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COSMIC Variance in Binary Population Synthesis
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abstract
The formation and evolution of binary stars is a critical component of several fields in astronomy. The most numerous sources for gravitational wave observatories are inspiraling and/or merging compact binaries, while binary stars are present in nearly every electromagnetic survey regardless of the target population. Simulations of large binary populations serve to both predict and inform observations of electromagnetic and gravitational wave sources. Binary population synthesis is a tool that balances physical modeling with simulation speed to produce large binary populations on timescales of days. We present a community-developed binary population synthesis suite: COSMIC which is designed to simulate compact-object binary populations and their progenitors. As a proof of concept, we simulate the Galactic population of compact binaries and their gravitational wave signal observable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We find that $\sim10^8$ compact binaries reside in the Milky Way today, while $\sim10^4$ of them may be resolvable by LISA.
Forward citations
Cited by 7 Pith papers
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Binary disruptions driven by massive disks around massive black holes
Disk torques can drive stellar binaries around a massive black hole to tidal disruption, and the Milky Way's young stellar disk likely caused ~10^2 such events ~5 Myr ago.
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Stellar mergers with mass ratio q≳0.3 in young clusters can produce blue-supergiant progenitors that leave black holes with dimensionless spins a≃0.5–0.8, reducing post-merger retention and hierarchical-merger rates.
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Modeling all significant correlations with the nonparametric model PixelPop recovers the true black-hole merger rate in a simulated 400-event gravitational-wave catalog, while simpler models introduce bias.
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A review of population synthesis: the codes, the environments, and the predicted rates and features of gravitational wave sources, with an emphasis on breaking degeneracies.
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