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The Low Effective Spin of Binary Black Holes and Implications for Individual Gravitational-Wave Events

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arxiv 2001.06051 v2 pith:6QZUQWDJ submitted 2020-01-16 astro-ph.HE

classification astro-ph.HE
keywords binaryspinblackeffectiveholedistributioneventsgravitational-wave
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal
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abstract

While the Advanced LIGO and Virgo gravitational-wave experiments now regularly observe binary black hole mergers, the evolutionary origin of these events remains a mystery. Analysis of the binary black hole spin distribution may shed light on this mystery, offering a means of discriminating between different binary formation channels. Using the data from Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first and second observing runs, here we seek to carefully characterize the distribution of effective spin among binary black holes, hierarchically measuring the distribution's mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$ while accounting for selection effects and degeneracies between spin and other black hole parameters. We demonstrate that the known population of binary black holes have spins that are both small, with $\mu \sim 0$, and very narrowly distributed, with $\sigma^2 \leq 0.07$ at 95% credibility. We then explore what these ensemble properties imply about the spins of individual binary black hole mergers, re-analyzing existing gravitational-wave events with a population-informed prior on their effective spin. The binary black hole GW170729, which previously excluded effective spin equal to zero, is now consistent with zero effective spin at ~10% credibility. More broadly, we find that uninformative spin priors generally yield overestimates for the effective spin magnitudes of compact binary mergers.

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Cited by 7 Pith papers

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  1. Uncovering Hierarchical Sub-Population of Binary Black Holes

    astro-ph.HE 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A flexible six-component fit to 259 LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA black-hole mergers finds a roughly geometric sequence of mass peaks but no aligned-spin signal except in the lowest-mass component.

  2. Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation

    gr-qc 2026-04 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Single-event GW parameter estimates under reference priors are population-biased; hierarchical, population-informed re-analysis is needed and changes the identification of the most extreme black holes in the catalog.

  3. Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements

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    Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component...

  4. Disentangling spinning and nonspinning binary black hole populations with spin sorting

    gr-qc 2025-07 conditional novelty 5.0 of 10

    Spin sorting with the default spin model distinguishes spinning and nonspinning binary black hole populations in simulations and shows real data rule out a fully nonspinning population but allow mixed ones with up to ...

  5. Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation

    gr-qc 2026-04 unverdicted novelty 4.0 of 10

    Population-informed hierarchical parameter estimation is required for unbiased astrophysical interpretation of gravitational-wave events rather than using standard individual posteriors with reference priors.

  6. The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins

    gr-qc 2026-06 conditional novelty 1.0 of 10

    A decade of gravitational-wave data shows most merging stellar-mass black holes have small spins, with subdominant fast-spinning, misaligned, and hierarchical-merger populations.

  7. The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins

    gr-qc 2026-06 unverdicted

    A review summarizing formation-channel predictions, waveform effects, and population-level constraints on stellar-mass black hole spins from the first decade of gravitational-wave observations.

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