Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing

As of 16 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 38 of 38 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:1908.02843.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
1908.02843 v1

Coverage vector

measured 38 of 38 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.162584Z

measured 38 of 38 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

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measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

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Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

38 of 38 outbound references displayed

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verified fuzzy37
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External citation measurements

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Outbound references

Observation d20a1f95-3a21-4838-8e68-24ec9c058a4e · outbound

This paper cites Absolute humidity modulates inﬂuenza survival, transmis- sion, and seasonality.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Absolute humidity modulates inﬂuenza survival, transmis- sion, and seasonality

Reference 1

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.772221Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 9ef14e41-6b21-48f1-a455-64862a31dce7 · outbound

This paper cites Patterns of spread of inﬂuenza A in Canada.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Patterns of spread of inﬂuenza A in Canada

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.758625Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 990b0039-c3a5-490d-843c-4fa632ab0bf9 · outbound

This paper cites Epidemiological eﬀects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Epidemiological eﬀects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates

Reference 3

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.744568Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 88257265-71ef-42a2-a8c1-3bbcd11caeca · outbound

This paper cites Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

Reference 4

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.728206Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 2195c9b2-935f-4600-bee1-0c2618bcdbd4 · outbound

This paper cites Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.715645Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 5fbb03c6-7eaf-48dc-aed1-686a8897b3ae · outbound

This paper cites A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics

Reference 6

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.700765Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation d4ad5a9f-1fd1-44d3-ac7e-9d9ed1514508 · outbound

This paper cites Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.687417Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 8b12ba33-9a49-40ee-a7b1-19306531ce81 · outbound

This paper cites Eﬀects of school closure on incidence of pandemic inﬂuenza in Alberta, Canada.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Eﬀects of school closure on incidence of pandemic inﬂuenza in Alberta, Canada

Reference 8

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.669886Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation 4eaeb466-f734-4fef-8f0b-eec3baeae729 · outbound

This paper cites An age-structured model of pre- and post-vaccination measles trans- mission.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing An age-structured model of pre- and post-vaccination measles trans- mission

Reference 9

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.656885Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 9ddc8a47-2e58-4772-84cb-136785dfe070 · outbound

This paper cites Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.644664Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 6886ae6d-8dba-45a1-a218-ca956d82d068 · outbound

This paper cites Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology

Reference 11

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.631614Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation d8da0e7a-022d-4243-a8dd-39fb0a6c7637 · outbound

This paper cites Periodicity in epidemiological models.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Periodicity in epidemiological models

Reference 12

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.617271Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 30846e9a-89f7-4d30-835d-f93f2fa0939d · outbound

This paper cites Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.582534Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 6577cc5c-d913-4918-bbde-3e7150967b5b · outbound

This paper cites The mathematics of infectious diseases.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing The mathematics of infectious diseases

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.567653Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 071a8f7c-ab55-48b6-b708-bfc3e34de99a · outbound

This paper cites Dynamical resonance can ac- count for seasonality of inﬂuenza epidemics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Dynamical resonance can ac- count for seasonality of inﬂuenza epidemics

Reference 15

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.547183Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation fd18ff5e-9c26-4100-a3db-7e10fb04f517 · outbound

This paper cites Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics

Reference 16

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.532560Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 8be205f7-acfc-4b1f-86c3-b1709790112a · outbound

This paper cites Transients and attractors in epidemics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Transients and attractors in epidemics

Reference 17

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.515710Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation df19d802-441d-48c5-be3a-0499f9114b94 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Unresolved cited work

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.596606Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 898d417b-ab30-49a9-abe8-e3c4d3731c72 · outbound

This paper cites Interepidemic intervals in forced and unforced SEIR models.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Interepidemic intervals in forced and unforced SEIR models

Reference 19

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.500491Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation f35929e2-19ce-44e6-babf-9703a7d4c0e0 · outbound

This paper cites A Century of Transitions in New York City’s Measles Dynamics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing A Century of Transitions in New York City’s Measles Dynamics

Reference 20

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.481414Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 149d9bc6-8e60-4e4f-9dd8-bcbcc166d9b9 · outbound

This paper cites Epidemic threshold conditions for seasonally forced SEIR models.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Epidemic threshold conditions for seasonally forced SEIR models

Reference 21

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.461916Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation b9b172fc-8f97-4b73-8ebc-7a737c05f907 · outbound

