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Conditional Testing based on Localized Conformal p-values

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arxiv 2409.16829 v1 pith:5FBAP5UR submitted 2024-09-25 stat.ME stat.ML

classification stat.MEstat.ML
keywords conditionalp-valuesconformallocalizedscreeningtestingcontroldefine
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In this paper, we address conditional testing problems through the conformal inference framework. We define the localized conformal p-values by inverting prediction intervals and prove their theoretical properties. These defined p-values are then applied to several conditional testing problems to illustrate their practicality. Firstly, we propose a conditional outlier detection procedure to test for outliers in the conditional distribution with finite-sample false discovery rate (FDR) control. We also introduce a novel conditional label screening problem with the goal of screening multivariate response variables and propose a screening procedure to control the family-wise error rate (FWER). Finally, we consider the two-sample conditional distribution test and define a weighted U-statistic through the aggregation of localized p-values. Numerical simulations and real-data examples validate the superior performance of our proposed strategies.

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  1. Conformal changepoint localization

    stat.ME 2026-02 accept novelty 6.0 of 10

    If pre- and post-change segments are exchangeable, CONCH returns a 1-α confidence set for the changepoint, and with a likelihood-ratio score the set's normalized length tends to zero.

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