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An Improved and Extended Bayesian Synthetic Control

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arxiv 2103.16244 v1 pith:E6YJW267 submitted 2021-03-30 stat.ME stat.AP

classification stat.MEstat.AP
keywords modelbayesiancontroldatalatentsyntheticabadieadding
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An improved and extended Bayesian synthetic control model is presented, expanding upon the latent factor model in Tuomaala 2019. The changes we make include 1) standardization of the data prior to model fit - which improves efficiency and generalization across different data sets; 2) adding time varying covariates; 3) adding the ability to have multiple treated units; 4) fitting the latent factors within the Bayesian model; and, 5) a sparsity inducing prior to automatically tune the number of latent factors. We demonstrate the similarity of estimates to two traditional synthetic control studies in Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller 2010 and Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller 2015 and extend to multiple target series with a new example of estimating digital website visitation from changes in data collection due to digital privacy laws.

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Cited by 1 Pith paper

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  1. Bayesian Donor Set Selection in Synthetic Controls

    stat.ME 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    A Gamma–Bernoulli hierarchical prior lets Bayesian synthetic controls select donors and put exact zeros on excluded units while staying on the simplex, with posterior consistency and better recovery of sparse donors i...

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