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Climate network and complexity based El Ni\~no forecast for 2022
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The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of interannual global climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently, we have developed two approaches for the early forecasting of El Ni\~no. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Ni\~no event about 1 year ahead. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Ni\~no event in the calendar year before. Here we communicate the forecasts of both methods for 2022.
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Cited by 1 Pith paper
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Climate network and complexity approach predict neutral ENSO event for 2025
The paper forecasts a neutral ENSO event for 2025/26, with 69.6% probability, based on climate-network and complexity methods plus an ONI-based logistic regression.
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