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arxiv: 1907.04357 · v1 · pith:E7GJ2VAPnew · submitted 2019-07-09 · ⚛️ physics.soc-ph

A geothermal hydro wind PV hybrid system with energy storage in an extinct volcano for 100% renewable supply in Ometepe, Nicaragua

Fausto A. Canales , Jakub K. Jurasz , Alexandre Beluco This is my paper

Pith reviewed 2026-05-24 23:51 UTC · model grok-4.3

classification ⚛️ physics.soc-ph
keywords geothermalpumped storage hydropowerhybrid renewable energyOmetepe Nicaraguaenergy storage100% renewableHOMER modelisolated power system
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The pith

Geothermal serves base load in the Ometepe hybrid renewable system, cutting required solar, wind and storage capacity while lowering excess electricity.

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The paper evaluates how capital costs of renewables affect the optimal mix and cost of energy for a fully renewable isolated power system on Ometepe island. It adapts the HOMER model to simulate pumped storage hydropower that uses the extinct volcano's crater lake as upper reservoir together with geothermal, wind and PV. When geothermal is included it meets base load, which shrinks the needed size of the other resources, reduces storage volume and cuts excess generation. Without geothermal the poor time complementarity between wind and solar forces solar and wind parks up to 6.5 times peak demand, which raises both cost of energy and wasted electricity. The configurations show that economic parameters of the technologies matter at least as much as the raw resource data.

Core claim

When geothermal is considered, this technology is able to serve the base load of the system, reducing the required installed capacity of other resources, as well as decreasing the storage requirements and excess electricity production. When the geothermal option is not included, the low complementarity in time of the other variable resources increases the required size of the solar and wind parks, amounting to up to 6.5 times the peak power, consequently rising the cost of energy and excess electricity production. The different system configuration results demonstrated that economic aspects of renewable generation are at least as important as the natural resources availability.

What carries the argument

Adapted HOMER model that adds pumped-storage hydropower (crater lake as upper reservoir) and geothermal plants to optimize the hybrid renewable configuration and cost of energy.

If this is right

  • Geothermal serving base load reduces installed capacity needed from solar, wind and storage.
  • Storage volume and excess electricity both fall when geothermal is present.
  • Without geothermal, solar and wind must be sized up to 6.5 times peak power due to low time complementarity.
  • Cost of energy rises when geothermal is omitted.
  • Economic parameters of the technologies are as decisive for the optimal mix as the physical resource availability.

Where Pith is reading between the lines

These are editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • Volcanic islands with crater lakes could apply the same pumped-storage approach to other hybrid renewable designs.
  • The results imply that dispatchable geothermal or similar base-load renewables may be the cheapest way to shrink oversized variable-resource plants on small grids.
  • Similar modeling could test whether adding geothermal changes the economics of 100 percent renewable systems in other isolated locations with mixed resources.

Load-bearing premise

The capital costs, resource time series and demand profile fed into the adapted HOMER model are accurate enough to produce realistic optimal sizes and costs for Ometepe.

