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arxiv: 1511.07472 · v3 · pith:7KD5MF6Snew · submitted 2015-11-23 · 🧮 math.DS

Mixed mode oscillations of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation

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keywords oscillationbehaviorburstingclimateensomixedmodemodel
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Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combined with recently developed mathematical tools for fast-slow systems we show that decadal ENSO bursting behavior can be explained as a Mixed Mode Oscillation (MMO), which also predicts a critical threshold for rapid amplitude growth. It is hypothesized that the MMO dynamics of the low-dimensional climate model can be linked to a saddle-focus equilibrium point, which mimics a tropical Pacific Ocean state without ocean circulation.

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