A Refined Conjecture For Factoring Iterates Of Quadratic Polynomials Over Finite Fields

Jones and Boston conjectured that the factorization process for iterates of irreducible quadratic polynomials over finite fields is approximated by a Markov model. In this paper, we find unexpected and intricate behavior for some quadratic polynomials, in particular for the ones with tail size one. We also propose a multi-step Markov model that explains these new observations better than the model of Jones and Boston.