What would settle it

Year-long field measurements of electricity demand, wind, solar and geothermal output on Ometepe that show the model's chosen mix fails to meet 100 percent renewable supply or exceeds the predicted cost of energy.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 1907.04357 by Alexandre Beluco, Fausto A. Canales, Jakub K. Jurasz.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Figure 1: Schematic diagram of the proposed hybrid system for Ometepe Island. ‘MADERAS’, ‘Converter’ and DC bus bar jointly simulate the use of the Maderas’ crater lake as an upper reservoir in a PSH plant. Additionally, HOMER is able to estimate the harmful pollutant emissions that could be reduced by shifting to power systems with high percentages of non-combustion renewables. Besides compelling de￾veloped countri… view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. Figure 2: Satellite image showing the region of the island of Ometepe in Nicaragua [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p007_2.png] view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Figure 3: Solar resource inputs for Ometepe. In order to limit the land-use requirements for the solar power plant, the maximum size considered for the solar park was set at 30 MW. According to the information available at [45], the land requirements for a PV solar park could range between 0.89 to 4.90 ha/MW, with a capacity-weighted average of 2.80 m²/MW. Ometepe total area is 276 km² (27,600 hectares) [47], meanin… view at source ↗
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Wind resource inputs for Ometepe. Ometepe is one of the regions with significant wind power potential in Nicaragua [49]. However, the only relevant wind parks of the country are located in Rivas, a few kilometers (~30 km) from the island. Amayo wind farm, which started operating Phase I in 2009, and Phase II in 2010, has an installed capacity of 63 MW, corresponding to 30 SUZLON S88 wind turbines of 2.1 MW… view at source ↗
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Scaled load profiles for the case study. 3.6. Additional considerations Besides the information previously described for the resources and components of the system, there are some additional considerations and assumptions that must be included in the HOMER model in order to run the simulation for the proposed 100% renewable system. The lifetime of the project and equipment was assumed as 20 years, a common… view at source ↗
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: Optimization space for the systems with geothermal power plant. Because of the small size required for the upper reservoir of the PSH, the environmental and eco￾nomic aspects would be extremely important to determine if PSH is the better option for energy storage and backup power for this system configuration, instead of actual battery banks or using fuel plants for serving intermediate and peak loads. Alt… view at source ↗
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: shows the average monthly electrical production. The total installed capacity for this case, not including PSH turbines, is 7MW (the peak load for the system is ≈4MW). From December to April, the wind speed regime at Ometepe would allow to serve the most part of the load using Wind Power. For this scenario, the average capacity factor for the wind turbines is 36.9%, and 53.5% for geothermal, with this latt… view at source ↗
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Optimization space for the systems without geothermal power plant. Based on the results shown in [PITH_FULL_IMAGE:figures/full_fig_p015_8.png] view at source ↗
read the original abstract

Renewable resources are constantly increasing their share in energy systems around the world. This paper evaluates how the capital cost of renewable technologies affects the optimal configuration and cost of energy of an isolated power system, comprising only renewable resources. HOMER software was adapted to include and simulate pumped storage hydropower and geothermal power plants. Ometepe island, Nicaragua, was selected as case study because wind, solar and geothermal resources are available, but more importantly, it has an extinct volcano with a crater lake on its top that could be used as the upper reservoir for pumped storage hydropower. When geothermal is considered, the results show that this technology is able to serve the base load of the system, reducing the required installed capacity of other resources, as well as decreasing the storage requirements and excess electricity production. When the geothermal option is not included, the low complementarity in time of the other variable resources increases the required size of the solar and wind parks , amounting to up to 6.5 times the peak power, consequently rising the cost of energy and excess electricity production. The different system configuration results demonstrated that economic aspects of renewable generation are at least as important as the natural resources availability.

Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, simulated authors' rebuttal, and a circularity audit. Tearing a paper down is the easy half of reading it; the pith above is the substance, this is the friction.

Referee Report

3 major / 2 minor

Summary. The paper claims that an adapted HOMER model for a 100% renewable hybrid system (geothermal, wind, PV, and pumped-storage hydro using an extinct volcano's crater lake) on Ometepe, Nicaragua, shows geothermal serving base load and thereby reducing required capacities of variable renewables, storage size, and excess electricity; without geothermal the low temporal complementarity forces solar/wind installations up to 6.5 times peak demand, raising cost of energy. Economic parameters are asserted to be at least as decisive as resource availability.

Significance. If the central simulation result is robust, the work provides a concrete island-scale demonstration that geothermal can materially shrink storage and overbuild needs in hybrid systems when suitable geology exists, while also illustrating the dominance of capital-cost assumptions over raw resource data in determining optimal mixes. The choice of a real volcanic site for upper-reservoir storage is a practical strength.

major comments (3)
  1. [Abstract / Results] Abstract and Results: the directional claim that geothermal 'reduc[es] the required installed capacity of other resources, as well as decreasing the storage requirements and excess electricity production' is presented without any accompanying numerical values, confidence intervals, or sensitivity ranges on the exogenous capital costs and resource time series that drive the optimization.
  2. [Methodology] Methodology: the adaptation of HOMER to incorporate geothermal and pumped-storage constraints is described but no validation against benchmark test cases, published HOMER outputs, or measured Ometepe data is supplied, so the quantitative cost-of-energy and capacity figures rest on an unverified model extension.
  3. [Results] Results: no tables or figures explore how the reported optimum shifts when geothermal capital cost or capacity factor is varied by margins typical for early-stage geothermal site data (e.g., ±30 %), leaving the base-load advantage vulnerable to input uncertainty.
minor comments (2)
  1. [Methodology] The demand profile and hourly resource time series are stated to be inputs but their sources, temporal resolution, and any gap-filling procedures are not detailed.
  2. [Figures / Tables] Figure captions and table headings should explicitly state whether the configurations include or exclude geothermal so that the two scenarios can be compared at a glance.

