasimhan, Karthik , booktitle =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament and Yang, John and Wettig, Alexander and Yao, Shunyu and Pei, Kexin and Press, Ofir and Narasimhan, Karthik , booktitle =
Reference 29
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.989788Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 382f25f9-cf82-4ae8-b299-84a15b98d59b · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 30
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.992305Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Observation 3d997a2a-fe05-4530-a63f-1583a2e0c3a0 · outbound
This paper cites an unresolved cited work.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament Unresolved cited work
Reference 31
- Resolution
- unresolved
- raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:50.049085Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-23T06:30:58.430688+00:00.
Observation c678ed08-dfa5-46b3-b378-98b3a2a1242a · outbound
This paper cites International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) , year =.
WorldCup Arena: Prospective, Leakage-Free Evaluation of Frontier LLMs on a Live Tournament International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR) , year =
Reference 32
- Resolution
- unresolved
- no resolver link, observed 2026-08-05T04:16:49.997682Z
Source-reported events for the cited work
Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.
Pith citing papers
No inbound Pith citation observations are available.