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arxiv: 2605.22299 · v1 · pith:4L7SACM2new · submitted 2026-05-21 · 🧮 math.DS · nlin.CD

Data-Driven Reduced Modeling of Delayed Dynamical Systems via Spectral Submanifolds

Pith reviewed 2026-05-22 02:31 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification 🧮 math.DS nlin.CD
keywords spectral submanifoldsdelay differential equationsdata-driven modelingmodel reductionnonlinear dynamicschaotic systemsbifurcationsexperimental data
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The pith

Spectral submanifolds enable data-driven reduction of nonlinear delay differential equations to predictive low-dimensional ODEs without any knowledge of the delays.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper shows that an extension of spectral submanifold theory to delay differential equations supports purely data-driven model reduction for nonlinear systems containing delays. The method produces finite-dimensional, delay-free ODE models directly from observed data and requires no information on the number, size, or functional form of the delays. These reduced models stay accurate for chaotic regimes and can also track bifurcations under parameter variation for both discrete and distributed delays. The same framework applies to experimental time series from a control system that includes feedback delay and quantization. The approach therefore converts infinite-dimensional delayed dynamics into tractable low-dimensional descriptions from data alone.

Core claim

Using the extension of spectral submanifold theory to DDEs, one can obtain purely data-driven, SSM-reduced, delay-free ODE models for nonlinear delayed systems. These models remain predictive even for chaotic dynamics and do not require any information about the form of the DDE or the delays it contains. The method also enables parametric SSM-reduction to capture bifurcations and extends to non-autonomous systems with periodic delays, as shown on experimental data.

What carries the argument

Spectral submanifolds of the delayed system, reconstructed from finite data to serve as the invariant manifold carrying the reduced dynamics.

If this is right

  • Low-dimensional ODE models accurately reproduce chaotic dynamics of the original delayed system.
  • Parametric reductions capture bifurcations in systems with discrete or distributed delays.
  • Data-driven SSM reduction applies to experimental data from control systems with feedback delay and quantization.
  • The theoretical results extend to non-autonomous systems with periodic delays.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • The same data-driven procedure could simplify controller design for systems whose delay values are unknown or time-varying.
  • Reduced models obtained this way might serve as fast surrogates inside real-time optimization loops that currently cannot handle infinite-dimensional DDEs.
  • The reconstruction step could be tested on other memory-dependent systems such as integro-differential equations to check the breadth of the approach.

Load-bearing premise

The spectral submanifolds of the delayed system can be reliably reconstructed from finite noisy data without prior knowledge of the delay structure or the underlying vector field.