Simulated Author's Rebuttal

3 responses · 0 unresolved

We thank the referee for the constructive comments on our manuscript. We address each major comment below and outline the revisions we will make to strengthen the paper.

read point-by-point responses

  1. Referee: [Abstract / Results] Abstract and Results: the directional claim that geothermal 'reduc[es] the required installed capacity of other resources, as well as decreasing the storage requirements and excess electricity production' is presented without any accompanying numerical values, confidence intervals, or sensitivity ranges on the exogenous capital costs and resource time series that drive the optimization.

    Authors: We agree that the abstract and results would benefit from explicit numerical values. In the revised manuscript we will insert the key quantitative outcomes (e.g., percentage reductions in wind/PV capacity, storage volume, and excess generation) directly into the abstract and expand the results section with the corresponding figures. Full confidence intervals are outside the deterministic scope of the study, but we will add a short discussion of input uncertainty linked to the new sensitivity analysis described below. revision: yes

  2. Referee: [Methodology] Methodology: the adaptation of HOMER to incorporate geothermal and pumped-storage constraints is described but no validation against benchmark test cases, published HOMER outputs, or measured Ometepe data is supplied, so the quantitative cost-of-energy and capacity figures rest on an unverified model extension.

    Authors: The referee correctly notes the lack of external validation. We will add a dedicated validation subsection that compares the adapted model against standard HOMER hybrid-system test cases and published benchmark results for geothermal integration. Measured Ometepe data for a combined geothermal-pumped-hydro system do not exist, as the study is prospective; we will therefore limit validation to literature benchmarks and internal consistency checks. revision: partial

  3. Referee: [Results] Results: no tables or figures explore how the reported optimum shifts when geothermal capital cost or capacity factor is varied by margins typical for early-stage geothermal site data (e.g., ±30 %), leaving the base-load advantage vulnerable to input uncertainty.

    Authors: We concur that sensitivity to geothermal cost and capacity-factor assumptions is essential. The revised manuscript will include new tables and figures that systematically vary geothermal capital cost and capacity factor by ±30 % and report the resulting changes in optimal capacities, storage size, cost of energy, and excess electricity. This will directly address the robustness of the base-load advantage. revision: yes

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged

No circularity: results are forward simulation outputs from exogenous inputs

full rationale

The paper adapts HOMER to simulate an isolated renewable system on Ometepe using supplied capital costs, resource time series, and demand profile as direct inputs. Optimal capacities, storage sizes, and cost-of-energy values are produced by the optimization run; none of the reported results reduce by the paper's own equations or self-citations back to parameters defined inside the manuscript. No self-definitional, fitted-input-as-prediction, or load-bearing self-citation patterns are present. The derivation chain is self-contained against external benchmarks.

Axiom & Free-Parameter Ledger

4 free parameters · 2 axioms · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on standard energy-modeling inputs whose values are not derived inside the paper.

free parameters (4)
  • Capital and O&M costs for each technology
    Used as direct inputs to the optimization; determine which configurations are chosen and the reported cost of energy.
  • Hourly wind, solar, and geothermal resource time series
    Drive the complementarity analysis and the size of the variable renewable fleet.
  • Electricity demand profile
    Shapes the base-load versus peak requirements that geothermal is said to meet.
  • Round-trip efficiency and reservoir limits for pumped storage
    Control how much storage capacity is needed when geothermal is absent.
axioms (2)
  • domain assumption HOMER's dispatch logic and optimization routine remain valid after the authors' modifications for pumped storage and geothermal
    The paper states that HOMER was adapted but supplies no verification that the new plant types are modeled without internal inconsistencies.
  • domain assumption The chosen discount rate, project lifetime, and reliability constraints produce economically meaningful optima
    Standard in HOMER studies but not re-derived here.

pith-pipeline@v0.9.0 · 5755 in / 1518 out tokens · 23993 ms · 2026-05-24T23:51:36.123192+00:00 · methodology

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