Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events

As of 13 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 20 of 20 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2501.04880.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2501.04880 v1

Coverage vector

measured 20 of 20 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.209651Z

measured 20 of 20 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

20 of 20 outbound references displayed

verified exact1
verified fuzzy11
unresolved8
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 9e4ac8e9-3247-4dcf-8f63-46ce722a7d65 · outbound

This paper cites Foundations of futures studies, volume 1: Human science for a new era (Vol.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Foundations of futures studies, volume 1: Human science for a new era (Vol

Reference 1

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.499212Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation d4690dac-1e82-47af-8194-8e1f60eab2e5 · outbound

This paper cites The art of conjecture.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events The art of conjecture

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.486494Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 62fcf707-e9a2-4ef0-a440-edfeec94c0e0 · outbound

This paper cites Trends in Integration of Knowledge and Large Language Models: A Survey and Taxonomy of Methods, Benchmarks, and Applications.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Trends in Integration of Knowledge and Large Language Models: A Survey and Taxonomy of Methods, Benchmarks, and Applications

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.138025Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c5da92e8-1ce7-4683-88ef-7e73df558c49 · outbound

This paper cites Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.142535Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation bb365a76-d792-4d1b-9d1a-1879910ed3d5 · outbound

This paper cites DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.147465Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 5247578f-144c-4488-8483-9e007299feb7 · outbound

This paper cites Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Reasoning and Tools for Human-Level Forecasting

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.151946Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f33257e2-39b7-4e29-bcc8-97750baef392 · outbound

This paper cites GPT-4o System Card.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events GPT-4o System Card

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.156813Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 840b0fcb-1b2a-4301-8566-252f023c96ab · outbound

This paper cites and Beam, A., 2023.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events and Beam, A., 2023

Reference 8

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.473404Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 5d51c40b-4162-4cfc-a8f0-9e0d73747a81 · outbound

This paper cites BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.164614Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ae7e3198-1360-4a52-80e9-04b33e0fc468 · outbound

This paper cites and Fenn, J., 2003.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events and Fenn, J., 2003

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.459954Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation fa7371c7-b49a-4d08-a94b-b1f4b0247291 · outbound

This paper cites When Not to Use Generative AI.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events When Not to Use Generative AI

Reference 11

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.447439Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 437c4a61-2110-4619-b0f1-059b87ea3e69 · outbound

This paper cites and Astels, S., 2017.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events and Astels, S., 2017

Reference 12

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.433426Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation c98d29a5-ffab-4967-8209-0488567c8cf1 · outbound

This paper cites LLMs Are Superhuman Forecasters.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events LLMs Are Superhuman Forecasters

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.420358Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation d964c1ff-ca19-4e6a-a17b-3d12c01c6328 · outbound

This paper cites and Sutskever, I., 2018.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events and Sutskever, I., 2018

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.408361Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 53233642-6cf1-45b9-ab2d-eb94f2510aee · outbound

This paper cites Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy

Reference 15

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.189593Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 1aef7ce8-fb15-43ac-af96-13af5df8dfa1 · outbound

This paper cites doi: 10.5281/zenodo.7908658.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events doi: 10.5281/zenodo.7908658

Reference 16

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.250957Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation f28c5332-5547-4284-b186-7d6675504d96 · outbound

This paper cites and Marshall, J., 2024, February.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events and Marshall, J., 2024, February

Reference 17

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.395061Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation f7a5fb86-81a0-4548-930f-4a47177c7871 · outbound

This paper cites Future shock, 1970.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Future shock, 1970

Reference 18

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.382240Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 6d999bc2-b4ff-45e3-aa1e-6e01cceb64db · outbound

This paper cites Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.205522Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2475dcb1-f4e3-49c9-b71a-b344b13065cc · outbound

This paper cites c/N o h ğ gL# @| ũN 1 : WrR1ܻj6|N @ǙN u+ʳ&/ c/_-|P @N :7 ě& +f, Z5 \ o2' t ˵WI M >V c)/s `i v, t,E 1 7Q u n n +hq[ I. ' R' 낧S4 v257ei jɓE s|4.

Leveraging Log Probabilities in Language Models to Forecast Future Events c/N o h ğ gL# @| ũN 1 : WrR1ܻj6|N @*ǙN u+ʳ&/ c/_-|P @N :7 ě& *+f, Z5 \ o2' t ˵WI M >V c)/s `i v, t,E 1 7Q u n n +hq[ I. ' R' 낧S4 v257ei jɓE s|4

Reference 20

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T21:26:47.370218Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.