Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting

As of 13 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 48 of 48 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2507.23163.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2507.23163 v2

Coverage vector

measured 48 of 48 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.192665Z

measured 48 of 48 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

48 of 48 outbound references displayed

verified exact6
verified fuzzy32
unresolved9
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier1
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 9c55e31d-543f-483b-9ae7-17966aa8f7ec · outbound

This paper cites Humans vs Large Language Models: Judgmental Forecasting in an Era of Advanced AI.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Humans vs Large Language Models: Judgmental Forecasting in an Era of Advanced AI

Reference 1

Resolution: verified exact; local_arxiv, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.298300Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 2ed20022-6ed9-4848-a05d-0fbecb516fb8 · outbound

This paper cites Evaluation of arguments in weighted bipolar graphs.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Evaluation of arguments in weighted bipolar graphs

Reference 2

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:47.563656Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 199e852e-23f9-4103-8e95-4d5f0ae807b6 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:47.316170Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 90074b7f-dcea-4601-8d35-f856e7ff10a2 · outbound

This paper cites Towards artificial argumentation.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Towards artificial argumentation

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.079291Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 9132dfc3-a7dd-4e7f-863b-254035a33c5c · outbound

This paper cites Handbook of Formal Argumentation.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Handbook of Formal Argumentation

Reference 5

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:47.034488Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 9d5b404b-cfb6-4105-8b5b-3ae53cea5e12 · outbound

This paper cites From fine-grained properties to broad principles for gradual argumentation.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting From fine-grained properties to broad principles for gradual argumentation

Reference 6

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:46.630936Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 9d0a072b-a05d-4de4-bdab-a337be493aeb · outbound

This paper cites Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E

Reference 7

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:46.312327Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation e6e23831-4854-40e9-97fe-dad03a5b96b7 · outbound

This paper cites Developing expert political judgment.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Developing expert political judgment

Reference 8

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:46.062511Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 83c62ab1-8f10-4144-a0f0-160b824524af · outbound

This paper cites The Llama 3 Herd of Models.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting The Llama 3 Herd of Models

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.093891Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation b35b41a2-8458-4745-982c-8cbcdea94202 · outbound

This paper cites Budescu, David Mandel, and Mark Himmelstein.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Budescu, David Mandel, and Mark Himmelstein

Reference 10

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.494351Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 8953b05b-5481-4366-a905-bc94a6a4e5c7 · outbound

This paper cites Argumentative large language models for explainable and contestable claim verification.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Argumentative large language models for explainable and contestable claim verification

Reference 11

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.275000Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation b3f86975-f6da-4fb7-ac21-abddcbd83478 · outbound

This paper cites Moran, Nicholas G.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Moran, Nicholas G

Reference 12

Resolution: malformed identifier; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.102318Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 04c3fe2e-a0f6-41a0-92c2-069da933428a · outbound

This paper cites FORECAST2023: A forecast and reasoning corpus of argumentation structures.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting FORECAST2023: A forecast and reasoning corpus of argumentation structures

Reference 13

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:45.736978Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation dfcfc3cd-debc-45d2-8000-474510ba3b12 · outbound

This paper cites Argucast: A system for online multi-forecasting with gradual argumentation.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Argucast: A system for online multi-forecasting with gradual argumentation

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:45.539809Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 6b2090a2-ffd9-4094-a513-8033305c2a1c · outbound

This paper cites Argumentatively coherent judgmental forecasting.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Argumentatively coherent judgmental forecasting

Reference 15

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:45.336196Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 9c627e5b-66a6-4ecd-aad2-f39598f9c702 · outbound

This paper cites Approaching human-level forecasting with language models.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Approaching human-level forecasting with language models

Reference 16

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:45.169100Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 79deabec-7a6c-41ea-b603-f354ca433850 · outbound

This paper cites Ho, David V.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Ho, David V

Reference 17

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:44.976985Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation de5cf6b9-33d8-475d-a504-6c45d9cacda6 · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting argumentation frameworks.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Forecasting argumentation frameworks

Reference 18

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:44.813917Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 4a3f68f2-236e-418d-bc4d-45ba0ea92bd4 · outbound

This paper cites Mistral 7B.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Mistral 7B

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.119036Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation a7059f33-d98c-4ad4-b842-6fa6f2525e3d · outbound

This paper cites Mixtral of Experts.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Mixtral of Experts

Reference 20

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.122006Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation f994a918-13d0-415d-9181-44d45f178529 · outbound

This paper cites Zhang, Xiaoming Shi, Pin - Yu Chen, Yuxuan Liang, Yuan - Fang Li, Shirui Pan, and Qingsong Wen.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Zhang, Xiaoming Shi, Pin - Yu Chen, Yuxuan Liang, Yuan - Fang Li, Shirui Pan, and Qingsong Wen

Reference 21

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:44.591866Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 1e8b5122-d3b8-40ad-a54e-872781a41562 · outbound

This paper cites Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Thinking, Fast and Slow

Reference 22

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:44.407067Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 1eb1948a-75c1-4cf5-828f-4f51ceeb89d3 · outbound

This paper cites Karvetski, Kenneth C.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Karvetski, Kenneth C

Reference 23

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.391568Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation ff918bd4-ffd0-4511-9902-63d4960293f7 · outbound

This paper cites Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T

Reference 24

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:44.242043Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation bb92709e-26d7-4de4-9eda-31b45828ad4a · outbound

