Lower bounds for the variance of sequences in arithmetic progressions: primes and divisor functions

We develop a general method for lower bounding the variance of sequences in arithmetic progressions mod $q$, summed over all $q \leq Q$, building on previous work of Liu, Perelli, Hooley, and others. The proofs lower bound the variance by the minor arc contribution in the circle method, which we lower bound by comparing with suitable auxiliary exponential sums that are easier to understand. As an application, we prove a lower bound of $(1-\epsilon) QN\log(Q^2/N)$ for the variance of the von Mangoldt function $(\Lambda(n))_{n=1}^{N}$, on the range $\sqrt{N} (\log N)^C \leq Q \leq N$. Previously such a result was only available assuming the Riemann Hypothesis. We also prove a lower bound $\gg_{k,\delta} Q N (\log N)^{k^2 - 1}$ for the variance of the divisor functions $d_k(n)$, valid on the range $N^{1/2+\delta} \leq Q \leq N$, for any natural number $k \geq 2$.