What would settle it

A direct comparison in which the data-driven SSM-reduced ODE fails to reproduce the long-term attractor or a known bifurcation point of the original delayed system under the same initial conditions and parameters.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2605.22299 by George Haller, Gergely Buza, Giacomo Abbasciano.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Eigenvalues of the linearization of the full system (7) at the fixed point at the origin (black [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p012_1.png] view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: (a): Comparison between a full-system trajectory (black) of system (7) and the SSM-reduced [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p013_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: (a): Comparison between a trajectory of system (7) and the corresponding equation-driven [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p014_3.png] view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Comparison between true dominant eigenvalues of the data-driven 2D SSM-reduced dynamics [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_4.png] view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Comparison between two test trajectories of the full system (7) (black) and their data-driven [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_5.png] view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Left: Comparison between a full system (7) test trajectory (black) together with its prediction [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p016_6.png] view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Correlation dimension estimation and spectrum validation for the Mackey–Glass system (11). [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p017_7.png] view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Short-time prediction performance of the SSM- reduced model of system (11). Left: training [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_8.png] view at source ↗
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Analysis of the chaotic attractor of system (11) and its SSM-reduced model. Left: probability [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p018_9.png] view at source ↗
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: 3D projection of the delay embedding space showing convergence of the test trajectory to the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p019_10.png] view at source ↗
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Left: Comparison between eigenvalues of the data-driven reduced dynamics (green) and those [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_11.png] view at source ↗
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Data-driven SSM reduction for system (12). Left: 3D projection of the delay embedding [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p020_12.png] view at source ↗
Figure 13
Figure 13. Figure 13: Left: Correlation dimension estimation for the attractor of system (13) from data in the [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p021_13.png] view at source ↗
Figure 14
Figure 14. Figure 14: Left: Training and test trajectories for the SSM-reduction of system (13) in the observable [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_14.png] view at source ↗
Figure 15
Figure 15. Figure 15: Analysis of the attractor of system (13). Left: Probability density functions of the reduced [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p022_15.png] view at source ↗
Figure 16
Figure 16. Figure 16: 3D projection of the delay embedding space showing the chaotic attractor of system (13) and [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p023_16.png] view at source ↗
Figure 17
Figure 17. Figure 17: For system (14), 3D projections of the delay embedding space showing the learned SSM (semi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p025_17.png] view at source ↗
Figure 18
Figure 18. Figure 18: Predicted and verified portraits of the parametric SSM-reduced dynamics of system (15) at [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p027_18.png] view at source ↗
Figure 19
Figure 19. Figure 19: Illustration of the codimension one Poincar´e section viewed in the delay embedding space [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p028_19.png] view at source ↗
Figure 20
Figure 20. Figure 20: Validation of the parametric SSM model for system (15) at unseen delay values. The model [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p029_20.png] view at source ↗
Figure 21
Figure 21. Figure 21: Left: experimental rig used to control the Furuta pendulum. Right: schematic of the experi [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p030_21.png] view at source ↗
Figure 22
Figure 22. Figure 22: Illustration of the periodic-delay mechanism induced by the ZOH for a scalar DDE of the form [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p031_22.png] view at source ↗
Figure 23
Figure 23. Figure 23: Left: correlation dimension of the chaotic attractor, yielding a value of approximately 4 [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p032_23.png] view at source ↗
Figure 24
Figure 24. Figure 24: SSM-based model predictions for the Furuta pendulum experiments on previously unseen [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p033_24.png] view at source ↗
Figure 25
Figure 25. Figure 25: Comparison of the manifold coefficients obtained with the two SSM-reduction approaches, [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p044_25.png] view at source ↗
Figure 26
Figure 26. Figure 26: Polynomial 6D ODE SSM-reduced model for the fulll system (11), with coefficients rounded [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p049_26.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

We show how the recent extension of spectral submanifold (SSM) theory to delay differential equations (DDEs) enables data-driven model reduction of nonlinear delay systems. First, using a scalar DDE with a single discrete delay, we compare equation-based and data-driven SSM reductions, to illustrate the need for the latter. We then use the same algorithm to obtain purely data-driven, SSM-reduced, delay-free ODE models for several nonlinear delayed systems. Our approach requires no information about the form of the underlying DDE, or about the number and magnitude of the delays it contains. Our SSM-reduced, low-dimensional models remain predictive even for chaotic dynamics. We also illustrate the use of parametric SSM-reduction to capture bifurcations in systems with both distributed and discrete delays. Finally we extend the theoretical underpinning of delayed SSM-reductions to non-autonomous systems with periodic delays, and apply these results to experimental data from a control system with feedback delay and quantization.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper develops a data-driven approach to reduced-order modeling of nonlinear delay differential equations (DDEs) by extending spectral submanifold (SSM) theory. It first compares equation-based and data-driven SSM reductions on a scalar DDE with a single discrete delay, then applies the same data-driven algorithm to obtain delay-free low-dimensional ODE models for multiple nonlinear delayed systems. The central claims are that the method requires no information on the form of the DDE or the number/magnitude of delays, that the reduced models remain predictive even for chaotic dynamics, that parametric SSM reduction captures bifurcations for both distributed and discrete delays, and that the theory extends to non-autonomous systems with periodic delays, with a final application to experimental control-system data.

