Integrated probability of coronary heart disease subject to the -308 tumor necrosis factor-alpha SNP: a Bayesian meta-analysis

We present a meta-analysis of independent studies on the potential implication in the occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD) of the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at the -308 position of the tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) gene. We use Bayesian analysis to integrate independent data sets and to infer statistically robust measurements of correlation. Bayesian hypothesis testing indicates that there is no preference for the hypothesis that the -308 TNF-alpha SNP is related to the occurrence of CHD, in the Caucasian or in the Asian population, over the null hypothesis. As a measure of correlation, we use the probability of occurrence of CHD conditional on the presence of the SNP, derived as the posterior probability of the Bayesian meta-analysis. The conditional probability indicates that CHD is not more likely to occur when the SNP is present, which suggests that the -308 TNF-alpha SNP is not implicated in the occurrence of CHD.