This paper cites Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: With Applications to Physics, Biology, Chemistry, and Engineering

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.448544Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 56e2acf7-c9ba-4f2f-a9bb-6f818a17a720 · outbound

This paper cites Elements of applied bifurcation theory.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Elements of applied bifurcation theory

Reference 23

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.434466Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation cdd5df86-fa42-42b2-bb88-7615eac30c72 · outbound

This paper cites Simulating, analyzing, and animating dynamical systems: a guide to XPPAUT for researchers and students.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Simulating, analyzing, and animating dynamical systems: a guide to XPPAUT for researchers and students

Reference 24

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.420246Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation d3573b5e-6b8c-4a81-91ad-62a256e0a07c · outbound

This paper cites Inﬁnite subharmonic bifurcation in an SEIR model.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Inﬁnite subharmonic bifurcation in an SEIR model

Reference 25

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.404941Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation e71fc128-8e11-4b92-b800-09fdd4cc67e8 · outbound

This paper cites Melnikov analysis of chaos in a simple epidemiological model.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Melnikov analysis of chaos in a simple epidemiological model

Reference 26

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.388791Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 45030431-3369-4a68-b956-e4493cf7371a · outbound

This paper cites Eﬀects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Eﬀects of the infectious period distribution on predicted transitions in childhood disease dynamics

Reference 27

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.372755Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 73ac634c-ddd2-42d7-b6f6-455ab7e350c9 · outbound

This paper cites Measles in England and Wales — I: An Analysis of Factors Underlying Seasonal Patterns.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Measles in England and Wales — I: An Analysis of Factors Underlying Seasonal Patterns

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.356484Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 1b12e444-ab89-4eab-bf83-f00d7f62fa49 · outbound

This paper cites Parameterizing state- space models for infectious disease dynamics by generalized proﬁling: measles in Ontario.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Parameterizing state- space models for infectious disease dynamics by generalized proﬁling: measles in Ontario

Reference 29

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.340726Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation a4e5d246-2c00-42e6-962e-d68353eccdd6 · outbound

This paper cites Predicting epidemiological transitions in infectious disease dynamics: Smallpox in historic London (1664-1930) [PhD].

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Predicting epidemiological transitions in infectious disease dynamics: Smallpox in historic London (1664-1930) [PhD]

Reference 30

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.327178Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 96b3285b-327a-4538-853d-d154c2057b60 · outbound

This paper cites Fast estimation of time-varying transmission rates for infectious diseases [MSc].

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Fast estimation of time-varying transmission rates for infectious diseases [MSc]

Reference 31

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.309667Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation c5343c39-36d8-449a-9c61-bf44e0ce4385 · outbound

This paper cites Understanding Nonlinear Dynamics.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Understanding Nonlinear Dynamics

Reference 32

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.294651Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 8970e679-d1f0-482e-a825-4f5d8a044961 · outbound

This paper cites The Geometry of Biological Time.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing The Geometry of Biological Time

Reference 33

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.279783Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation c2ac4cd9-8a9f-4ae3-9f5e-a7233af7d9cd · outbound

This paper cites Multiple attractors, catastrophes and chaos in seasonally perturbed predator-prey communities.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Multiple attractors, catastrophes and chaos in seasonally perturbed predator-prey communities

Reference 34

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.264418Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 5481fccf-8946-4b90-a99d-bd2a8f3233f8 · outbound

This paper cites A universal bifurcation diagram for seasonally perturbed predator-prey models.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing A universal bifurcation diagram for seasonally perturbed predator-prey models

Reference 35

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.248923Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 05e9309b-7bff-4b93-a5a0-130690055e64 · outbound

This paper cites Seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae explained as a periodically forced predator-prey system.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae explained as a periodically forced predator-prey system

Reference 36

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.231614Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 592c3564-3879-426b-83a0-c3c56a925aef · outbound

This paper cites Bifurcations and chaos in a periodic predator-prey model.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing Bifurcations and chaos in a periodic predator-prey model

Reference 37

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.218166Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

Observation 2f486997-0015-423e-957f-cde9ccb8e0e5 · outbound

This paper cites birth folds.

Invariant predictions of epidemic patterns from radically different forms of seasonal forcing birth folds

Reference 38

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-14T14:36:34.202796Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00.

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