ATC Taskload Inherent to the Geometry of Stochastic 4-D Trajectory Flows with Flight Technical Errors

A method to quantify the probabilistic controller taskload inherent to maintaining aircraft adherence to 4-D trajectories within flow corridors is presented. An Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of the aircraft motion and a Poisson model of the flow scheduling are introduced along with reasonable numerical values of the model parameters. Analytic expressions are derived for the taskload probability density functions for basic functional elements of the flow structure. Monte Carlo simulations are performed for these basic functional elements and the controller taskload probabilities are exhibited.