Significance. If the central claims are substantiated, the work would provide a practical route to finite-dimensional predictive models for infinite-dimensional delayed systems directly from time series, without explicit delay knowledge. This could impact data-driven modeling in control, fluid dynamics, and biological systems where delays are common. The inclusion of chaotic examples, bifurcation capture, and experimental validation adds to its potential utility, though the absence of quantitative metrics in the presented claims limits immediate assessment of impact.

major comments (3)
  1. [§3] §3 (data-driven algorithm description): The procedure for selecting embedding dimension, lags, or lifted features is not specified in a manner that demonstrates independence from the unknown delay scales; if these choices are tuned to unfold the attractor, the claim of requiring 'no information about the number and magnitude of the delays' is not yet load-bearing.
  2. [§5] §5 (chaotic dynamics examples): The assertion that 'SSM-reduced, low-dimensional models remain predictive even for chaotic dynamics' lacks reported quantitative metrics such as normalized prediction error over multiple Lyapunov times, attractor reconstruction error, or comparison against full DDE integration; without these, the claim cannot be evaluated.
  3. [experimental validation section] Final experimental section: Validation on the control-system data with feedback delay and quantization does not include details on sampling rate relative to delay, noise characteristics, or how the SSM is identified from quantized observations without prior delay knowledge, which is central to the no-prior-information guarantee.
minor comments (2)
  1. Notation for the delay operator and spectral subspaces should be unified between the theoretical extension and the data-driven sections to avoid ambiguity.
  2. Figure captions for the bifurcation diagrams should explicitly state the parameter ranges and the number of delay values tested.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive and detailed review. The comments highlight important aspects that will improve the clarity and substantiation of our claims. We address each major comment below and indicate the corresponding revisions.

read point-by-point responses
  1. Referee: [§3] §3 (data-driven algorithm description): The procedure for selecting embedding dimension, lags, or lifted features is not specified in a manner that demonstrates independence from the unknown delay scales; if these choices are tuned to unfold the attractor, the claim of requiring 'no information about the number and magnitude of the delays' is not yet load-bearing.

    Authors: We agree that the selection procedure for embedding parameters requires explicit clarification to support the no-prior-delay-information claim. In the current manuscript, these choices follow standard data-driven criteria (false nearest neighbors for dimension and mutual information for lags) that operate solely on the observed time series. To make this independence from delay scales load-bearing, we will revise §3 to include a dedicated subsection describing the automated, delay-agnostic selection algorithm and provide a numerical demonstration that the same procedure succeeds across different unknown delay values without retuning. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [§5] §5 (chaotic dynamics examples): The assertion that 'SSM-reduced, low-dimensional models remain predictive even for chaotic dynamics' lacks reported quantitative metrics such as normalized prediction error over multiple Lyapunov times, attractor reconstruction error, or comparison against full DDE integration; without these, the claim cannot be evaluated.

    Authors: We concur that quantitative metrics are necessary to rigorously evaluate the predictive performance for chaotic dynamics. In the revised version we will augment §5 with normalized root-mean-square prediction errors computed over multiple Lyapunov times, attractor reconstruction errors (e.g., via Hausdorff distance between reconstructed and true attractors), and direct trajectory comparisons against numerical integration of the full DDE for each chaotic example. revision: yes

  3. Referee: [experimental validation section] Final experimental section: Validation on the control-system data with feedback delay and quantization does not include details on sampling rate relative to delay, noise characteristics, or how the SSM is identified from quantized observations without prior delay knowledge, which is central to the no-prior-information guarantee.

    Authors: We acknowledge that additional experimental details are needed to substantiate the no-prior-information guarantee. We will expand the final experimental section to report the sampling rate relative to the feedback delay, the noise characteristics of the measured signals, and a step-by-step account of the SSM identification procedure applied directly to the quantized observations, confirming that no delay value or DDE structure was used at any stage. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No significant circularity in data-driven SSM reduction for delayed systems

full rationale

The paper claims a data-driven algorithm that reconstructs spectral submanifolds from raw time series to produce delay-free ODE models without any input on the DDE form, number, or magnitude of delays. No load-bearing step in the abstract or described derivation reduces a prediction to a fitted quantity by construction, nor does it rely on self-citations for uniqueness or ansatz smuggling. The central result is presented as an application of extended SSM theory to data, remaining independent of the target outputs. This matches the default expectation for non-circular papers and the reader's assessment of minimal circularity risk.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

0 free parameters · 1 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on the validity of the recent SSM extension to DDEs and on the assumption that data alone suffices to identify the reduced model for the systems tested.

axioms (1)
  • domain assumption The recent extension of spectral submanifold theory to delay differential equations is valid for the nonlinear systems considered.
    The abstract states that the method uses this extension as its foundation.

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