This paper cites Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years

Reference 25

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:44.025113Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation f5f0fcbb-1b12-495b-89bb-3956e8c8b7b7 · outbound

This paper cites Argumentation mining: State of the art and emerging trends.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Argumentation mining: State of the art and emerging trends

Reference 26

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:43.860034Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 68ea4a77-0896-4666-b1f9-e07eb745f321 · outbound

This paper cites Taming pre-trained LLMs for generalised time series forecasting via cross-modal knowledge distillation.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Taming pre-trained LLMs for generalised time series forecasting via cross-modal knowledge distillation

Reference 27

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:43.622067Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 58b69c7e-0d83-4ff0-acde-4ef00b8df472 · outbound

This paper cites Note on the sampling error of the difference between correlated proportions or percentages.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Note on the sampling error of the difference between correlated proportions or percentages

Reference 28

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:43.435730Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation d923d633-a105-47fa-adc1-7ea654a1a282 · outbound

This paper cites Olivares, Geoffrey N \' e giar, Ruijun Ma, O.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Olivares, Geoffrey N \' e giar, Ruijun Ma, O

Reference 29

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:43.197999Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 503731ba-91f9-4824-9427-ceecc87a040d · outbound

This paper cites Gpt-4o mini: advancing cost-efficient intelligence, 2024.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Gpt-4o mini: advancing cost-efficient intelligence, 2024

Reference 30

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:43.083928Z

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No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation dbdd5f95-069f-4a47-bd0e-091204549276 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Unresolved cited work

Reference 31

Resolution: unresolved; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:42.912306Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 397854e3-364b-484d-ac81-a070f8705f63 · outbound

This paper cites Rothschild, Andrew Gordon, Zak Evernden, and Ekaterina Damer.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Rothschild, Andrew Gordon, Zak Evernden, and Ekaterina Damer

Reference 32

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:42.755229Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 83aaf19d-1089-490c-be0d-ba1735ac8316 · outbound

This paper cites Interpreting neural networks as quantitative argumentation frameworks.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Interpreting neural networks as quantitative argumentation frameworks

Reference 33

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.246510Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 382d1a32-7812-4e1e-a588-b4d9362170fe · outbound

This paper cites Discontinuity-free decision support with quantitative argumentation debates.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Discontinuity-free decision support with quantitative argumentation debates

Reference 34

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:42.596716Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 966e2c2d-fd29-4abc-ab48-dd0d41d77ccf · outbound

This paper cites Interactive explanations by conflict resolution via argumentative exchanges.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Interactive explanations by conflict resolution via argumentative exchanges

Reference 35

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:42.391953Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation e4334683-0d54-479e-a293-eb2acf9fbc2c · outbound

This paper cites Werner, Konstantinos Benidis, Pedro Mercado, Jan Gasthaus, and Tim Januschowski.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Werner, Konstantinos Benidis, Pedro Mercado, Jan Gasthaus, and Tim Januschowski

Reference 36

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:42.227904Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 89198267-8c0e-4e4c-a87f-e06038bcdae9 · outbound

This paper cites Coherent probabilistic forecasting of temporal hierarchies.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Coherent probabilistic forecasting of temporal hierarchies

Reference 37

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:42.059665Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 6e953722-06b9-48ab-bdcf-561e27305631 · outbound

This paper cites Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament

Reference 38

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.166925Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

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Observation a41e317f-25e1-4713-b2c7-d01f20d99e06 · outbound

This paper cites AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy

Reference 39

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.169619Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 2129a479-bb84-4a76-aea1-510cbf1da23c · outbound

This paper cites Time series forecasting with LLMs : Understanding and enhancing model capabilities.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Time series forecasting with LLMs : Understanding and enhancing model capabilities

Reference 40

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.900087Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 2f960cc3-3259-461a-822e-bc865536a838 · outbound

This paper cites Tetlock and Dan Gardner.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Reference 41

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.765863Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 4c8a4aa5-4576-4b10-ac80-a01ca555c757 · outbound

This paper cites Tetlock, Barbara A.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Tetlock, Barbara A

Reference 42

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.679161Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 295b7aa3-1c47-4317-a0e6-cd7d7df09bbb · outbound

This paper cites Thomson, Andrew C.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Thomson, Andrew C

Reference 43

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.640943Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 0a1914bf-3601-40a2-8a90-5c75eb9c32c6 · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation

Reference 44

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.606320Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 41264db7-2c2a-471a-b591-7843d5428bb5 · outbound

This paper cites Wallsten and David V.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Wallsten and David V

Reference 45

Resolution: verified exact; doi, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.219653Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation f5ce2837-dada-489d-965e-7ed17bd58840 · outbound

This paper cites Abbas, David V.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Abbas, David V

Reference 46

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.573718Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation 9ddcbbfc-f6c6-4097-b4d4-ba8da584c841 · outbound

This paper cites Retrieval-augmented generation for ai-generated content: A survey.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting Retrieval-augmented generation for ai-generated content: A survey

Reference 47

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.533345Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-13T06:32:02.005865+00:00.

Observation ec811cdd-e183-4ac2-90ba-c6b42c59c05f · outbound

This paper cites write newline.

Argumentatively Coherent Judgmental Forecasting write newline

Reference 48

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-06T11:07:41.192665Z

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Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.