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Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

As of 12 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 12 of 12 outbound references and 2 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2411.17694.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2411.17694 v5

Coverage vector

measured 12 of 12 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.430021Z

measured 14 of 14 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00

measured 2 of 2 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-05-10T18:35:40.421621Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-11T16:46:11.655972Z

Reference resolution

12 of 12 outbound references displayed

  • verified exact1
  • verified fuzzy8
  • unresolved3
  • parse uncertain0
  • malformed identifier0
  • metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 1d45ee42-7b42-42d2-a05e-7fc81cc32a54 · outbound

This paper cites and Scaife, A.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts and Scaife, A

Reference 1

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.716454Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

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Observation 4b875bfc-2688-4616-91dd-c6e28ec50253 · outbound

This paper cites inflation.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts inflation

Reference 3

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.661016Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.405290Z digest=sha256:da3f91256e0fff73c27746abe12f059b470d3d10885fbd001ccdefd087ed9b74

Observation 3a2da4ac-d647-4e4f-bef6-29e15ae6f3f9 · outbound

This paper cites Error bars or dashed lines represent the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of distributions derived by bootstrap resampling (with replacement) from the available start dates 500 times.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Error bars or dashed lines represent the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of distributions derived by bootstrap resampling (with replacement) from the available start dates 500 times

Reference 9

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.635458Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.417911Z digest=sha256:912d9c91f3c5674561478cbeb231dc904d7d189558c9060e643b0a2467ee7dca

Observation d9fd2f1d-5fef-4433-bf08-2a6dd2dbe085 · outbound

This paper cites (e, f) As panels (c) and (d) but calculated using onlyM= 20independent cases.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts (e, f) As panels (c) and (d) but calculated using onlyM= 20independent cases

Reference 10

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.648528Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.413933Z digest=sha256:44041afa6b449eb58c0054f45497a0643e58d4ab383081497146a381faa7950e

Observation 7f884d50-1a36-47d1-aea6-f41888e8ca6b · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Unresolved cited work

Reference 11

Resolution
unresolved
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.622045Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.421671Z digest=sha256:b2a10050cc32c1c07bc6856acf48783b719fa563e0ff9a12ab318da6f64cd228

Observation 73c07b06-a0f1-4646-bb70-24793701fbc2 · outbound

This paper cites (7) rmo from eq.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts (7) rmo from eq

Reference 12

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.609495Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.425926Z digest=sha256:fd4b42c4eff422f71cec2037658b68d7941afecdb80e18796ff54c9180c52d6e

Observation 63b32595-b501-4d9e-bd6f-7a78e54641fb · outbound

This paper cites Signal-To-Noise Paradox.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Signal-To-Noise Paradox

Reference 13

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.672487Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

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Observation 1a7adb13-91dc-441d-8afd-bd4f2382f08f · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Unresolved cited work

Reference 14

Resolution
unresolved
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.597621Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

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Observation 92c64466-3129-4afe-923f-6b50e16c6004 · outbound

This paper cites C., Appenzeller, C., Eckert, P.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts C., Appenzeller, C., Eckert, P

Reference 28

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.682755Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.397150Z digest=sha256:fac1344da698b5fa0b9dd0d038e18af0e05dfd15a12a39d769b2e825babf7efe

Observation c64186da-716c-4023-8111-f975bdd8ff4c · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Unresolved cited work

Reference 57

Resolution
unresolved
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.706439Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

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Observation fe360e10-2ceb-4d07-88be-4e82fbdda5ce · outbound

This paper cites Yamaguchi, M., Lang, S.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts Yamaguchi, M., Lang, S

Reference 100

Resolution
verified exact
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.585472Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

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Observation cbee89db-645b-4079-83f8-12a1b3c6914c · outbound

This paper cites J., Yarnal, B.

Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts J., Yarnal, B

Reference 194

Resolution
verified fuzzy
raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-12T11:59:01.694911Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-08-12T11:59:01.393535Z digest=sha256:e79f2f670e27708b084baaa496558ff82aa614d474cdafd88e7d194c0d121f4c

Pith citing papers

Observation 3a20cd95-ade1-400d-b154-8c4cfa571c94 · inbound

Ensemble size effects on conditional reliability estimates: slope attenuation bias and correction methods cites this paper.

Ensemble size effects on conditional reliability estimates: slope attenuation bias and correction methods Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

Reference 23

Resolution
verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-06-30T02:16:06.821041Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

source=pdf_text observed=2026-05-10T18:35:40.421621Z digest=sha256:eabc2618c1426d79ce4d7b3edd2e4ae6d846cf28923c1c72b5c18e60db88b5bd

Observation d7754489-2f22-40ec-b6cb-1cc24006872d · inbound

The role of the oceans for subseasonal prediction: insights from eddy-permitting and eddy-rich coupled forecast systems cites this paper.

The role of the oceans for subseasonal prediction: insights from eddy-permitting and eddy-rich coupled forecast systems Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

Reference 93

Resolution
verified exact
arxiv_id, observed 2026-06-30T02:16:06.821041Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-12T06:34:41.77262+00:00.

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